Kentucky Derby...and Beyond? | Page 111

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.

  1. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Looking through the PP's for the races coming up at Aqueduct & Churchill for Wednesday and I can only find three E2 horses for the day and they're all running at Churchill;

    The #4 Brilliant Kitten in race 3
    The #8 Queenofthepalace in race 6
    The #1 Ambidextrous Alex in race 10
     
    #2201
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  2. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Some interesting data I just compiled to get me ready for the Aqueduct dirt races on Wednesday and maybe for the whole weekend;

    - last week (Wed-Sun) there were 6 wire-to-wire winners out of the 15 dirt races I looked at at the track
    - last week 12 of those 15 dirt races were won by a horse that was either on the lead in the early running or sitting just off it within a length or two at most
    - so far this Aqueduct meet there have been 16 wire-to-wire winners out of the 39 races on dirt so far
    - 28 out of those 39 winners were horses that were sitting on the lead or sitting just off it within a length or two
    - 20 of the 39 races so far on the dirt were won by a horse with a Brisnet running style of E going into the race
    - 29 of 39 winners so far on the dirt were won by a horse with a Brisnet running style of either E or E/P going into the race

    So yeah. This will probably make things easier if the track plays the same this week since I'll be able to downgrade about half the field since their chances will be reduced due to the way the track has been favouring early speed types so far this meet.
     
    #2202
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  3. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Here's some expanded data by looking at the charts for the dirt races last week at Aqueduct instead of just watching what I could find. Because the races were taken off the turff and ran on dirt on Wednesday, there ended up being 28 dirt races that were ran over the track last week from Wed-Sun;

    - 12 of 28 were won in wire-to-wire fashion
    - 20 of 28 were won by a horse sitting in either 1st or 2nd in the early running
    - 24 of 28 were won by a horse sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the early running
    - 15 of 28 exactas were made up of horses who were both sitting in a top 3 position in the early running
    - 8 of 28 trifectas were made up of horses who were all sitting in a top 3 position in the early running
    - 14 of 28 trifectas were made up of horses who were all sitting in a top 4 position in the early running
     
    #2203
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  4. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    My losers that I'll be playing today (pre scratches);


    Aqueduct;

    Race 2 - #4 Sand City to win for $15
    Race 5 - #6 Too Fast to Pass to win for $10
    Race 6 - #2 Dark Ops to win for $15
    Race 7 - #2 Forge to win for $10
    Race 8 - #2 Peter's Project to win for $10


    Churchill (E2 angle horses);

    Race 3 - #4 Brilliant Kitten to place for $15
    Race 6 - #8 Queenofhtepalace to place for $15
    Race 10 - #1 Ambidextrous Alex to show for $10
     
    #2204
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  5. gcoogan1 White Belt

    gcoogan1
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    sorry not been following the thread since breeders cup day, whats an e2 horse?
     
    #2205
  6. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    $5 to place on all these guys today (pre-scratches);

    Mahoning Valley Race 2 - #2 Tales of War
    Tampa Bay Race 4 - #5 Jockey Jills Dream
    Mahoning Valley Race 4 - #3 Best of You
    Aqueduct Race 5 - #2 Bluegrass Prevails
    Aqueduct Race 6 - #7 Lucky Town
    Mahoning Valley Race 7 - #5 Hondo Gusto and #4 Designer Win
    Mahoning Valley Race 8 - #10 Ranhandle Justice
    Gulfstream Race 10 - #11 White Mo
    Delta Downs Race 1 - #1 Artillero
    Turfway Park Race 2 - #1 Blazing Saint
    Turfway Park Race 3 - #5 Secret Trick
    Delta Downs Race 4 - #11 Starook (AE)
    Delta Downs Race 5 - #7 Clever Racer
    Penn National Race 8 - #3 Tiger's Cave
    Turfway Park Race 7 - #9 Stefan O'Eishen
    Turfway Park Race 8 - #1 Summer Sable

    All horses who fit the E2 angle in today's races, which is, for the most part, the only thing I've been playing over the last month regardless of where the horse runs. Some of these E2 types have been going off and hitting at huge prices lately, including a 96/1 shot finishing 2nd by a nose at Woodbine on Sunday and paying 35/1 to place. And then yesterday at Mahoning Valley when a E2 type won their 2nd race at 45/1 and paid 20/1 to place.
     
    #2206
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  7. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Only a few plays for me today and these are all going to be $5 to win and $10 to place;

    Fair Grounds Race 2 - #5 Ruby Dusk
    Turfway Park Race 1 - #4 Skiffs Brewmeister
    Delta Downs Race 5 - #1 Smok'n Rita


    Unlike all those plays I posted a couple of days ago which were basically just playing elevated E2 horses regardless of where it happened in their form cycle, running style, etc., the above 3 are strict to my E2 angle. Meaning that those 3 horses are horses who typically run from behind the pace, featured a significant increase in their E2 pace rating last time out (and still had some run left at end), and that increase to their E2 figure came early in their current form cycle (1st or 2nd race off a layoff). Yesterday those horses that fit the strict E2 angle were crushing it. There were 6 of them in total and they produced a 2-2-1 record out of those 6 starters with the two winners both paying out at 11/1 (which I missed out on having only place bet them all). So I`m going to try them again today. And going forward as well as it`s the about only handicapping angle that hasn`t let me down and has shown itself to be consistently reliable enough over the years.
     
    #2207
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  8. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    A fair amount of horses running today that are strict to the E2 angle and these are my pre-scratch plans how to play them ;

    Aqueduct Race 2 - #1 Our Whim ($5 to win, $10 to place)
    Aqueduct Race 5 - #4 Bluegrass Prevails ($5 to win, $10 to place)
    Fair Grounds Race 4 - #8 Valadorna ($10 to win), #6 Majestic Angel ($10 to place), and then a straight exacta between the two with the #8 on top ($5)
    Gulfstream Race 9 - #7 Fear the Cowboy ($10 to win, $15 to place) ***
    Fair Grounds Race 6 - #8 Saham ($5 to win, $10 to place)
    Los Alamitos Race 8 - #2 Rick's Dream ($5 to win, $10 to place)
    Fair Grounds Race 10 - #1 Fear the Cowboy ($10 to win, $15 to place) ***
    Remington Race 1 - #7 Imalittlehazy ($10 to place)
    Remington Race 8 - #10 Patriotic American ($5 to win, $10 to place)

    *** This guy obviously can't run in both of those races he's cross entered in. But I'll be betting him regardless of which one, as he fits quite nicely in either even without the E2 angle.
     
    #2208
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  9. BluntTrauma21 Young Martha

    BluntTrauma21
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    Thanks Shark, appreciate it as always. GL today bud.
     
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  10. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    My first E2 horse of the day finishes 2nd (of course he/she did) for a decent 5/2 payout on the place bet. I'll take it.
     
    #2210
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  11. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Did you get in on that first one, bud?
     
    #2211
  12. BluntTrauma21 Young Martha

    BluntTrauma21
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    No I literally placed the bet then it cancelled last second, missed by a few secs. That's my luck, lol. E2 horse and place should be synonyms, they're always cashing that these last couple weeks.
     
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  13. Soccer Steve Orange Belt

    Soccer Steve
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    Tailed you today - dipping my toe for the first time to learn a thing or two (going to the track has always been a complete unknown for me) - and we cash on the first race/bet.

    This is how it is all the time, yes? ;-)
     
    #2213
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  14. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Shitty luck there, Blunt. But we'll try to get you a few today if you're playing along.

    That's a 2nd place finish for 5 of the last 8 E2 horses I've bet. Yep. Business as usual with them.
     
    #2214
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  15. BluntTrauma21 Young Martha

    BluntTrauma21
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    In on bluegrass prevails, nice 15/1 possible payout on that. Probably gonna miss most of these races but will try to get some cash in on as many as possible to tail before I gotta go. GL boys.
     
    #2215
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  16. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Haha. Umm, well. Let's just say that it wouldn't be shocking at all if that's the only bet we cash today, Steve. Nice job hitting your first one, though.
     
    #2216
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  17. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    Ahhh, if I had the time to watch these today I'd tail you for sure, Shark. Best of luck, though. Hope it's a winning day for you guys.
     
    #2217
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  18. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Cheers T.
     
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  19. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Bluegrass vs Bluegrass and Bluegrass prevails at an okay 6/1.
     
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  20. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    As long as I don't do anything stupid and start betting races other than the ones I plan to with these E2 horses then I'm guaranteed at least a small profit on the day and there's still 7 more races to go.
     
    #2220
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