It's not like people can bet any significant amounts on euro books for an extended duration. I was limited to cents on every single somewhat reputable bookie by the time my unit size was ~100$.
Invicta FC 28 Mizuki vs Jandiroba
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I like Mizuki here especially if it goes into the championship rounds, her cardio never seems to fail.
I saw Kali as high as 3.00 on one site and should have made a bet but now the value is on Pearl. She has better striking but not as much power, I think she can stay long with her jab and keep Kali on her back foot.
Also Christina Marks isn't the best ground fighter and Milana can definitely win this one but the line is off and I'm considering a small play on Marks @2.95. Again she's the longer fighter and just has to keep the fight standing to win.
I saw Kali as high as 3.00 on one site and should have made a bet but now the value is on Pearl. She has better striking but not as much power, I think she can stay long with her jab and keep Kali on her back foot.
Also Christina Marks isn't the best ground fighter and Milana can definitely win this one but the line is off and I'm considering a small play on Marks @2.95. Again she's the longer fighter and just has to keep the fight standing to win.
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I'm really disappointed by the odds on Rodriguez/Bennett. I was looking forward to getting Rodriguez something like 2.25 - 2.50 (CBA looking at Unibet with a probable £13.46 limit or something) for a nice dog bet. Bennett hasn't had a good performance in 4+ years (& I've bet on her enough times to remember that...), looking passive, showing no fight, relying on wall n' stall, and I thought there is a decent chance Rodriguez drops spicy japalenos over Bennett's sour cream taco bringing a level of latina heat she just can't handle. But a 1.40 favorite?? That's total bullshit 
Worth remembering Bennett has wins over current Invicta champ Maia, former champ Kankaanpää (both wins were robberies but w/e), UFC contender Julianna Pena, plus several other name wins. She's been on a downward spiral, fights like she's disinterested and maybe heading to retirement, but just missing out on the UFC could also have relit a fire, who knows. Rodriguez has fought noone and beat noone. I can't take her at those odds! Pass
Speaking of downward spirals, I think Dudieva is easy money vs Marks. Dudieva lost her last 4 fights, 3 by stoppage (!) but it's worth noting they were all against solid UFC tier competition; she generally looked OK in the first round but had no gas for the rest of the fight (2 of them were 3rd round stoppage losses). In her last bout she beat down and almost finished Porto, who is as tough a vet as they come, in the 1st before the inevitable gassed-out blowback loss in rds 2 and 3. Marks has a losing record, is bum tier competition, and only got this fight as a late replacement to pad out the card. I think Dudieva will finish her in 1 but even if not, Marks isn't good enough to take advantage of her fading gas tank. 1.50 (and rising!) is great value IMO. 3-4u on Dudieva... (2u would be a more sensible amount)
Mizuki/Virna: I like Mizuki but it's worth remembering she was training for a 3 rounder before being bumped up to the main, and is coming off 1yr + layoff from major knee surgery. While Mizuki is good everywhere that could be a bad thing as I don't trust her not to grapple, and Virna has highly touted grappling credentials and shown obvious skill in that arena in her MMA bouts. I wouldn't be surprised to see her win by sub at all.
Alternatively, a smart fighting Mizuki would beat up Virna on the feet and try and take her out there as the fight goes on; she's always shown great cardio before (would have easily beat Kowalkiewicz and Grasso in 5 rounders) but I have some doubts about Mizuki's level of preparation here. I really don't know how this fight will go - books got it right opening it as even. I might put 0.5-1u on Virna if she reaches 2.50, otherwise nothing
Robbins/Gonzales: Gonzales didn't really show any skills at all in her UFC run. I don't know exactly how good Robbins is, but I'm happy to chance 1u as the underdog (though she's a clear fav now most places?) as she seems to have reasonable subs/striking/and is aggressive and I slightly favour her to win.
Worth remembering Bennett has wins over current Invicta champ Maia, former champ Kankaanpää (both wins were robberies but w/e), UFC contender Julianna Pena, plus several other name wins. She's been on a downward spiral, fights like she's disinterested and maybe heading to retirement, but just missing out on the UFC could also have relit a fire, who knows. Rodriguez has fought noone and beat noone. I can't take her at those odds! Pass Speaking of downward spirals, I think Dudieva is easy money vs Marks. Dudieva lost her last 4 fights, 3 by stoppage (!) but it's worth noting they were all against solid UFC tier competition; she generally looked OK in the first round but had no gas for the rest of the fight (2 of them were 3rd round stoppage losses). In her last bout she beat down and almost finished Porto, who is as tough a vet as they come, in the 1st before the inevitable gassed-out blowback loss in rds 2 and 3. Marks has a losing record, is bum tier competition, and only got this fight as a late replacement to pad out the card. I think Dudieva will finish her in 1 but even if not, Marks isn't good enough to take advantage of her fading gas tank. 1.50 (and rising!) is great value IMO. 3-4u on Dudieva... (2u would be a more sensible amount)
Mizuki/Virna: I like Mizuki but it's worth remembering she was training for a 3 rounder before being bumped up to the main, and is coming off 1yr + layoff from major knee surgery. While Mizuki is good everywhere that could be a bad thing as I don't trust her not to grapple, and Virna has highly touted grappling credentials and shown obvious skill in that arena in her MMA bouts. I wouldn't be surprised to see her win by sub at all.
Alternatively, a smart fighting Mizuki would beat up Virna on the feet and try and take her out there as the fight goes on; she's always shown great cardio before (would have easily beat Kowalkiewicz and Grasso in 5 rounders) but I have some doubts about Mizuki's level of preparation here. I really don't know how this fight will go - books got it right opening it as even. I might put 0.5-1u on Virna if she reaches 2.50, otherwise nothing
Robbins/Gonzales: Gonzales didn't really show any skills at all in her UFC run. I don't know exactly how good Robbins is, but I'm happy to chance 1u as the underdog (though she's a clear fav now most places?) as she seems to have reasonable subs/striking/and is aggressive and I slightly favour her to win.
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Agree with you on Rodriguez though I expected her to be a favorite. -200 and above is too much for me so I had to pass.
Agree on Mizuki and Jan D Roba too. Mizuki is scrappy but not physical like Jan appears to be. Also Mizuki was nearly tapped by Lacey Schuckman (actually Schuckman claims Mizuki did tap and it looks like she might've had a point). Jan has great takedowns that are well timed and hard to defend, so she doesn't have to settle for getting outstruck on the feet for long. Jan's gas tank is untested but she's at least had time to prepare for a 5 rder.
Agree with Kali as well and would've taken her at slight dog odds. Passed on -125 because she's also fought nobody and hasn't really been deep in a fight. For all of Pearl's faults, she at least knows how to survive sub attempts. She got caught in like 10 attempts before finally finishing Casey in the 3rd round.
I do disagree with Dudieva being easy money, especially at -200 odds. Marks has a distinct advantage on the feet, and her striking looks vastly improved since just 2 years ago. She's clearly fast and athletic. Obviously the girl needs to learn how to defend an armbar, but Dudieva hasn't submitted anyone in 4 years, and that was against a 0-0 fighter. Dudieva has only showed good top control in one round in the past few years against Porto, and this position was only achieved by the most blatant two handed fence grab I've ever seen. Marks has an avenue to win if she can keep it standing. If she can survive the 1st, her chances improve by a lot. At close to +200 she might be worth a shot. Curious how the clinches will go here. Marks has a lovely muay thai clinch game where she throws hard knees and also off balances her opponent too. Dudieva ducks her head down and looks to lock up her opponent's hips (belt wrestling position, I guess?). More than likely Dudieva gets control of Marks' hips but she may eat a knee or two for her trouble.
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888sport copied the Unibet lines but sadly I only had about 1u in there. Hoping a certain line improves so I can add, and there's a couple props I'm eyeing, not sure we get them though.
Jandiroba +125 .3u
Rodriguez -115 .5u
Dudieva -185 .5u
Robbins +200 .2u
Jandiroba +125 .3u
Rodriguez -115 .5u
Dudieva -185 .5u
Robbins +200 .2u
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Wow you got great deals on these lines. Robbins at +200 is awesome lol. I got her at +105 and I'm happy.
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Yeah just wish I could've hit them harder!
Unibet/888/32Red/Leovegas are clones of eachother, they always have the same lines
Invicta FC 28: Mizuki vs. Jandiroba Weigh-in Results
- Mizuki Inoue (113.9) vs. Virna Jandiroba (115)
- DeAnna Bennett (127.9)* vs. Karina Rodriguez (125.2)
- Milana Dudieva (125.9) vs. Christina Marks (124.8)
- Kali Robbins (115.4) vs. Pearl Gonzalez (115.9)
- Minna Grusander (105.8) vs. Fernanda Priscila (105.9)
- Kal Schwartz (115.6) vs. Kay Hansen (115.3)
- Kerri Kenneson (135.7) vs. Chelsea Chandler (135.7)
- Jillian DeCoursey (106) vs. Rebekah LeVine (104.9)
- Tracy Cortez (124.7) vs. Kaytlin Neil (125.5)
Notable takeaway from the Invicta FC 28 weigh-ins: Despite their heights being listed on Sherdog at 5' 4" and 5' 2" respectively for Mizuki Inoue and Virna Jandiroba, Virna actually is at least as tall or taller and bigger physically than Mizuki when they faced off in bare feet just now. Making me re-think my Mizuki wagers even more than I already was for crying out loud.
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Yeah Mizuki might get out muscled by Jan. I'm letting it ride though. I don't think Miz will make it easy for Jan. Still got +105 on Robbins that'll help cover that for a small loss. BOL gents
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Bought out of my mizuki bet now that the lines are back to evens at -115. I'm scared of Jan lol. Still a good fight though I find myself looking forward to it.
Invicta FC 28 Risk $852.00
Mizuki Inoue (-105) vs Virna Jandiroba ~$135.00 for~ $128.57
Mizuki Inoue (-120) vs Virna Jandiroba $120.00 for $100.00
Karina Rodriguez (-210) vs DeAnna Bennett $210.00 for $100.00
Kali Robbins (+105) vs Pearl Gonzalez $100.00 for $105.00
Kali Robbins (+105) vs Pearl Gonzalez $100.00 for $105.00
Kalyn Schwartz (+147) vs Kay Hansen ~$81.00 for ~$119.07
Parlay:
Karina Rodriguez (-245) vs DeAnna Bennett + Milana Dudieva (-260) vs Christina Marks $106.00 for $100.68
Mizuki Inoue (-105) vs Virna Jandiroba ~$135.00 for~ $128.57
Mizuki Inoue (-120) vs Virna Jandiroba $120.00 for $100.00
Karina Rodriguez (-210) vs DeAnna Bennett $210.00 for $100.00
Kali Robbins (+105) vs Pearl Gonzalez $100.00 for $105.00
Kali Robbins (+105) vs Pearl Gonzalez $100.00 for $105.00
Kalyn Schwartz (+147) vs Kay Hansen ~$81.00 for ~$119.07
Parlay:
Karina Rodriguez (-245) vs DeAnna Bennett + Milana Dudieva (-260) vs Christina Marks $106.00 for $100.68
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