Just watched 32 random fights of elite grapplers and here are my conclusions.

[chubbman]

Conor has a punchers chance.

His stand-up is miles ahead of Khabibs.

From clinch range and beyond, Khabib rag-dolls him to Blovian.

there it is

 

[tkotom]

Somebody bookmark this thread and bump it after Conor knocks Khabib stiff.

 

[basedgodfedor]

Conor have a chance..but I've never seen khabib fall from a punch.
The same argument can be made before the Jose Aldo/Conor fight though but Khabib has that immigrant gangster mentality, I don't think he wants to strike with Conor so..I'm going to lean heavily with Khabib on this one.

If khabib tries one of his lunging hooks though...

 

[Sjb1888]

Conor has a punchers chance.

His stand-up is miles ahead of Khabibs.

From clinch range and beyond, Khabib rag-dolls him to Blovian.

I think saying Conor has a punchers chance is a very simplistic way to describe what Conor will be looking to do against khabib.

When I hear about someone having a punchers chance, i'm thinking of a guy like Leben in his fight vs Anderson or Rogers vs Fedor.

That's not what this fight is, Conor doesn't have to put Khabib out with one shot to win the fight, he has an elite strikers chance, and that's not the same as a punchers chance for me.

 

[daniel san]

So a wrestler/grappler usually loses when they fight against a superior wrestler/grappler or when they can't take their opponent down? Who would have known.

 

[Mob69]

Favour Khabib is Conor is lethal and Nurmy does get hit. Pick ‘em fight.

 

[Ruthfella]

Could you tell me the fight when elite wrestler/grappler lost to striker with weak tdd and grappling?

 

[Mau]

I know this points are facts.

They're still opinions.

 

[migeru29]

They're still opinions.

Then do you own analysis and refute mine with evidence so you can prove this are just opinions. Is that simple.

 

[CharliePotatoes]

Conor has a punchers chance.

His stand-up is miles ahead of Khabibs.

From clinch range and beyond, Khabib rag-dolls him to Blovian.

Think you mean oblivion

 

[The Merchant]

I'll just watch the fight and see what actually happens. There is not enough relevant data for me to decide what is going to happen. Conor is 2 years away from his last fight. I have no idea of his current capabilities.

If forced to pick a winner I would say khabib however Conor winning wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[Clocop]

I want coner to win and i do think he has the tools necessary except for one fatal flaw of his:
His gas tank is shit.

And if he didn't build up the proper cardio for his boxing affair i don't think he will now.
He fell for the mewvement meme instead of doing proven-since-antiquity cardio methods

 

[Gilday]

Based on your own observations TS, Conor will win using either method 2, 3, or 4.

Since when does Conor have excellent takedown defence? The only wrestler he fought is Mendes on 2 weeks and he was taking him down pretty often
The only reason Conor got up in that 2nd round is because Mendes went for a guillotine choke instead of maintaining his position

 

[SeattleFightFan]

when Mendes stood up, he backed up and gave Conor room to destroy him. he was gassed. and destroy him he did.

Khabib has never shown inclination to give someone room, any time during the fight. and he's never gassed.

Conor could win via #4 (ala Oliviera v LaFlare) or "#5 wrestler does something stupid/reckless and striker capitalizes" (ala Silva v Sonnen (II) or Mike Brown v Faber (I)).

or #6 "Chuck v Sobral style"

PS hey @migeru29 , was Oliviera v LaFlare one of the 32 fights you watched?

 

[moreorless87]

And no I'm not kidding. I was about to write this in detail but I'm to lazy to do that, overall here are the conclusions when elite grapplers/wrestlers usually lose:

1. Against another elite grappler/wrestler (maia vs shields, maia vs colby, penn vs gsp, etc)
2. Stupid enough to try his striking against a very good or elite striker opponent (from the very beginning).
3. A very good/elite striker (or just a better striker) with excellent TD defense. Stuff lots of TD attempts until the grappler/wrestler gets tired and then the striker finish him or totally dominate him.
4. The elite grappler/wrestler is successful with multiple TDs but doesn't inflict much damage to his opponent and eventually gets tired. The striker then takes advantage and finish him or dominate him.

And the unusual way of an elite grappler/wrestler losing is via getting caught when attempting the takedown (e.g. silva vs newton).

I'm not asking for your approval, this are conclusions from observation so I know this points are facts. What I want to know is from those who think that Conor will win. I want them to answer how they think Conor will win (using objective thinking) as I did.

One thing that does stand out I'd say is that you don't see that many fights were a grappler is looking for the takedown but gets caught early, Nate/Maia comes to mind but generally in MMA early KO's tend to happen when both guys are looking to strike as we saw with Aldo/McG.

 

[Mau]

Then do you own analysis and refute mine with evidence so you can prove this are just opinions. Is that simple.

Stay dumb then.

It's "Into oblivion" not "to Bolivian"

 

[Arm Barbarian]

It's "Into oblivion" not "to Bolivian"

Think you mean oblivion

Old fight meme guys

 

[UFC178]

Old fight meme guys

Okay, makes sense.

 

[revoltub]

What fights were they

 

[Myrddin Wild]

From a strictly scientific standpoint... It's my prognosis that TS is overlooking the fact that Khabib haz all ready dieded by shookness

@Brother Soul On Ice please release the carefully aquired evidence of our scientific findings for these fine folks regarding Khabib's shookness level.