Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

t6p said:
Keep it coming, Shark. I learn a ton from reading your posts. The wealth of knowledge in this thread is pretty amazing and I'm sure there are others who agree with me.
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Cheers T. I wasn't planning on stopping, though. Even if some of the things I type are directly out of my ass. I love this shit too much at this time of year. Every race is a puzzle, but when we are trying to project forward a month or two it becomes way more so. It's loads of fun, and if we can discover some useful things along the way that nobody is doing then that makes it even better.
 
Tapwrit, who was 2nd in the Sam Davis a few weeks ago, is another horse that has some nice length in his stride and seems to do a pretty good job maintaining that length to the line. I had him at 24-24.5 strides per furlong in the early running of that race, and then finishing the final furlong with 25.5 strides. That was after he was sitting fairly close to a pretty solid pace in the early going. His race previous to that he covered the final furlong in 26 strides.

With this latest news about McCraken having to miss the Tampa Bay Derby next Saturday I would imagine Tapwrit will go off the favourite in that race. But he could be another guy to keep an eye on as the distances get longer over the next month or two.
 
Neither One Liner, who won the Southwest a couple of weeks ago, or Girvin, who won the Risen Star this past weekend, have much length in their strides. Both are at 26.5 strides per furlong in the early going with One Liner finishing the final furlong in 29 strides and Girvin finishing in 29.5 strides. Girvin's early pace was on the slow side with One Liner's early pace more toward the faster side based on how both tracks were playing. Both also had pretty much perfect trips in those races. If this stuff means anything as we get into the 9F preps later this month then those two could be vulnerable, especially Girvin. Or maybe both if One Liner continues along the Oaklawn path and enters the Arkansas Derby since either American Anthem or Mastery is very likely to show up there.
 
Nyquist - 26.5
Exaggerator - 27.5
Creator - 26
Gun Runner - 27.5
Destin - 27

American Freedom - 26.5
Connect - 27

Those are the stride rates over the final furlong for the best 3 year-olds in America last year once May rolled around with the first five illustrating their final prep before the Derby and the other two in their final prep before the Haskell. If you have a stride rate at the end of a 9F race of 26.5 then you can win at the 10F distance of the Derby or over the same distance in the Travers if Arrogate is not entered. If you have a stride rate of 26 at the end of a 9F race then you can win a 12F Belmont Stakes. If you have a stride rate of 25 over the final furlong of a 10F race like Arrogate did in both the Travers and Classic then I don't know what to say except you're a fucking freak. Seriously. If you have a stride rate of 29 or so at the end of a race then don't fret, you can still run on Derby. In the G3 Pat Day Mile that is.
 
Gunnevera is 5/1 over here, is it worth me pulling the trigger?
 
gcoogan1 said:
Gunnevera is 5/1 over here, is it worth me pulling the trigger?
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That's a pretty decent price on him, G, although I have a suspicion that he drifts up even a little more by tomorrow. Maybe throw half your planned wager at him now and then hit the other half tomorrow?

I'm also liking that #1 horse, Huracan Americo, a little too maybe run on at the end and grab a piece. Hard to see him winning all things considered, but I could see him coming along to finish 2nd or 3rd at big odds. He was 50/1 on the morning line. Will probably be bet to about 30/1 tomorrow I'm guessing, although maybe he gets ignored completely. Who knows. He's interesting, though, as a late runner who's already won at 12F as a two year-old. He probably didn't beat anything in that race, but it's still impressive enough considering the field he beat had 5-7 months maturity on him and he had to do it over that distance. When Tomcito finished 3rd in the Florida Derby some years ago he was coming out of the same race as this one here, and both had the same trainer. Similar running style to Tomcito as well, although Huracan Americo seems like he doesn't sit as far back in the early running. He might have the best length to his stride in the field as well with him only needing 27 strides to cover the final furlong of that 12F race. If he's in decent/good physical condition for tomorrow he won't be getting tired, and with the early speed types in this race, he just might be able to take advantage of that at a big price. First time Lasix as well, which can be a productive betting angle often enough. This guy has a few things to like about him. Way more than what's needed to like a typical 50/1 shot. I'll definitely be using him.
 
The Fountain of Youth runners ranked in order based on my interest in betting them as far as their chances to hit the board as I see it, and with their odds being considered as well.

1 - Gunnevera
2 - Huracan Americo
3 - Made You Look
4 - Three Rules
5 - Practical Joke

Because the Gotham looks like such a tough race to go against the favourite save for the #8 So Conflated, I'm likely going to take some of my Gotham budget and add it to the Fountain of Youth with some exactas and maybe a couple of tris just for the hell of it. We'll see.
 
Fountain of Youth;

- Gunnevera to win (4u)
- Huracan Americo to show (2u)
- Gunnevera over Huracan Americo/Made You Look in a couple of exactas (0.5u each)


Gotham;

So Conflated to win (2u)


Those are what I'm planning for tomorrow's races for sure, although I'm going to be adding something whether it be a couple of tris or increase a wager or two.
 
"Irish War Cry is a leggy Chestnut colt with a bright white star on his forehead. The colt was born in May, so technically, he’s still a two year old.The colt is well-balanced and not overly muscular. The colt has a smooth gallop, average leg extension and a naturally high cruising speed. Irish War Cry’s head and neck don’t stretch parallel to his body while running full out, a sign of a slightly upright shoulder and an indication that he could be vulnerable at longer distances.

Irish War Cry He has been a little green in all three starts, ducking out in his debut and going off course slightly in the stretch of the Holy Bull, and he was overeager in the Maryland Stakes. He’s still a bit immature and will need to focus better as race distances lengthen."

http://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...ucky_Derby_Irish_War_Cry_Pedigree_Profile_123

Similar observations to what I tried to make in this thread, although this observation here is from a lady who makes her living studying the pedigree and conformation of race horse whereas I'm just a schmuck trying to win a buck or two.
 
There's not a man alive who can pay the rent when getting 6/5.
 
Huracan Americo winning at 12F as a two year-old;



The last quarter mile was timed in 26.10, but considering where Huracan Amercio was positioned with a quarter mile to go he probably ran that last segment in less than 25.5 seconds. Just based on raw timing, that's a good final quarter time in the 12F Belmont Stakes (faster than Tonalist did it a couple years ago, and only a couple ticks slower than Creator last year) nevermind for a immature two year-old. He only needed 54 strides to cover that amount of ground as well or 27 for the last furlong. Tomorrow's distance might be too short for him considering, but if a fast and contested pace materializes up front then this guy should be passing a lot of tired horses late in the running.
 
Doesn't change how I see the race, but I'm reading that Beasely is likely scratched for the Fountain of Youth and will instead run in the Tampa Bay Derby next weekend. Probably a smart move considering the other speed signed on here. The bright side is that will be one less dead tired horse that Gunnevera will have to maneuver around when they hit the far turn. Same for the other two I'll be playing.
 
Sharkey said:
Fountain of Youth;

- Gunnevera to win (4u)
- Huracan Americo to show (2u)
- Gunnevera over Huracan Americo/Made You Look in a couple of exactas (0.5u each)


Gotham;

So Conflated to win (2u)


Those are what I'm planning for tomorrow's races for sure, although I'm going to be adding something whether it be a couple of tris or increase a wager or two.
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I'm going to add a El Areeb over So Conflated exacta for 1u in the Gotham tomorrow even though it's not likely to pay a whole lot. Feels on the safe side against this bunch, though.
 
great info as always, do you play any other races on the card or just the big one?
 
gcoogan1 said:
great info as always, do you play any other races on the card or just the big one?
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I occasionally play other races on the card, but those tend to be on the spot plays when I go down to the OTB to get my main bets in. e.g. I may make a little $10 bet on some horse that looks good in the post parade for a race that's on the screen while I'm down there. Or some horse that has good long odds that the groom has prettied up some with braids and everything thinking it's going to get it's picture taken. Some basic visual handicapping stuff mainly. I may bet another race or two in a day, but I won't spend more than a 5-10 minutes reading the PP's and handicapping those. Those tend to be last minute plays of mine too just before I head out the door to get my other bets in.
 
Stride rate of the top 4 Derby finishers over the last five years measured over the final furlong of their last prep before the Derby. I think it's very interesting what this says.


2012; 1st - I'll Have Another 26.5, 2nd - Bodemeister 27.5, 3rd - Dullahan 26, 4th - Went The Day Well 27.5

2013; 1st - Orb 26, 2nd - Golden Soul 27 (taken from Derby itself since he was too far back in final prep to get a count), 3rd - Revolutionary 27.5, 4th - Normandy Invasion 27

2014: 1st - California Chrome 26.5, 2nd - Commanding Curve 27*, 3rd - Danza 27, 4th - Wicked Strong 27

2015; 1st - American Pharoah 26, 2nd - Firing Line 27.5, 3rd - Dortmund 26.5, 4th - Frosted 27

2016 - 1st - Nyquist 26.5, 2nd - Exaggerator 27.5, 3rd - Gun Runner 27.5, 4th - Mohaymen 27.5 (taken from Fountain of Youth since he was too far back in Florida Derby)

* Commanding Curve finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby that year. The horse that beat him that time, Vicar's In Trouble, had a stride count of 32 over the last furlong in winning the race. Vicar's In Trouble then went on to finish last in the Derby that year.


None of the top 4 finishers in the Derby over that span had a stride count in the last furlong of more than 27.5 in their final prep save for maybe Mohaymen. I don't know about you guys, but I think it could definitely mean something going forward into the 9F preps and into the Derby itself.
 
It's simple logic right? All things being equal, the more strides you have to take to cover a certain amount of ground the more work you have to do. The more work you have to do the more tired you're going to get. The more tired you get the less effective you'll be in races that demand endurance from you.
 
That link I gave out earlier today on Irish War Cry's pedigree says he may carry the large heart gene based on his pedigree. Well, so do most of this year's crop who've made a name for themselves so far. American Anthem has that cross in his pedigree. Mastery does too. As does Gunnevera. Tapwrit, McCraken, Classic Empire, One Liner, El Areeb all do as well. As do others. It's quite common in recent years to get that cross bred into a horse through the female side of their family.
 
super tough card in Meydan today
like Jungle Cat in the sprint at 2/1
Also Folkswood in the last at a good price 11/2
 
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