Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

What's that old saying "if you think long..."?

I feel so sick right now. Nobody to blame but myself, though.

Wow Shark, I'm just catching up on the thread for the day. Really tough break for you there, sorry bud.
 
Wow Shark, I'm just catching up on the thread for the day. Really tough break for you there, sorry bud.

Ah, it's all good, T. It's my own damn fault anyways. I'll try again tomorrow in the Sunland Derby.
 
The G3 Sunland Derby for tomorrow;

==========

#3 New York Central (9/2) - 505.9
#11 Runaway Ghost (8/1) - 503.5
#10 Dream Baby Dream (10/1) - 492.6
#5 Peace (12/1) - 492.2
#9 Choo Choo (8/1) - 492.1
#4 Hollywood Star (6/1) - 490.3
#7 Prince Lucky (6/1) - 476.9
#8 Seven Trumpets (6/1) - 471.4
#1 All Out Blitz (4/1) - 468.0
#12 Fortified Effort (20/1) - 465.7
#2 Dark Vader (15/1) - 461.1
#6 Shane Zain (15/1) - 456.0

==========


Oh boy. I have no idea what I'm going to do with 6 usable options in this race, including @BluntTrauma21's old buddy Choo Choo who I know I'm going to use in some way or the other. Maybe I'll try to beat Hollywood Star out of the exacta completely since he's basically just a plodder and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes off the favourite. But he classes up pretty good with this field, though, and could have the race shape in his favour, so that might not be the smartest thing to do.

#3, #11 over #3, #11, #10, #5, #9, and #4 in some $5 exactas maybe? Yeah, maybe.
 
Lots of early speed signed on to that Sunland Derby race tomorrow. There's seven horses in the field that have at least 5 quiron early speed points indicating at least good early speed with two of those being E 8 types. Six in the field also have TimeformUS early pace figures of 100+ as opposed to only two that have those kind of late pace figures (Hollywood Star and Dream Baby Dream). The two horses with the highest early speed numbers are breaking from the #1 hole and then outside in the #11 hole, which gives added indication that they'll both be on go from the outset for fear of getting pinned down on the rail or getting caught wide on the first turn. There's a decent enough chance that this race falls apart late and opens up for one or two of the off the pace types. Hollywood Star (104), Dream Baby Dream (104), Peace (99), and Choo Choo (92) have the highest late pace ratings on TimeformUS going into this race with Brisnet showing similar.
 
My Sunland Derby plays for today;

- #10 Dream Baby Dream to win, place and show for $6/$12/$12
- #10 Dream Baby Dream with #3 New York Central, #5 Peace, #9 Choo Choo, and #4 Hollywood Star in four separate exacta boxes for $2
- #3 New York Central, #10 Dream Baby Dream, #5 Peace, and #4 Hollywood Star trifecta box for $1

This was a tough race to narrow it down, but I had to give Runaway Ghost the boot even though he ranks high on the numbers and should be a good price. Just think he may get caught up in a pace battle up front, and I didn't care for the way he conceded ground to the winner in his last race despite it being a slower pace than what he's likely to see today and that he had the preferred outside position. Might be a little cheap as far as classing up with this type of field, and also has the possibility of regressive pattern to him even without being involved in a projected fast pace today.

I like Dream Baby Dream quite a bit here obviously, as he should have a race shape in his favour for once, which he hasn't had lately. Hollywood Star benefits from that same race shape, but visually Dream Baby Dream looks like the better closer. He has a touch more early speed than Hollywood Star and has always gotten out of the gates really well in comparison. Gets blinkers added today, which should also help him get better early positioning. Also, unlike Hollywood Star who's more of a plodding sustained type, Dream Baby Dream has shown agility and better acceleration when it comes to his turn of foot. He actually has a closing kick, and should be in a better position to use it than Hollywood Star once the early leaders start to tire and the late running starts. Dream Baby Dream is also coming into this race after having literally paired up his last two races, and his numbers have also gotten better each time he was stretched out in distance. New York Central beat him last time out by just over two lengths, but that one had the rode a gold rail that day, and also sat up front over a soft pace. Dream Baby Dream got no pace to run at that day, and also had to brake hard on the backstretch when another horse in front of him started acting like a retard. He still made a nice run around the turn and into the stretch, though, making up over 3 lengths on New York Central. Dream Baby Dream was the best horse in that race to me, and it was a nice allowance field with New York Central, Trangress, Zulkifar (who was hyped up as a potential Derby contender going into that race) all running in it. The race before that, Dream Baby Dream finished 3 lengths behind Title Ready (who's a nice horse and would likely be a pretty heavy favourite in this race today) in another race where the race shape was against him from a pace standpoint. He was still able to pick up 4 lengths in the late running, though, despite not getting the pace to run at.
 
My Sunland Derby plays for today;

- #10 Dream Baby Dream to win, place and show for $6/$12/$12
- #10 Dream Baby Dream with #3 New York Central, #5 Peace, #9 Choo Choo, and #4 Hollywood Star in four separate exacta boxes for $2
- #3 New York Central, #10 Dream Baby Dream, #5 Peace, and #4 Hollywood Star trifecta box for $1

This was a tough race to narrow it down, but I had to give Runaway Ghost the boot even though he ranks high on the numbers and should be a good price. Just think he may get caught up in a pace battle up front, and I didn't care for the way he conceded ground to the winner in his last race despite it being a slower pace than what he's likely to see today and that he had the preferred outside position. Might be a little cheap as far as classing up with this type of field, and also has the possibility of regressive pattern to him even without being involved in a projected fast pace today.

I like Dream Baby Dream quite a bit here obviously, as he should have a race shape in his favour for once, which he hasn't had lately. Hollywood Star benefits from that same race shape, but visually Dream Baby Dream looks like the better closer. He has a touch more early speed than Hollywood Star and has always gotten out of the gates really well in comparison. Gets blinkers added today, which should also help him get better early positioning. Also, unlike Hollywood Star who's more of a plodding sustained type, Dream Baby Dream has shown agility and better acceleration when it comes to his turn of foot. He actually has a closing kick, and should be in a better position to use it than Hollywood Star once the early leaders start to tire and the late running starts. Dream Baby Dream is also coming into this race after having literally paired up his last two races, and his numbers have also gotten better each time he was stretched out in distance. New York Central beat him last time out by just over two lengths, but that one had the rode a gold rail that day, and also sat up front over a soft pace. Dream Baby Dream got no pace to run at that day, and also had to brake hard on the backstretch when another horse in front of him started acting like a retard. He still made a nice run around the turn and into the stretch, though, making up over 3 lengths on New York Central. Dream Baby Dream was the best horse in that race to me, and it was a nice allowance field with New York Central, Trangress, Zulkifar (who was hyped up as a potential Derby contender going into that race) all running in it. The race before that, Dream Baby Dream finished 3 lengths behind Title Ready (who's a nice horse and would likely be a pretty heavy favourite in this race today) in another race where the race shape was against him from a pace standpoint. He was still able to pick up 4 lengths in the late running, though, despite not getting the pace to run at.

I'm in. Finally not busy for a day, so I'll be watching as well. Thanks for posting and best of luck Shark!
 
1st - Runaway Ghost
2nd - Dream Baby Dream (at a very nice 16/1)
3rd - Peace

Dream Baby Dream salvaged the race for me (basically doubled my money), but once again I left money on the table by not sticking to my original plan.
 
1st - Runaway Ghost
2nd - Dream Baby Dream (at a very nice 16/1)
3rd - Peace

Dream Baby Dream salvaged the race for me (basically doubled my money), but once again I left money on the table by not sticking to my original plan.

Pretty nice win there though, Shark. I, for one, will take it haha.

Thank you sir!
 
Pretty nice win there though, Shark. I, for one, will take it haha.

Thank you sir!

I suppose, T. I invested $70 towards the race and got back $135, so I'll take it too because it's better than yesterday when I got nothing. My original thoughts was to play various $5 exactas with the #3 and #11 on top over the next four horses on the numbers, and that exacta paid out at 75/1 in the end. Plus, I've always thought the #10 would be my focus as far as straight bets goes because of the value he offered. Oh well.
 
I suppose, T. I invested $70 towards the race and got back $135, so I'll take it too because it's better than yesterday when I got nothing. My original thoughts was to play various $5 exactas with the #3 and #11 on top over the next four horses on the numbers, and that exacta paid out at 75/1 in the end. Plus, I've always thought the #10 would be my focus as far as straight bets goes because of the value he offered. Oh well.

Yeah, I saw that bud. It kind of seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don’t thing with these long shots that have been just missing for various reasons this year. It says a lot about your capping that you’re able to come close so often though.
 
I missed it live because my site said it wasn't taking place til an hour later. But Dream Baby Dream really did have a nice run in that race at a big price. Started his closing kick way early, but was still able to sustain it a long way to finish way ahead of the 3rd place horse. Makes me feel better when a longshot you land on runs like that..

 
I'll take 6/1 on the #1 Celestrial Image here in race 4 at Mahoning Valley if they're offering it. This will be the 4th or 5th time I've put money on him and he's never ran a bad race for me yet.
 
The numbers for the G1 Florida Derby taking place on Saturday;


==========

#1 Strike Power (4/1) - 526.2
#6 Catholic Boy (7/2) - 514.3
#8 Audible (9/5) - 509.7
#4 Promises Fulfilled (3/1) - 501.4
#9 Mississippi (12/1) - 492.6
#3 Tip Sheet (30/1) - 480.0
#7 Hofburg (20/1) - 476.1
#5 Storm Runner (20/1) - 468.1
#2 Millionaire Runner (50/1) - 426.4

==========


My initial thoughts are to play some exactas ($5 each) and trifectas ($1 each) like so;

1,6 over 1,6,8,9 over 1,6,8,4,9,3,7

...And by "initial thoughts" I'm meaning final thoughts because I've learned my lesson after these two preps this last weekend. I believe that should be $60 in total invested (plus I'll play one of the top 2 in straight bets), so hopefully one or two prices hit the board and make it worthwhile.
 
Anybody betting on the Dubai world cup saturday? Serious race card
 
The numbers for the most interesting races on tomorrow's Gulfstream card;

==========

Race 8 (G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap);

#4 Irish War Cry (2/1) - 537.3
#5 Tommy Macho (7/2) - 531.9
#1 Conquest Big E (10/1) - 519.5
#2 Always Dreaming (9/5) - 512.9
#6 Page McKenney (8/1) - 502.0
#3 Mr. Jordan (8/1) - 496.8

==========

Race 10;

#9 Outplay (3/1) - 502.3
#1 Sweetontheladies (15/1) - 500.5
#3 Weekend Hideaway (5/2) - 499.2
#7 Ready for Rye (9/2) - 497.9
#2 Richard the Great (12/1) - 490.9
#8 Realm (6/1) - 482.0
#10 Rock and Fellers (20/1) - 477.9
#4 Impressive Edge (10/1) - 477.4
#5 Always a Suspect (20/1) - 471.0
#6 Fayeq (12/1) - 455.3
#11 Cherry Wine (15/1) - 428.9

==========

Race 11 (G3 Honey Fox Stakes);

#10 On Leave (3/1) - 527.5
#3 Stormy Victoria (4/1) - 526.6
#2 Lull (5/2) - 515.7
#4 Team of Teams (8/1) - 512.4
#5 Conquest Hardcandy (20/1) - 494.7
#1 Glory to Kitten (10/1) - 491.0
#7 Island Reward (15/1) - 484.4
#6 Grizzel (10/1) - 479.8
#8 Res Ipsa (12/1) - 475.6
#9 Liberty Kitten (20/1) - 475.4

==========

Race 12 (G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks);

#3 Take Charge Paula (4/1) - 516.9
#4 Cache (8/1) - 513.2
#7 Heavenhasnynikki (12/1) - 497.5
#9 Princess Warrior (5/1) - 495.1
#5 Daisy (9/2) - 487.9
#2 Coach Rocks (8/1) - 486.1
#13 Alter Moon (30/1) - 485.8
#10 Tell Your Mama (30/1) - 478.3
#12 Mihrab (15/1) - 476.3
#11 Silver Bay (20/1) - 472.9
#6 Blonde Bomber (6/1) - 471.2
#8 C. S. Incharge (6/1) - 466.6
#1 Eight Thirtyone (30/1) - 456.8

==========

Race 13 (G2 Pan American Stakes);

#8 Sadler's Joy (2/1) - 558.9
#7 Bigger Picture (6/1) - 541.4
#3 Hi Happy (3/1) - 534.7
#1 Markitoff (15/1) - 521.7
#2 Bullards Alley (7/2) - 519.7
#5 Little Nick V (20/1) - 489.9
#9 One Go All Go (8/1) - 488.4
#4 Classic Covey (20/1) - 486.2
#6 Tiz a Slam (20/1) - 484.5

==========

Race 14 (G1 Florida Derby);

#1 Strike Power (4/1) - 526.2
#6 Catholic Boy (7/2) - 514.3
#8 Audible (9/5) - 509.7
#4 Promises Fulfilled (3/1) - 501.4
#9 Mississippi (12/1) - 492.6
#3 Tip Sheet (30/1) - 480.0
#7 Hofburg (20/1) - 476.1
#5 Storm Runner (20/1) - 468.1
#2 Millionaire Runner (50/1) - 426.4

==========
 
Gonna go big tomorrow with tons of plays;


Race 8 - Two of my favourite bet against horses are in this race (Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, even Mr Jordan now that he's on my shit list...quitters all), so I'll probably play the #5 Tommy Macho (7/2) to win and place for $5/$10 at his morning line odds

Race 10 - #1 Sweetontheladies (15/1) to win and place for $5/$10

Race 11 - #3 Stormy Victoria (4/1) to win and place for $5/$10, plus some $2 exactas with 10,3 over 10,3,2,4

Race 12 - #4 Cache (8/1) to win and place for $5/$10, plus some $2 exactas with 3,4 over 3,4,7,9

Race 13 - #7 Bigger Picture (6/1) to win and place for $5/$10, plus a $1 super with the #8 Sadler's Joy keyed on top of the next four horses on the number

Race 14 - #1 Strike Power (4/1) to win and place for $5/$10, plus the exacta and trifecta structures I mentioned before (1,6 over 1,6,8,9 over 1,6,8,4,9,3,7)


I'm also going to play all the multi-race wagers that are available as well on the late portion of the card, and using 15 points from the top number as the cut off;


$1 Pick 3 (races 10-12); 9,1,3,7,2 with 10,3,2 with 3,4 ($30)

$0.50 Pick 5 (races 10-14); 9,1,3,7,2 with 10,3,2 with 3,4 with 8 with 1,6 ($30)

$1 Pick 3 (races 11-13); 10,3,2 with 3,4 with 8 ($6)

$1 Pick 4 (races 11-14); 10,3,2 with 3,4 with 8 with 1,6 ($12)

$1 Pick 3 (races 12-14); 3,4 with 8 with 1,6 ($4)


I think that's $280 in total that will be risked for me. Most since Breeders Cup.

I'm also going to make a small Rainbow 6 ticket since people are predicting that as much as $20 million will be in the pool, but I still have to decide how to play race 9 which is a maiden race that I can't do numbers for. Have to try for it, though, just because the potential payoffs could be monstrous.
 
Mendelssohn crushed his way to the Derby. Mind Your Biscuits overcomes an extreme inside speed bias in Dubai to take there big sprint race. And West Coast, at odds-on, lost the World Cup to Thunder Snow.
 
6/5 currently on Always Dreaming, who hasn't raced since the Travers last year and has shit the bed in every race he's had since the Derby. He is trained by Pletcher, though, at his "hear no evil" track.
 
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