Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 27, 2016.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    That was close. Had a shot right down to the end with that #4 horse there at 13/1, but ended up finishing a half length back of 2nd.
     
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  2. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Go the trip I wanted with that #7 horse in the 6th race at Parx with her being all alone on the lead throughout. Got tired late, though, and could only manage 3rd in the end at 11/1. Not that these two are paying me anything with these results, but at least they are outrunning their odds by quite a bit.
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    ==========

    Race 8 at Thistledown;

    #6 Candy Ruler 4/1 - 259.0
    #3 Late Run 5/1 - 191.2
    #13 Beija Boo 6/1 - 173.8
    #4 Shes Packing 12/1 - 170.0

    #5 Dyna Wynn 8/1 - 156.4
    #2 Jazz Session 12/1 - 154.8
    #7 Tinca's Bird 10/1 - 151.2
    #9 Forgotten Heritage 8/1 - 144.8
    #8 The Cake and I 15/1 - 137.4
    #11 Flying to Star 20/1 - 132.0

    ==========

    I have no idea what the #6 horse in doing in this race unless... Well, this seems like an obvious sucker play for me as it looks like the horse has a giant "For Sale" sign attached to his ass end. Dropping from 16k and 20k allowance races at tracks like Santa Anita and Del Mar all the way down to a cheap 5k claimer at Thistledown? And for a high percentage trainer like Radosevich? That seems well beyond just a "suspicious drop in class" to me. That screams of a horse gone sour (hasn't raced or even worked out since early May) and "We'll take whatever we can get for her at this point" hoping there is a sucker out there willing to buy her on the cheap. Something smells really bad with this entrance, especially when it's a trainer like Radosevich making this move. If he doesn't want her and is willing to give her away so easily, then I'm not sure why anybody else would either. Especially at the price she is going to go off at. She'll be bet and bet heavily by the public I'm sure just based on her PP's looking a hundred times better than all the rest in the race. Maybe she can still win, though, even if she has gone sour as there really isn't much in this race at all. I have to try to beat this one, though, just because it smells like fish bait and I'm not biting.

    The #3 horse is also going to be a play against for me as that one also hasn't had a race or workout since the beginning of May too. But this one's drop in class seems more reasonable without the red flags the #6 horse has. Just question it's conditioning having not been on the track for a race or workout for some time. The #4 and #13 are the two I'm most interested in. Both are in form right now having both run 2nd at this level of racing just two weeks ago. The #4 horse is actually 0-1-3 in 5 starts at this level in her most recent races, and does have the tactical ability to sit close to the pace early, which according to Matt Hook yesterday, was where you needed to be on this track recently. The track bias stats in the PP's also say the same thing. 81% of the races at this distance over the track have been won by those that can sit on or close to the lead. This #4 can do that atleast (been sitting 2nd and 3rd early in recent races), although her overall quality is questionable in a field of questionable quality. The #13 certainly looks like the better win candidate of the two and the one with the upside in the field. She's in form right now having ran 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in her last three races. A new pace top in her last race. Making her 3rd start off the layoff with an upwards pattern with her last figure higher than her previous one. She's only behind the vulnerable #6 horse in most statistical categories. Has enough early speed to not get outrun early and to stay in contact with the leaders. Won her only start at this distance. Finished 1st and 2nd in her only two starts at this track. Best late pace number in the field if she does find herself in a position to win late. Outside horses who are in form and have enough early speed to get a decent position into the turn in these sprint races are what I've been playing for the most part the last couple of months, and this #13 horse does fit that concept. I am a little concerned that she could get caught too wide as she she may not have enough early speed to clear for a good spot early. But with the #6 sure to get bet a ton, the price may be worth the risk. I may play both these horses horses in this race. The #4 to possibly place/show, and then the #13 to win/place just because of the money the #6 horse is sure to take.
     
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  4. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Degenerate win bet on the #8 horse here in race 7 at Thistledown.
     
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  5. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Shit, a photo. Not sure I get this.
     
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  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Lost by a whisker to the big favourite. Shitty deal. Wanted to bet this #8 horse today based on my outside speed in sprint races concept, but the #7 horse worried me. But when that #7 horse broke through the gate at the start and was still allowed to race I had to take my chances on the #8 seeing as how the #7 probably wouldn't have the energy to keep up early after breaking through (and it didn't). Damn, I should be getting paid for this.
     
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  7. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Based on the multi-race will pays this #10 horse with the "suspicious drop in class" notation in the 10th at Parx will be about 1/5, maybe 2/5 in the race. Just wished there was a better win bet candidate to try to beat than one than this #3 Dusty Street who's currently 15/1 with 5 mins to post.
     
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  8. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Yeah, that #3 horse sucked right there and my recent hatred for betting closers is confirmed once again.
     
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  9. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Need this final race at Thistledown to keep me from being shut out on the day.
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    The #3 wins and then the #5 beats me out of my place bet in the last couple of strides in the race at Thistledown. The #6 horse ran poor at 3/5, so at least I read that one right for a small moral victory. Close all throughout the day save for that one race at Parx with the #3 horse and nothing to show for it.
     
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  11. Black Paladin

    Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    @Sharkey
    I talked about Saratoga opening, but I forgot that we need all hands on deck to start Del Mar (Wednesday, July 18) as well.
     
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  12. Black Paladin

    Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    Turf Special:

    Belmont - Race #8
    6
    TEAM OF TEAMS - Jockey: CASTELLANO Trainer: JERKENS
    This horse is the speed of the race by far. It is a six (6) furlong turf race, and that speed will come in handy.
     
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  13. Black Paladin

    Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    I guess the pressure was too much for him: he scratched. I am looking for another selection.
     
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  14. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    We'll try to crush all the tracks, BP. Saratoga, Del Mar, etc. I've been really busy with work the last couple of weeks, so I haven't been posting any plays. Have only played a few spot races on the weekend the past couple of weeks actually. But we'll get back into it before too long.
     
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  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    @ImNotSurpisedDonks!

     
  16. Black Paladin

    Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    Saratoga!

    "Get it how you live!"--random New Orleans illegal pharamaceutical rep

    Race 1:

    WIN/PLACE #4 Tuco Bravo (12/1)
     
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  17. ImNotSurpisedDonks!

    ImNotSurpisedDonks! Silver Belt

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    Wow! Surprised he gave him up. You were right about Asmussen tho! Will be sure interesting to see if he is able to rebound in style or no.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2018
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Shit, I thought Saratoga was starting tomorrow, BP. Not today. I can't play along with you today because of work and all, but best of luck to you with this play bud. I'm going to try to play at least a couple/few races there tomorrow, though.
     
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  19. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    We'll see. For the horse and his fans' sake, leaving the decision making entirely up to Asmussen betters the chances of Bolt rebounding. He'll be patient with the horse and find him an easier allowance race or two to build him back up if Bolt has some semblance of a will to race left. But Ruis is still the owner, so he ultimately calls the shots and may want the horse returning to the richer stakes races sooner rather than later. This is a good first step, though. Or second step as Ruis did make a good decision to give Bolt a rest on the farm.
     
  20. ImNotSurpisedDonks!

    ImNotSurpisedDonks! Silver Belt

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    Question is: what can Asmussen do with just four months? Bolt is being retired at the end of this season and sent to Spendthrift.

    Even for Ruis this is good, as if he does not do good, it vindicates him, and if he does do good, then he makes more money. I'm frankly kind of shocked he even tried training him, as I was looking at Ruis' history and he always employed top notch trainers like Aidan Obrien w\ previous horses. Then one day, a light bulb must have went off in his head, and he thought: ''This is so simple! Anyone can do this!" and started training all of his own horses. It will be interesting to see how he does tho, as I feel he already damaged him too greatly and there is not enough time to straighten him out. He should run at four, but he will not (I hate modern racing. It's all about the breeding shed and racing means nothing),
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2018
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