Kentucky Derby...and Beyond? | Page 111

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.

  1. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Looking through the PP's for the races coming up at Aqueduct & Churchill for Wednesday and I can only find three E2 horses for the day and they're all running at Churchill;

    The #4 Brilliant Kitten in race 3
    The #8 Queenofthepalace in race 6
    The #1 Ambidextrous Alex in race 10
     
    #2201
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  2. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Some interesting data I just compiled to get me ready for the Aqueduct dirt races on Wednesday and maybe for the whole weekend;

    - last week (Wed-Sun) there were 6 wire-to-wire winners out of the 15 dirt races I looked at at the track
    - last week 12 of those 15 dirt races were won by a horse that was either on the lead in the early running or sitting just off it within a length or two at most
    - so far this Aqueduct meet there have been 16 wire-to-wire winners out of the 39 races on dirt so far
    - 28 out of those 39 winners were horses that were sitting on the lead or sitting just off it within a length or two
    - 20 of the 39 races so far on the dirt were won by a horse with a Brisnet running style of E going into the race
    - 29 of 39 winners so far on the dirt were won by a horse with a Brisnet running style of either E or E/P going into the race

    So yeah. This will probably make things easier if the track plays the same this week since I'll be able to downgrade about half the field since their chances will be reduced due to the way the track has been favouring early speed types so far this meet.
     
    #2202
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  3. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Here's some expanded data by looking at the charts for the dirt races last week at Aqueduct instead of just watching what I could find. Because the races were taken off the turff and ran on dirt on Wednesday, there ended up being 28 dirt races that were ran over the track last week from Wed-Sun;

    - 12 of 28 were won in wire-to-wire fashion
    - 20 of 28 were won by a horse sitting in either 1st or 2nd in the early running
    - 24 of 28 were won by a horse sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the early running
    - 15 of 28 exactas were made up of horses who were both sitting in a top 3 position in the early running
    - 8 of 28 trifectas were made up of horses who were all sitting in a top 3 position in the early running
    - 14 of 28 trifectas were made up of horses who were all sitting in a top 4 position in the early running
     
    #2203
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  4. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    My losers that I'll be playing today (pre scratches);


    Aqueduct;

    Race 2 - #4 Sand City to win for $15
    Race 5 - #6 Too Fast to Pass to win for $10
    Race 6 - #2 Dark Ops to win for $15
    Race 7 - #2 Forge to win for $10
    Race 8 - #2 Peter's Project to win for $10


    Churchill (E2 angle horses);

    Race 3 - #4 Brilliant Kitten to place for $15
    Race 6 - #8 Queenofhtepalace to place for $15
    Race 10 - #1 Ambidextrous Alex to show for $10
     
    #2204
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  5. gcoogan1 White Belt

    gcoogan1
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    sorry not been following the thread since breeders cup day, whats an e2 horse?
     
    #2205

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