Is it possible to make a living from betting?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by MrSkin, Nov 13, 2017.

  1. MrSkin Orange Belt

    MrSkin
    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2012
    Messages:
    317
    Likes Received:
    142
    hey all,

    I have been lurking this forum for a while; I take pleasure in reading how you guys break down and analyse fights and individual fighters and make logical bets based off this. I also admire how a lot of you seem to make money a lot of the time.

    I have been a hardcore MMA fan for over a decade and I love reading the betting and analysis side of things.

    Well I try to dabble a bit myself and I seem to come up short, using only small amounts of money. I am starting to think a lot of it is maybe luck or is there just something I am not getting yet?

    Let me show you my betting on the last UFC card as an example. any feedback appreciated.

    upload_2017-11-13_18-48-10.png


    thanks
     
    #1
  2. Sadistics Blue Belt

    Sadistics
    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Messages:
    914
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Watching tape is the key, followed by proper betting theory.

    Some comments on your bets:

    Marquardt KO +550 - decent value bet knowing Mutante's chin issues, but don't expect to win em all.

    Pettis/Poirier ends in RD4, 5, or dec - 1.67 equals about -180? Fight ends ITD was around -215, not a big price difference for a much safer bet. Grats on the win though

    Pettis - A lot of people bet Pettis based on name value, but if you watch the tape you see Poirier presents all the problems Poirier struggles with (pressure, pocket boxing, sub defense, cardio, heart)

    Lauzon/Guida GTD - Tough loss, no one expected it to end like that. In this matchup I'd say Guida dec at around +175 is a better bet than GTD at nearly -200 due to Lauzons lack of cardio and Guidas wrestling and endless gastank.

    Brown/Sanchez GTD - Sanchez had been KOed his last 2 fights before this I believe, his chin looked done. The matchup and the fact that he was moving up to WW were also big reasons not to place this bet.

    Quinones - I get most people want to fade Sage, but this was a perfect stylistic matchup for him

    Marquardt/Ferreira O1.5 - love this bet, only thing you're really worried about is Mutantes chin or Marquardt having severely declined since his last fight and getting KOed himself. O1.5 rather than 2.5 makes a big difference too obviously.

    Hope it helps, not trying to hate or be a revisionist, just my thoughts after tape.
     
    #2
    trident likes this.
  3. MrSkin Orange Belt

    MrSkin
    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2012
    Messages:
    317
    Likes Received:
    142

    thanks sadistics for your honest and detailed feedback

    it seems that maybe i need to be more detailed with my betting (for example not just betting on a winner, but also betting on a method of victory and distance).

    Also need to go deeper in my analysis.

    Thanks again
     
    #3
    Silent Liker likes this.
  4. MarloStanfield The Wild Colonial Boy

    MarloStanfield
    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2010
    Messages:
    13,426
    Likes Received:
    9,413
    Location:
    K-hole
    if you are a casino then yes
     
    #4
    1122, ChoKuRei, goldennirvana and 3 others like this.
  5. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    931
    Likes Received:
    698
    What he said ^^

    And how was Poirier/Pettis RD4, 5 or decision graded a win? I saw a RD3 finish there.

    *Edit: Was referring to sadistics' post btw, not the casino comment.
     
    #5
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2017
    goldennirvana and MrSkin like this.
  6. Gugabe Yellow Belt

    Gugabe
    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    236
    Natural hedges also occur fairly frequently in MMA. Stuff like Arlovski ML/Albini KO1 or u1.5 appeared last week, which I lent on a bit despite not putting it on my tipping sites. Sometimes it's just a matter of eliminating the outlandish outcomes, and sometimes you hit on both your hedge and 'bet'. I hedged TJ ML @ 2.6 with u4.5 @ 2.03 since I felt that Cody wouldn't win a decision, as TJ's head'd come off if Cody was landing consistently enough to not get out-volume'd.
     
    #6
  7. stretcharmstrong Blue Belt

    stretcharmstrong
    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2017
    Messages:
    730
    Likes Received:
    383
    A living? Almost impossible.
    You can certainly make a nice little supplementary income though.
     
    #7
    1122 and Silent Liker like this.
  8. Rapidryan88 Blue Belt

    Rapidryan88
    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2016
    Messages:
    690
    Likes Received:
    209
    If you have the bankroll to bet relatively large and you’re fairly selective with your bets it’s possible.

    Edit: stay disciplined and find what works for you buddy. And if your method loses don’t instantly think of changing due to 1 or 2 bad cards. It’s sll about the long term! Good luck!
     
    #8
    Silent Liker likes this.
  9. Gugabe Yellow Belt

    Gugabe
    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    236
    And pick a country with a decent associated cost of living. It's the same as financial trading, really. Find a niche, have a solid bankroll and try to aim for a workable ROI.
     
    #9
    conmemay, bunt, BatBoyJG and 2 others like this.
  10. Rapidryan88 Blue Belt

    Rapidryan88
    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2016
    Messages:
    690
    Likes Received:
    209
    100%^ agree
     
    #10
  11. MrSkin Orange Belt

    MrSkin
    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2012
    Messages:
    317
    Likes Received:
    142
    thanks buddy. always gonna hedge my bets
     
    #11
  12. MrSkin Orange Belt

    MrSkin
    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2012
    Messages:
    317
    Likes Received:
    142
    thats what i want bro

    iill keep that in mind man. I track everything i bet and hope to at least break even
     
    #12
    Rapidryan88 likes this.
  13. Rapidryan88 Blue Belt

    Rapidryan88
    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2016
    Messages:
    690
    Likes Received:
    209
    Good lad keep a track of everything
     
    #13
  14. trident Water Belt

    trident
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    8,709
    Likes Received:
    8,871
    Location:
    beneath a hovering whining mosquito
    Im the worst bettor here, imo, just an impulsive greedy dumb ass.

    I get wrapped up in parlays and props and always lose money

    When I do have a positive night, it's because I limited my bets, and stuck to just a few picks, stayed away from most props except o/u and distance.

    MMA is full of whammies. Just watch Luca complain all the time that fights don't go the way they are supposed to. They don't.

    But that's the point.

    You have to watch tape and lay down on a few bets per card you have great reason to bet.
     
    #14
  15. Gugabe Yellow Belt

    Gugabe
    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    236
    I'd kind of suggest the opposite. I like to have atleast 5 plays on the average card, as I think that UFC odds-setting is sufficiently sloppy as to allow consistent value to be found with research. I find that just trying to W/L on the strength of 2-3 gimmes puts you in the position to get kicked in the dick hard, whilst you're better diversifying.

    I know guys who make livings in betting NFL, AFL and NRL down here in Australia. Not many, but it can be done. Just gotta supplement with selling tips and other services, along with picking a good community to do it in.
     
    #15
    trident likes this.
  16. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    BatBoyJG
    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2010
    Messages:
    3,064
    Likes Received:
    841
    Location:
    Bronx, NY
    This comes up all the time.

    I’d just suggest learning to walk before you run. Basically get into the black first before you think about making a living on it lol. I am a successful bettor, and know I have a talent for it, but it is a build up. Even if it’s not a living, setting a goal of 10u a month & hitting it consistently is a good goal I feel & gives an attainable goal that isn’t insignificant in its potential effect.
     
    #16
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2017
    EzFlyer likes this.
  17. Kowboy Karl Brown Belt

    Kowboy Karl
    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2013
    Messages:
    4,130
    Likes Received:
    2,011

    Even have my vocabulary whammies

    Seriously u and me bud 2018 the comeback. No more parlay Junkie action.
     
    #17
    trident likes this.
  18. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    36,576
    Likes Received:
    15,389
    Location:
    philly
    I might have missed it, but limits and bookies declining your action become a serious issue.

    I don't really think it's a viable living for anyone. Not with just Mma, anyway.
     
    #18
    Kowboy Karl likes this.
  19. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,328
    Likes Received:
    1,486
    Location:
    sweden
    The last 2 years where pretty good to me and I could easily support myself trough betting during that time, today Im limited on several books and Im happy if I can make a couple of extra units per month
     
    #19
    BatBoyJG likes this.
  20. esum80 MAU-RRRICI-O...SHO-GUNN!!!

    esum80
    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    4,203
    Likes Received:
    1,628
    Location:
    鴨川ボクシングジム
    i would personally consider betting more of a side thing to contribute to a regular income stream, not a FT thing.
     
    #20
    Bless, Rapidryan88 and BatBoyJG like this.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "fd5733925866a04e50edd70f38dfaa35"
monitoring_string = "603ac9fff68f23709f2a42bf5e29272b"