Is it possible to make a living from betting?

[MrSkin]

hey all,

I have been lurking this forum for a while; I take pleasure in reading how you guys break down and analyse fights and individual fighters and make logical bets based off this. I also admire how a lot of you seem to make money a lot of the time.

I have been a hardcore MMA fan for over a decade and I love reading the betting and analysis side of things.

Well I try to dabble a bit myself and I seem to come up short, using only small amounts of money. I am starting to think a lot of it is maybe luck or is there just something I am not getting yet?

Let me show you my betting on the last UFC card as an example. any feedback appreciated.




thanks

 

[Sadistics]

Watching tape is the key, followed by proper betting theory.

Some comments on your bets:

Marquardt KO +550 - decent value bet knowing Mutante's chin issues, but don't expect to win em all.

Pettis/Poirier ends in RD4, 5, or dec - 1.67 equals about -180? Fight ends ITD was around -215, not a big price difference for a much safer bet. Grats on the win though

Pettis - A lot of people bet Pettis based on name value, but if you watch the tape you see Poirier presents all the problems Poirier struggles with (pressure, pocket boxing, sub defense, cardio, heart)

Lauzon/Guida GTD - Tough loss, no one expected it to end like that. In this matchup I'd say Guida dec at around +175 is a better bet than GTD at nearly -200 due to Lauzons lack of cardio and Guidas wrestling and endless gastank.

Brown/Sanchez GTD - Sanchez had been KOed his last 2 fights before this I believe, his chin looked done. The matchup and the fact that he was moving up to WW were also big reasons not to place this bet.

Quinones - I get most people want to fade Sage, but this was a perfect stylistic matchup for him

Marquardt/Ferreira O1.5 - love this bet, only thing you're really worried about is Mutantes chin or Marquardt having severely declined since his last fight and getting KOed himself. O1.5 rather than 2.5 makes a big difference too obviously.

Hope it helps, not trying to hate or be a revisionist, just my thoughts after tape.

 

[MrSkin]

Watching tape is the key, followed by proper betting theory.

Some comments on your bets:

Marquardt KO +550 - decent value bet knowing Mutante's chin issues, but don't expect to win em all.

Pettis/Poirier ends in RD4, 5, or dec - 1.67 equals about -180? Fight ends ITD was around -215, not a big price difference for a much safer bet. Grats on the win though

Pettis - A lot of people bet Pettis based on name value, but if you watch the tape you see Poirier presents all the problems Poirier struggles with (pressure, pocket boxing, sub defense, cardio, heart)

Lauzon/Guida GTD - Tough loss, no one expected it to end like that. In this matchup I'd say Guida dec at around +175 is a better bet than GTD at nearly -200 due to Lauzons lack of cardio and Guidas wrestling and endless gastank.

Brown/Sanchez GTD - Sanchez had been KOed his last 2 fights before this I believe, his chin looked done. The matchup and the fact that he was moving up to WW were also big reasons not to place this bet.

Quinones - I get most people want to fade Sage, but this was a perfect stylistic matchup for him

Marquardt/Ferreira O1.5 - love this bet, only thing you're really worried about is Mutantes chin or Marquardt having severely declined since his last fight and getting KOed himself. O1.5 rather than 2.5 makes a big difference too obviously.

Hope it helps, not trying to hate or be a revisionist, just my thoughts after tape.

thanks sadistics for your honest and detailed feedback

it seems that maybe i need to be more detailed with my betting (for example not just betting on a winner, but also betting on a method of victory and distance).

Also need to go deeper in my analysis.

Thanks again

 

[MarloStanfield]

if you are a casino then yes

 

[NinjaCat456]

What he said ^^

And how was Poirier/Pettis RD4, 5 or decision graded a win? I saw a RD3 finish there.

*Edit: Was referring to sadistics' post btw, not the casino comment.

 

[Gugabe]

thanks sadistics for your honest and detailed feedback

it seems that maybe i need to be more detailed with my betting (for example not just betting on a winner, but also betting on a method of victory and distance).

Also need to go deeper in my analysis.

Thanks again

Natural hedges also occur fairly frequently in MMA. Stuff like Arlovski ML/Albini KO1 or u1.5 appeared last week, which I lent on a bit despite not putting it on my tipping sites. Sometimes it's just a matter of eliminating the outlandish outcomes, and sometimes you hit on both your hedge and 'bet'. I hedged TJ ML @ 2.6 with u4.5 @ 2.03 since I felt that Cody wouldn't win a decision, as TJ's head'd come off if Cody was landing consistently enough to not get out-volume'd.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

A living? Almost impossible.
You can certainly make a nice little supplementary income though.

 

[Rapidryan88]

If you have the bankroll to bet relatively large and you’re fairly selective with your bets it’s possible.

Edit: stay disciplined and find what works for you buddy. And if your method loses don’t instantly think of changing due to 1 or 2 bad cards. It’s sll about the long term! Good luck!

 

[Gugabe]

If you have the bankroll to bet relatively large and you’re fairly selective with your bets it’s possible.

And pick a country with a decent associated cost of living. It's the same as financial trading, really. Find a niche, have a solid bankroll and try to aim for a workable ROI.

 

[Rapidryan88]

And pick a country with a decent associated cost of living. It's the same as financial trading, really. Find a niche, have a solid bankroll and try to aim for a workable ROI.

100%^ agree

 

[MrSkin]

Natural hedges also occur fairly frequently in MMA. Stuff like Arlovski ML/Albini KO1 or u1.5 appeared last week, which I lent on a bit despite not putting it on my tipping sites. Sometimes it's just a matter of eliminating the outlandish outcomes, and sometimes you hit on both your hedge and 'bet'. I hedged TJ ML @ 2.6 with u4.5 @ 2.03 since I felt that Cody wouldn't win a decision, as TJ's head'd come off if Cody was landing consistently enough to not get out-volume'd.

thanks buddy. always gonna hedge my bets

 

[MrSkin]

A living? Almost impossible.
You can certainly make a nice little supplementary income though.

thats what i want bro

If you have the bankroll to bet relatively large and you’re fairly selective with your bets it’s possible.

Edit: stay disciplined and find what works for you buddy. And if your method loses don’t instantly think of changing due to 1 or 2 bad cards. It’s sll about the long term! Good luck!

iill keep that in mind man. I track everything i bet and hope to at least break even

 

[Rapidryan88]

thats what i want bro



iill keep that in mind man. I track everything i bet and hope to at least break even

Good lad keep a track of everything

 

[trident]

Im the worst bettor here, imo, just an impulsive greedy dumb ass.

I get wrapped up in parlays and props and always lose money

When I do have a positive night, it's because I limited my bets, and stuck to just a few picks, stayed away from most props except o/u and distance.

MMA is full of whammies. Just watch Luca complain all the time that fights don't go the way they are supposed to. They don't.

But that's the point.

You have to watch tape and lay down on a few bets per card you have great reason to bet.

 

[Gugabe]

Im the worst bettor here, imo, just an impulsive greedy dumb ass.

I get wrapped up in parlays and props and always lose money

When I do have a positive night, it's because I limited my bets, and stuck to just a few picks, stayed away from most props except o/u and distance.

MMA is full of whammies. Just watch Luca complain all the time that fights don't go the way they are supposed to. They don't.

But that's the point.

You have to watch tape and lay down on a few bets per card you have great reason to bet.

I'd kind of suggest the opposite. I like to have atleast 5 plays on the average card, as I think that UFC odds-setting is sufficiently sloppy as to allow consistent value to be found with research. I find that just trying to W/L on the strength of 2-3 gimmes puts you in the position to get kicked in the dick hard, whilst you're better diversifying.

I know guys who make livings in betting NFL, AFL and NRL down here in Australia. Not many, but it can be done. Just gotta supplement with selling tips and other services, along with picking a good community to do it in.

 

[BatBoyJG]

This comes up all the time.

I’d just suggest learning to walk before you run. Basically get into the black first before you think about making a living on it lol. I am a successful bettor, and know I have a talent for it, but it is a build up. Even if it’s not a living, setting a goal of 10u a month & hitting it consistently is a good goal I feel & gives an attainable goal that isn’t insignificant in its potential effect.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Im the worst bettor here, imo, just an impulsive greedy dumb ass.

I get wrapped up in parlays and props and always lose money

When I do have a positive night, it's because I limited my bets, and stuck to just a few picks, stayed away from most props except o/u and distance.

MMA is full of whammies. Just watch Luca complain all the time that fights don't go the way they are supposed to. They don't.

But that's the point.

You have to watch tape and lay down on a few bets per card you have great reason to bet.

Even have my vocabulary whammies

Seriously u and me bud 2018 the comeback. No more parlay Junkie action.

 

[EzFlyer]

I might have missed it, but limits and bookies declining your action become a serious issue.

I don't really think it's a viable living for anyone. Not with just Mma, anyway.

 

[rille31]

The last 2 years where pretty good to me and I could easily support myself trough betting during that time, today Im limited on several books and Im happy if I can make a couple of extra units per month

 

[esum80]

i would personally consider betting more of a side thing to contribute to a regular income stream, not a FT thing.