Invicta 22 - Evinger vs Kunitskaya II - Kansas City

[EzFlyer]

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/invicta-fc-22-betting-odds/

Invicta FC 22: Evinger vs. Kunitskaya II
MARCH 25, 2017
Scottish Rite Temple | Kansas City, Missouri
Broadcast: UFC Fight Pass at 08:00 PM ET

Bantamweight Title:

Yana Kunitskaya +235
Tonya Evinger -315
–

Non-Title Strawweight Bout:

Ayaka Hamasaki +135
Livia Renata Souza -175
–

Jodie Esquibel +145
DeAnna Bennett -185
–

Janaisa Morandin +175
Jinh Yu Frey -245
–

Ashley Cummins +180
Amber Brown -260
–
————–


i gotta watch the morandin tape still, but i'm leaning frey & brown, but not jumping at the -2xx lines...

idk on bennett-esquibel... i had higher opinion of bennett earlier, but she's kinda fallen off the pace... esquibel always comes in shape...

i'm betting hamasaki +135, tho. i don't think souza's gonna be much bigger even tho she's dropping to 105. she was pretty small at 115. hamasaki's hands have actually gotten decent, i was impressed w/that improvement last fight in particular. ground is mostly a wash, both are excellent on the ground. maybe souza has better back mount but hamasaki better overall positioning and has shown really diverse subs. i'd prolly take either girl at +135, so hamasaki it is for me

i don't know on evinger-kunitskaya. i think kunit surprised evinger more than anything last time.. don't think evinger makes the same mistake again. but no bet for now.

 

[Sham5916910]

Ham Souza is at 115

 

[null]

Sham is right, Hamasaki moved up to strawweight for this bout. Not sure if that changes your analysis, EZ.

 

[Sham5916910]

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/invicta-fc-22-betting-odds/

Invicta FC 22: Evinger vs. Kunitskaya II
MARCH 25, 2017
Scottish Rite Temple | Kansas City, Missouri
Broadcast: UFC Fight Pass at 08:00 PM ET

Bantamweight Title:

Yana Kunitskaya +235
Tonya Evinger -315
–

Non-Title Strawweight Bout:

Ayaka Hamasaki +135
Livia Renata Souza -175
–

Jodie Esquibel +145
DeAnna Bennett -185
–

Janaisa Morandin +175
Jinh Yu Frey -245
–

Ashley Cummins +180
Amber Brown -260
–
————–


i gotta watch the morandin tape still, but i'm leaning frey & brown, but not jumping at the -2xx lines...

idk on bennett-esquibel... i had higher opinion of bennett earlier, but she's kinda fallen off the pace... esquibel always comes in shape...

i'm betting hamasaki +135, tho. i don't think souza's gonna be much bigger even tho she's dropping to 105. she was pretty small at 115. hamasaki's hands have actually gotten decent, i was impressed w/that improvement last fight in particular. ground is mostly a wash, both are excellent on the ground. maybe souza has better back mount but hamasaki better overall positioning and has shown really diverse subs. i'd prolly take either girl at +135, so hamasaki it is for me

i don't know on evinger-kunitskaya. i think kunit surprised evinger more than anything last time.. don't think evinger makes the same mistake again. but no bet for now.

Disagree ham has better positioning. She is constantly in peril on the mat due to poor fight iq. Against frey she ended up mounted and had her back taken cos she went for a kimura from standing that was never there for example. Amber Brown had two deep triangles locked in too and she was probably saved by the bell in r2. She always drops rounds because of this. Brown was 2-0 up, Frey 1-0 up, 2-2 with Tiburcio going into r5. I agree Ham is the better striker. However, -175 is a pass i wanted Souza at -120 or better. I put £28 (max bet) on Jodie @ +180 on a Euro book would have unloaded if i got that on a book i could go big. +100 is a pass. Infact whole card is a pass for me at current prices.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

frey fight starts at 21mins. more i look into this fight more i like frey. 1.36 now in uk. just added to bet

 

[EzFlyer]

Sham is right, Hamasaki moved up to strawweight for this bout. Not sure if that changes your analysis, EZ.

oh, not really. my point was: i don't think size is gonna be a factor

weird, tho. so it's 3 rounds, not 5? doesn't change much in this one

 

[EzFlyer]

Disagree ham has better positioning. She is constantly in peril on the mat due to poor fight iq. Against frey she ended up mounted and had her back taken cos she went for a kimura from standing that was never there for example. Amber Brown had two deep triangles locked in too and she was probably saved by the bell in r2. She always drops rounds because of this. Brown was 2-0 up, Frey 1-0 up, 2-2 with Tiburcio going into r5. I agree Ham is the better striker. However, -175 is a pass i wanted Souza at -120 or better. I put £28 (max bet) on Jodie @ +180 on a Euro book would have unloaded if i got that on a book i could go big. +100 is a pass. Infact whole card is a pass for me at current prices.

souza is a bottom game / back mount BJJ'er, not a top game player

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

plays locked in
brown 1.4
frey 1.36 main bet
bennett 1.67
hamasaki 2.5
evinger 1.33

brown i only bet as odds are better in uk than the states just to have action. the others i think im on the right side

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

souza takes a lot of risks and gives up position a lot going for low percentage stuff. ineffective in top control too like ez said too. reckon hamasski is the play at 2.5. i pretty sure souza fought at a lower weight too and is also moving up so they should be the same size

 

[Sham5916910]

But souza is effective at sweeping and getting up ham isnt. Ham os not good from top either she either gets triangled or ref stands her up for lack of action. She is dangerous mainly in transition.

 

[Sham5916910]

plays locked in
brown 1.4
frey 1.36 main bet
bennett 1.67
hamasaki 2.5
evinger 1.33

brown i only bet as odds are better in uk than the states just to have action. the others i think im on the right side

You are paying the juice on low level wmma? Very dangerous.

 

[EzFlyer]

But souza is effective at sweeping and getting up ham isnt. Ham os not good from top either she either gets triangled or ref stands her up for lack of action. She is dangerous mainly in transition.

she's good on top, she gets side control a lot..

you often marry yourself to one side or the other.. i think that's a mistake...

i'd take either girl +150

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

You are paying the juice on low level wmma? Very dangerous.

only bet small when there's more juice unless i'm confident. like to have action every fight. got 8 times more on frey than the others. might add a bit more to hamasaki tho

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

she's good on top, she gets side control a lot..

you often marry yourself to one side or the other.. i think that's a mistake...

i'd take either girl +150

hamasaki is 2.5 now at pp. its close but i think thats the right side now. just about

 

[Sham5916910]

she's good on top, she gets side control a lot..

you often marry yourself to one side or the other.. i think that's a mistake...

i'd take either girl +150

Im not on either side id take souza at -120 but i cant bet ham at her price either. I think she drops rounds too easy often needing a finish and souza is prob best grappler shes faced. Standing i favour ham but souza has good tds. Im avoiding!

And marrying one side has done wonders for my br

 

[EzFlyer]

Im not on either side id take souza at -120 but i cant bet ham at her price either. I think she drops rounds too easy often needing a finish and souza is prob best grappler shes faced. Standing i favour ham but souza has good tds. Im avoiding!

And marrying one side has done wonders for my br

i just think you're too scared to lose sometimes. missing some opportunities. but different strokes etc

totally get passing on this one, tho, for selective bettors etc

 

[Sham5916910]

i just think you're too scared to lose sometimes. missing some opportunities. but different strokes etc

totally get passing on this one, tho, for selective bettors etc

Oh yeah id agree with being scared sometimes! But im in this to earn big and have lofty targets for the next three years. IMO you cant build a large br betting every fight or betting every fight just cos you think the lines off. But its all subjective and comes down to your reason for betting in the first place. If it comes down to just making the fights more enjoyable for example then cool i get why people bet every fight. But its not gonna work if you want a big br imo.

 

[EzFlyer]

Oh yeah id agree with being scared sometimes! But im in this to earn big and have lofty targets for the next three years. IMO you cant build a large br betting every fight or betting every fight just cos you think the lines off. But its all subjective and comes down to your reason for betting in the first place. If it comes down to just making the fights more enjoyable for example then cool i get why people bet every fight. But its not gonna work if you want a big br imo.

it's all relative.. limits prohibit a lot

 

[Xuh]

I was going to dump a bunch of cash on Jinh Yu despite the very disappointing odds (I was hoping the books would buy into dat Brazilian can crushing record - less than a year ago Garbrandt was 2.80 vs Almeida, any chance we could get it half as good for a rematch? ) but her opponent has missed weight by a huge amount. Not sure if the fight will go ahead or if I like that bet as much if it does.

Main card (UFC Fight Pass at 8 p.m. ET)
Tonya Evinger (134.8) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (134.8)
Ayaka Hamasaki (115.7) vs. Livia Renata Souza (115)
DeAnna Bennett (117.6 *missed weight) vs. Jodie Esquibel (115.5)
Jiny Yu Frey (106) vs. Janaisa Morandin (111.2 *missed weight)
Amber Brown (105.9) vs. Ashley Cummins (105.6)
Sunna Davidsdottir (115.8) vs. Mallory Martin (114.8)
Kal Holliday Schwartz (115.9) vs. Miranda Maverick (120.5 * missed weight)
Felicia Spencer (146.0) vs. Madison McElhaney (146.0)

So that leaves Hamasaki as the only other bet I want to make.
I made a lot of money betting on Hamasaki on her last 3 fights but was not sure about going for it this time. But I'm surprised she's the underdog. I guess dem Azn fighters still don't get no bookie/punter (...judging, matchmaking, UFC...) love.
The reason I'm a bit doubtful is - she's been pretty reckless in her latest fights (rather than 'poor iq' I think she's trying to be 'exciting' in the hopes the UFC will sign her), in particular almost getting triangled by Brown - Souza won the Invicta title with a triangle - and almost getting finished by a body kick + guillotine to Tiburcio (plus seeming susceptible to body kicks in general) - Souza defended her title with a body kick KO vs Bennett.

Still I decided to bet on her anyway (just not big), listening to the mma vivisection guys - though I dunno about their fight analysis sometimes, they pointed out - she's 14-1 with wins over lots of 'name' opponents and that doesn't happen by chance. Most of her fights have been at 115 anyway, Souza is a small 115er, and Hamasaki's only loss was to Gadelha who is huge and was on more roids than an entire Mr Olympia line-up, plus Hama had a bum knee needing surgery and wanted to pull out of the fight. When you think of it like that, backing someone with that pedigree at plus odds is a no brainer for me. I don't really rate Souza much and Hamasaki is top 10 p4p women, maybe top 5. 3u Hamasaki.


Brown/Cummins is pass from me, Brown price way too high

Bennett/Esquibel I like the price for Bennett but she fucked me twice already and I don't want her to fuck me again (sorry Deanna, it's not you, it's me). Plus now she's missed weight. On the flip side, a good price for Bennett means a shit price for Esquibel, who is a 105er fighting a natural 125er. Pass!

I might have parlayed Evinger with Jinh Yu small (as well as a big bet on Jinh straight). Realistically I think she's going to fist this Russian blonde harder than a Russian fisting website in revenge for the last bout (and that's a pretty damn hard fisting). However I just don't trust her that much for those kinda odds, she's show flaky sub defence several times before. Also Kunitskaya trained for 4+ weeks at Jackson/Wink this time apparently for what that's worth. & now the Jinh fight might be off, pass again......

 

[EzFlyer]

^^ so morandin and bennett both missed weight

i'm taking esquibel 0.5u +120 (to go along with 1u hamasaki +135)

looking at parlaying the 3 other faves, tho, it's fairly boring / square, and prolly not advisable. but yea, i'm looking at a 3-teamer (or 3 2-teamers) of evinger, frey, brown -- this is prolly a forced bet, mind you, hehe