Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Bravazo vs Lone Sailor is an epic matchup of head to head matchups.

Get those bets in!

 

[t6p]

5dimes has odds up for the Derby:

Justify +370
Mendelssohn +470
Magnum Moon +650
Audible +670
Bolt D'oro +750
Good Magic +900
Vino Rosso +1400
My Boy Jack +1500
Solomini +2000
Enticed +2150
Noble Indy +2250
Quip +3000
Hofburg +3000
Flameaway +3000
Free Drop Billy +3500
Gronkowski +4000
Lone Sailor +4500
Promises Fulfilled +5000
Bravazo +5000
Firenze Fire +5500
Snapper Sinclair +5750
Combantant +6000
Restoring Hope +7500
Reride +8500

 

[t6p]

Anything catch your eye there @Sharkey? Maybe a stab at Hofburg at 30/1?

 

[Sharkey]

Anything catch your eye there @Sharkey? Maybe a stab at Hofburg at 30/1?

Do they lock you into the play regardless if the horse scratches pre-race or not, T?

If not, and you're protected that way then I'd say sure. It's not every year when you're going to see an improving Florida Derby runner-up like Hofburg, whose also one of the horses better suited for the 10F distance, be offered up at 30/1. He's probably closer to 20/1 on the day of the Derby I'm thinking. Maybe even a touch below 20/1 since he has the looks of a horse who may pick up some late steam with the sharpies.

If you are locked into the play then I'd wait just because there is a chance he doesn't make it into the race even if healthy just because his trainer, Bill Mott, is as conservative as it gets. Mott rarely enters horses in races they don't have a chance in.

Beyond Hofburg I'd say the other three horses I like (Justify, Audible, Vino Rosso) are going to go off at similar odds on Derby day as what you're offered there.

 

[t6p]

Do they lock you into the play regardless if the horse scratches pre-race or not, T?

If not, and you're protected that way then I'd say sure. It's not every year when you're going to see an improving Florida Derby runner-up like Hofburg, whose also one of the horses better suited for the 10F distance, be offered up at 30/1. He's probably closer to 20/1 on the day of the Derby I'm thinking. Maybe even a touch below 20/1 since he has the looks of a horse who may pick up some late steam with the sharpies.

If you are locked into the play then I'd wait just because there is a chance he doesn't make it into the race even if healthy just because his trainer, Bill Mott, is as conservative as it gets. Mott rarely enters horses in races they don't have a chance in.

Beyond Hofburg I'd say the other three horses I like (Justify, Audible, Vino Rosso) are going to go off at similar odds on Derby day as what you're offered there.

Thanks bud. Yea, you're locked into the play even if the horse doesn't run so I'll hold off.

I think they put up odds where the horse must run for action closer to the race. I'll take another look then.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks bud. Yea, you're locked into the play even if the horse doesn't run so I'll hold off.

I think they put up odds where the horse must run for action closer to the race. I'll take another look then.

It's probably best, T. I mean, there is a high probability that Hofburg will be in the race, but I wouldn't want your money to be dead on him since he does have a better chance than most of not being in the gates just because of the trainer. You guys generally find some good lines with the books anyways in the days immediately before the race, so who knows, you may still get a good 25/1 or even 30/1 price on him once you have assurance that he will in fact run.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

If you do end up playing them, hopefully you play the exactas and trifectas a little different than I do since I'm very likely to lose. If you play them a little different with maybe one or two different horses sprinkled in there then that obviously ups the chances that at least one of us wins. Lots of options this year. Justify will be the clear favourite, but people out there have been touting 7 or 8 other horses who may have a chance to upset him. People are considering all but a few (Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire, Gronkowski) as at least being underneath options. Even if Justify does win the payouts for the exacta and trifecta could be quite good just because people are seeing so many usable options in the race. The story of Gronkowski buying into Gronkowski is going to be one of the stories that will be talked about quite often leading up to the race, and as such we'll be seeing tons of dead money bet on that absolute no-hoper. That one may go off at 15/1 or something like that when it's true odds say it should be 1500/1. We usually see one of those "stories" that get way overbet each year. Last year it was the one-eyed Patch who I think left the gates at something close to 13/1 when he should've been 130/1.

 

[t6p]

@t6p

If you do end up playing them, hopefully you play the exactas and trifectas a little different than I do since I'm very likely to lose. If you play them a little different with maybe one or two different horses sprinkled in there then that obviously ups the chances that at least one of us wins. Lots of options this year. Justify will be the clear favourite, but people out there have been touting 7 or 8 other horses who may have a chance to upset him. People are considering all but a few (Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire, Gronkowski) as at least being underneath options. Even if Justify does win the payouts for the exacta and trifecta could be quite good just because people are seeing so many usable options in the race. The story of Gronkowski buying into Gronkowski is going to be one of the stories that will be talked about quite often leading up to the race, and as such we'll be seeing tons of dead money bet on that absolute no-hoper. That one may go off at 15/1 or something like that when it's true odds say it should be 1500/1. We usually see one of those "stories" that get way overbet each year. Last year it was the one-eyed Patch who I think left the gates at something close to 13/1 when he should've been 130/1.

I think that makes all makes sense Shark. I’ll have to give some thought. No UFC next week so I should have time to look closer at the race.

 

[Sharkey]

I think that makes all makes sense Shark. I’ll have to give some thought. No UFC next week so I should have time to look closer at the race.

There's options there for you, T, if you do want to go slightly different than me. Maybe you opt for a high ceiling horse like Magnum Moon or Mendelssohn to include in your exotics. Or maybe a high floor horse like Good Magic or somebody to round out your trifecta or super. Or one of those likable hard tryers like Flameaway, Solomini, or My Boy Jack to round out the same. We got a pretty strong group of 3 year-olds this year, so there's options for you.

Ideally I'd like both of us to win of course. But I'm also gonna be playing very narrowly, so if you play it a little different covering more finishing options then there's a lot better chance at least one of us gets a good payout on the race.

 

[Sharkey]

Added Firenze Fire, Combatant (the 1st also eligible horse), and also did what I could with Mendelssohn, although I had to make some assumptions with him regarding his speed figures.


Justify (485.7): 102, 102.5, 110.5 (117 LP) - 1st - 23.9 ft - 1/0 (*6 of 7 so far*)
Audible (477.2): 89, 102, 103 (104 LP) - 1st - 23.2 ft - 2/0 (*5 of 7*)
Good Magic (474.7): 102.5, 93.5, 96.5 (93 LP) - 1st - 22.0 ft - 3/3 (*3 of 7*)
Bolt d'Oro (474.6): 95, 99.5, 106 (114 LP) - 2nd - 22.5 ft - 4/2 (*6 of 7*)
Magnum Moon (466.0): 88.5, 98.5, 98.5 (115 LP) - 1st - 24.3 ft - 3/2 (*7 of 7*)
Enticed (465.9): 82, 99.5, 96 (90 LP) - 2nd - 22.9 ft - 3/2 (*4 of 7*)
Solomini (460.9) : 97, 94, 93.5 (111 LP) - 3rd - 23.9 ft - 5/2 (*4 of 7*)
Vino Rosso (456.6): 95, 88, 100 (98 LP) - 1st - 23.8 ft - 4/0 (*5 of 7*)
Noble Indy (450.9): 89.5, 93.5, 97.5 (86) - 1st - 22.9 ft - 3/1 (*4 of 7*)
Flameaway (448.5): 97, 94.5, 95 (89) - 2nd - 22.1 ft - 5/4 (*4 of 7*)
Free Drop Billy (444.6): 94.5, 89.5, 91.5 (91) - 3rd - 22.7 ft - 4/3 (*1 of 7*)
Hofburg (439.4): 69.5, 89.5, 99 (101) - 2nd - 23.5 ft- 2/2 (*6 of 7*)
Quip (437.5): 76, 96, 93.5 (107 LP) - 2nd - 23.2 ft - 4/2 (*4 of 7*)
My Boy Jack (434.7): 95.5, 96.5, 92 (98 LP) - 1st - 23.1 ft - 3/7 (*4 of 7*)
Combatant (423.6): 93, 90.5, 93 (116 LP) - 4th - 23.2 ft - 3/5 (*4 of 7*)
Firenze Fire (419.8): 87.5, 86, 85.5 (78 LP) - 4th - ??? - 3/2 (*2 of 7*)
Bravazo (403.4): 92.5, 95.5, 70 (50 LP) - 8th - ??? - 4/4 (*1 of 7*)
Lone Sailor (401.3): 76.5, 80.5, 97.5 (94 LP) - 2nd - 23.2 ft - 5/5 (*5 of 7*)
Promises Fulfilled (381.7): 83, 100, 57 (29 LP) - 9th - ??? - 3/2 (*1 of 7*)
Mendelssohn (???): ???, ???, ??? (??? LP) - 1st - 22.8 ft - 1/2 (*4 of 7*)


For Mendelssohn I gave him credit for having earned a 95 or greater last race (safe assumption based on his Beyer and Timeform figure), having ran his best race at 9F (another safe assumption and his was at nearly 9.5F), having a late pace figure of 95 or greater (he put an additional 6+ lengths on that field late, so I think this was safe), and then of course he gets credit for the win.

 

[Sharkey]

I haven't seen the thorograph numbers for these guys yet and I'm not sure I will this year since the site I have usually gotten them from don't have them up. At least not yet anyways. But according to Steve Haskin in his latest Derby Dozen article, Justify, Audible, and Vino Rosso are all tied for 1st when it comes to having the best thorograph number out of the North American runners, and all did it in their last start. I think Mendelssohn may have earned a better number in his UAE Derby win, though, if I'm remembering correctly. I think they gave him like a -4 or something ridiculous like that.

 

[t6p]

There's options there for you, T, if you do want to go slightly different than me. Maybe you opt for a high ceiling horse like Magnum Moon or Mendelssohn to include in your exotics. Or maybe a high floor horse like Good Magic or somebody to round out your trifecta or super. Or one of those likable hard tryers like Flameaway, Solomini, or My Boy Jack to round out the same. We got a pretty strong group of 3 year-olds this year, so there's options for you.

Ideally I'd like both of us to win of course. But I'm also gonna be playing very narrowly, so if you play it a little different covering more finishing options then there's a lot better chance at least one of us gets a good payout on the race.

I hear ya bud. I’ll definitely take a look at those horses next week and see if I can come up with some combinations that I like.

I’m headed to Atlantic City tomorrow for the UFC event so hopefully with my bets on that and a little luck at the tables my bankroll will be nice and heavy for some Derby action.

 

[Sharkey]

I hear ya bud. I’ll definitely take a look at those horses next week and see if I can come up with some combinations that I like.

I’m headed to Atlantic City tomorrow for the UFC event so hopefully with my bets on that and a little luck at the tables my bankroll will be nice and heavy for some Derby action.

Is this your way of telling me you may need to borrow a few hundred bucks off me, T?

 

[Sharkey]

Just kidding, T.

Best of luck this weekend with all your wagers.

 

[t6p]

Is this your way of telling me you may need to borrow a few hundred bucks off me, T?

If I get crushed the plan is to win it all back and then some on the Derby. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Sharkey]

If I get crushed the plan is to win it all back and then some on the Derby. What could possibly go wrong?

Well...

What's your game(s) at the tables?

I tried getting into poker during the craze a decade ago. Used to get together with a small group every couple of weeks. Too random for me, though. Mind you, I did have some pretty insane luck betting the keeno machines a few times back in the 90's.

 

[t6p]

Well...

What's your game(s) at the tables?

I tried getting into poker during the craze a decade ago. Used to get together with a small group every couple of weeks. Too random for me, though. Mind you, I did have some pretty insane luck betting the keeno machines a few times back in the 90's.

I used to do hold em with some buddies too but at the casino I strictly play blackjack. I've had some decent days, more bad ones though of course haha.

 

[mkess101]

I used to do hold em with some buddies too but at the casino I strictly play blackjack. I've had some decent days, more bad ones though of course haha.

I've been lurking guys, popping in and out here. I have nothing to add, so just reading up. I figured I'd chime in now since I just won a few hundred playing blackjack tonight and T is heading out for the UFC in AC! BOL man, hope you crush it at the tables like I did tonight. I hadn't gone to the casino in awhile but a couple buddies wanted to go tonight, glad I did!

I'm actually gonna be in Vegas for the Derby, so I've been tracking what you guys have to say. I'll for sure be playing some boxed trifectas and exactas with Justify and Vino Rosso and a couple others. My wife and kid always pick one random horse too so there will be some action on what will probably be a couple random horses. I'm hoping they both pick horses with some sort of chance, but who knows...

Anyway as always thanks for all the great info. I'll keep checking back up until I leave for Vegas the day before the Derby. Let's make some $ guys!

 

[Sharkey]

I've been lurking guys, popping in and out here. I have nothing to add, so just reading up. I figured I'd chime in now since I just won a few hundred playing blackjack tonight and T is heading out for the UFC in AC! BOL man, hope you crush it at the tables like I did tonight. I hadn't gone to the casino in awhile but a couple buddies wanted to go tonight, glad I did!

I'm actually gonna be in Vegas for the Derby, so I've been tracking what you guys have to say. I'll for sure be playing some boxed trifectas and exactas with Justify and Vino Rosso and a couple others. My wife and kid always pick one random horse too so there will be some action on what will probably be a couple random horses. I'm hoping they both pick horses with some sort of chance, but who knows...

Anyway as always thanks for all the great info. I'll keep checking back up until I leave for Vegas the day before the Derby. Let's make some $ guys!

Nice job on the blackjack score, Mike. Stay hot.

 

[t6p]

I've been lurking guys, popping in and out here. I have nothing to add, so just reading up. I figured I'd chime in now since I just won a few hundred playing blackjack tonight and T is heading out for the UFC in AC! BOL man, hope you crush it at the tables like I did tonight. I hadn't gone to the casino in awhile but a couple buddies wanted to go tonight, glad I did!

I'm actually gonna be in Vegas for the Derby, so I've been tracking what you guys have to say. I'll for sure be playing some boxed trifectas and exactas with Justify and Vino Rosso and a couple others. My wife and kid always pick one random horse too so there will be some action on what will probably be a couple random horses. I'm hoping they both pick horses with some sort of chance, but who knows...

Anyway as always thanks for all the great info. I'll keep checking back up until I leave for Vegas the day before the Derby. Let's make some $ guys!

Thanks bud and congrats on the win!