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You are right. He underestimated Bisping. However, the punch that KO'd Rockhold was seen in the tape by Bisping and his trainers, and they rehearsed for it. So, that opening was always there. Bisping didn't even set it up, he just knew it was going to be there.he fought that fight cocky as fuck after dominating him the first time. He had his hands down at his waist practically. If they rematch Luke would still likely be a -250 favourite.
Plus, when you add the Vitor KO, and I don't think it fair to claim that Rockhold's striking is far superior to Mousasi.