Is MMA the hardest sport to bet?

[Verace]

In general you can tell who is going to win in other sports because most of the time bad teams or players compete against each other. You can also tell how they should be doing by analysing their latest performances.

However, in MMA, the fights are usually put together to match the point both fighters are in their careers, so their latest performaces should be somewhat equal. And you never see top ranked guys fighting people down the ranks like it happens in others.

Put that together with the fact that pretty much any fight can end/change with one punch the risk goes way up.

Then you have the judging and the reffing which is inconsistent as fuck.

I dont have much experience in sports betting so i may be talking out of my ass, but curious to know what you all think

 

[UFCBlackbelt]

Nah, football can be up there too.

The thing about betting is that over/unders (favorites/underdogs) exist which will always balance out risk/reward no matter what. So the more mainstream the sport the more educated the betters, therefore the harder the bets.

I've made quite a bit of money in MMA actually by knowing stylistic matchups and removing the hype from decisionmaking

 

[Son of Sonnen]

I don’t gamble, but the shear volume of choices I would think makes it easier to win outside of MMA.

 

[loisestrad]

In general you can tell who is going to win in other sports because most of the time bad teams or players compete against each other.

What does that mean?

And yeah, obviously a sport in which you can end the fight with a lucky punch is gonna be somewhat harder to predict. You can't end a tennis game with a perfect shot.

 

[DC23]

I find with gambling that if you put the hours in and you have the knowledge, you can do well with any sport. I got myself through University with good monthly profit because I had the time and energy to study Football. Now however, with me working full time and being an actual adult, I gamble for fun and usually find myself losing.

I won alot last year with MMA but this year not so much - why? Because I guess I haven't watched as much and haven't had as much interest / knowledge.

 

[RustyShacleford]

Well in other sports there is typically a spread to cover which means you can't just safely bet on the better team. Also the oddsmakers seem to be more knowledgable.

In MMA it's not too hard to find some likely underdogs. Like I remember Nunes and Cody opening as a 2:1 dogs against Rousey and Cruz at ufc 207, so that was easy money for anyone in the know.

 

[Verace]

What does that mean?

Im not sure what you are asking me to explain here.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

Well in other sports there is typically a spread to cover which means you can't just safely bet on the better team. Also the oddsmakers seem to be more knowledgable.

In MMA it's not too hard to find some likely underdogs. Like I remember Nunes and Cody opening as a 2:1 dogs against Rousey and Cruz at ufc 207, so that was easy money for anyone in the know.

Yeah I find sometimes the odds makers are just way off in mma, like Tyron and geathje were both underdogs in their most recent fights

 

[xMaxPower]

its the easiest because of the concept "styles makes fights" and the fact that its 1v1. if you are aware of the patterns, youll be good at betting.

all the other sports are mostly just random. there are too many players, too many variables, and so many things can go wrong. instead what they do is, they go by stats to determine who is most likely to win.

boxing is 1v1 but its only punches. its harder to see the patterns when its only punches.

 

[bad seed]

In general you can tell who is going to win in other sports because most of the time bad teams or players compete against each other. You can also tell how they should be doing by analysing their latest performances.

However, in MMA, the fights are usually put together to match the point both fighters are in their careers, so their latest performaces should be somewhat equal. And you never see top ranked guys fighting people down the ranks like it happens in others.

Put that together with the fact that pretty much any fight can end/change with one punch the risk goes way up.

Then you have the judging and the reffing which is inconsistent as fuck.

I dont have much experience in sports betting so i may be talking out of my ass, but curious to know what you all think

 

[Deleted member 429453]

I stopped MMA betting the day I bet on overreem to ko Bigfoot

 

[loisestrad]

Im not sure what you are asking me to explain here.

I'm asking you to explain what I quoted, that's why I quoted it. I didn't get it, and I still don't.

 

[SeattleFightFan]

In general you can tell who is going to win in other sports because most of the time bad teams or players compete against each other. You can also tell how they should be doing by analysing their latest performances.

However, in MMA, the fights are usually put together to match the point both fighters are in their careers, so their latest performaces should be somewhat equal. And you never see top ranked guys fighting people down the ranks like it happens in others.

Put that together with the fact that pretty much any fight can end/change with one punch the risk goes way up.

Then you have the judging and the reffing which is inconsistent as fuck.

I dont have much experience in sports betting so i may be talking out of my ass, but curious to know what you all think

you will enjoy this piece

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ier-for-more-people-to-place-bad-sports-bets/

in a nutshell, most people are awful gamblers, but think they're pretty good.

But since 1992, bettors have done much better against the house in baseball than in football, basketball or the other remaining sports.

Those thinking they’ll outsmart bookies by betting more obscure sports appear to be sadly mistaken; casinos are keeping nearly twice as much of the money bet on “other” sports as good old-fashioned baseball.​

 

[SeattleFightFan]

I'm asking you to explain what I quoted, that's why I quoted it. I didn't get it, and I still don't.

oh you "get" what he said. you just know that what he said is ludicrous though apparently he does not know that.

 

[MacDuffle]

MMA is the easiest sport to profit from honestly

The fact that the sport is so new leads to some awful opening lines that can be taken advantage of by smart bettors

Also, the average football/basketball fan is more educated about their sport than MMA fans are about theirs, so it further leads to lines being pushed in favorable directions for good gamblers.

The numbers game also doesn't work out as well for MMA bets if fighter-gameplans shelve aspects of a fighter that were credited for wins past. You bet on a fighter with a world-beater pedigree in wrestling and a flawless TD percentage and they could easily wind up with stand and bang

 

[Verace]

I'm asking you to explain what I quoted, that's why I quoted it. I didn't get it, and I still don't.

It cant be any more straight forward.

Take the world cup this year for example, brazil had to play serbia, england played panama, france played peru, portugal played morroco, etc...

The same thing happens with every other league around the world. Even with individual sports.

Im not saying you should bet the favorite all the time, if thats what you think i mean. But the underdogs chances are very slim in these.

oh you "get" what he said. you just know that what he said is ludicrous though apparently he does not know that.

No i dont. I made my knowledge on betting very clear in the OP. But now its your turn to explain why.

 

[RHSairic2k5]

are you implying woodley is an easier fight than ferguson or kevin lee?

MMA is the easiest sport to profit from honestly

The fact that the sport is so new leads to some awful opening lines that can be taken advantage of by smart bettors

Also, the average football/basketball fan is more educated about their sport than MMA fans are about theirs, so it further leads to lines being pushed in favorable directions for good gamblers.

Pretty much agree. Being a world-class sports bettor means winning like 57% of the time (read The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver).

Vegas is too good at football basketball baseball, etc. MMA seems to open a few more doors for favorable betting. Still hard as hell though.

 

[EndlessCritic]

You can make good money betting on MMA, but you need to bet as soon as the lines are released. Invariably, the bookies get the lines wrong when they get released. By the time the fight starts, the line is usually pretty sharp, and it's hard to make money.

 

[SeattleFightFan]

MMA is the easiest sport to profit from honestly

The fact that the sport is so new leads to some awful opening lines that can be taken advantage of by smart bettors

Also, the average football/basketball fan is more educated about their sport than MMA fans are about theirs, so it further leads to lines being pushed in favorable directions for good gamblers.

you should also read the article i posted.

you think like most investors; "smart" investors can beat the market. the problems is, most investors think a) "they" are smart, b) "everyone else" is dumb, and c) most of them do worse than mutual funds.

yes, you can always point to a very small # of folks consistently beat the house. the huge majority don't over time.

this isn't an opinion. i posted an article that has the numbers and did the statistical analysis. though it's not exactly apples to apples what we're talking about, it's close enough. i hope you read it.

 

[Mortigan]

Baseball is really hard.

Even just picking winners and losers is hard, no team in the NL has a winning percentage over 600.

 

[pookiyama]

Id say its by far the easiest to bet successfully, just be smarter than your average fan.