Invicta 22 - Evinger vs Kunitskaya II - Kansas City

Jinh Yu Frey's bout is off after her opponent missed weight:

 
Xuh said:
I was going to dump a bunch of cash on Jinh Yu despite the very disappointing odds (I was hoping the books would buy into dat Brazilian can crushing record - less than a year ago Garbrandt was 2.80 vs Almeida, any chance we could get it half as good for a rematch? :D ) but her opponent has missed weight by a huge amount. Not sure if the fight will go ahead or if I like that bet as much if it does.

Main card (UFC Fight Pass at 8 p.m. ET)
Tonya Evinger (134.8) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (134.8)
Ayaka Hamasaki (115.7) vs. Livia Renata Souza (115)
DeAnna Bennett (117.6 *missed weight) vs. Jodie Esquibel (115.5)
Jiny Yu Frey (106) vs. Janaisa Morandin (111.2 *missed weight)
Amber Brown (105.9) vs. Ashley Cummins (105.6)
Sunna Davidsdottir (115.8) vs. Mallory Martin (114.8)
Kal Holliday Schwartz (115.9) vs. Miranda Maverick (120.5 * missed weight)
Felicia Spencer (146.0) vs. Madison McElhaney (146.0)

So that leaves Hamasaki as the only other bet I want to make.
I made a lot of money betting on Hamasaki on her last 3 fights but was not sure about going for it this time. But I'm surprised she's the underdog. I guess dem Azn fighters still don't get no bookie/punter (...judging, matchmaking, UFC...) love.
The reason I'm a bit doubtful is - she's been pretty reckless in her latest fights (rather than 'poor iq' I think she's trying to be 'exciting' in the hopes the UFC will sign her), in particular almost getting triangled by Brown - Souza won the Invicta title with a triangle - and almost getting finished by a body kick + guillotine to Tiburcio (plus seeming susceptible to body kicks in general) - Souza defended her title with a body kick KO vs Bennett.

Still I decided to bet on her anyway (just not big), listening to the mma vivisection guys - though I dunno about their fight analysis sometimes, they pointed out - she's 14-1 with wins over lots of 'name' opponents and that doesn't happen by chance. Most of her fights have been at 115 anyway, Souza is a small 115er, and Hamasaki's only loss was to Gadelha who is huge and was on more roids than an entire Mr Olympia line-up, plus Hama had a bum knee needing surgery and wanted to pull out of the fight. When you think of it like that, backing someone with that pedigree at plus odds is a no brainer for me. I don't really rate Souza much and Hamasaki is top 10 p4p women, maybe top 5. 3u Hamasaki.


Brown/Cummins is pass from me, Brown price way too high

Bennett/Esquibel I like the price for Bennett but she fucked me twice already and I don't want her to fuck me again (sorry Deanna, it's not you, it's me). Plus now she's missed weight. On the flip side, a good price for Bennett means a shit price for Esquibel, who is a 105er fighting a natural 125er. Pass!

I might have parlayed Evinger with Jinh Yu small (as well as a big bet on Jinh straight). Realistically I think she's going to fist this Russian blonde harder than a Russian fisting website in revenge for the last bout (and that's a pretty damn hard fisting). However I just don't trust her that much for those kinda odds, she's show flaky sub defence several times before. Also Kunitskaya trained for 4+ weeks at Jackson/Wink this time apparently for what that's worth. & now the Jinh fight might be off, pass again......
Click to expand...

I dont think brown triangled her twice cos ham was trying to be exciting. She was sitting in guard not doing much. From the fights ive watched her natural instinct is to go for the sakuraba standing kimura if someone has the body lock from behind standing. She has made lots of mistakes in her last 3 fights and is very fortunate to have won all three and i wouldnt put it down to her trying to be exciting.
 
Holy shit line movement

Evinger -175
Hamasaki +171
Edquibel +145

I'm adding adding those 3
 
MMA Goodfella said:
Who is the consensus bet on here?
Click to expand...
Hamasaki as a significant dog seems like the best value bet of the night to me. I'm also on Esquibel as a small dog after Bennett missed weight and Kunitskaya as a pretty sizable dog at the time I bet it.
 
Invicta 22 Risk: 582.50
Evinger -183: 182.50 for 100 - 100 parlays
Hamasaki +147: 150 for 220.50
Frey: 100 parlays
Esquibel +133: 100 for 132.50
Brown: 100 parlays
parlays
50 for 38.53 evinger -335 & frey -275
50 for 36.93 evinger -335 & brown -295
50 for 41.29 frey -275 & brown -295
---

the RR was done early and horrendous prices and forced bet.

lol @ me.

risking 5+ units is prolly a mistake here. won't be able to watch till sunday. GL =P
 
Got 2.5u on Hamasaki +128 which I thought was an ok price, then I check in here and see some of you getting her at +170..
 
Evinger with that never tap shirt on, 7 out of 8 losses by sub

Tonya-Evinger-vs-Yana-Kunitskaya-weigh-2-440x250.jpg
 
Unibet have removed all lines? Or am I just blind?
 
rille31 said:
Evinger with that never tap shirt on, 7 out of 8 losses by sub

Tonya-Evinger-vs-Yana-Kunitskaya-weigh-2-440x250.jpg
Click to expand...

Yea but I really don't think she gets caught like that again. Kunitskaya surprised her, there was no evidence that she had that off of her back. Think evinger roughs her up for a few rounds here.
 
Tailing you boys on Hamasaki +160. You are all way more into this stuff to watch some of these women's fights I fuckin love it!
 
My random prediction: Kunitskaya will beat Evinger again, which will piss Evinger off and make her want to go to the UFC (even though she hates the UFC and said she'd rather stay in Invicta) to claim some scalps. Evinger will then go on to lose in her UFC debut and we'll get amazing odds on her opponent.
 
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