I Will Predict Every Big Fight This Year

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by A.S. Deep, Jan 22, 2018.

  1. A.S. Deep

    A.S. Deep Brown Belt

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    Something I started with this thread but want to expand on: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/who-wins-these-6-fights.3686085/

    I am going to predict the results of all the big fights/ hypothetical fights this year and bump every time one of these fights happen. My goal is to be 80% correct. I'm gonna copy and paste some of my predictions from the thread linked above. Note: I'm not going to predict them all now. I'll add to this as the year progresses.
    *** Let me know if you have a fight you want predicted!

    Current percentage correct: 73.33%

    Tl;dr:
    UFC 220:
    Stipe/Ngannou
    DC/Volkan


    UFC 221:
    Romero/Rockhold-Romero
    Hunt/Blaydes-Blaydes
    Tuivasa/ Asker- Tuivasa
    Adesanya/Wilkinson-Adesanya


    UFC 222:

    Cyborg/Invicta Can- Cyborg
    Edgar/Ortega- Edgar

    UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vokov:
    Werdum/Volkov- Werdum


    UFC 223:
    Khabib/Raging Al- Khabib
    Thug Rose/JJ 2-Thug Rose
    Zabit/Bochniak- Zabit


    UFC on Fox: Gaethje vs. Poirier:
    Gaethje/Poirier- Gaethje

    UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee:
    Barboza/Lee- Barboza

    Edgar/Cub II- Edgar

    Bellator 198: Fedor vs. Mir
    Fedor/Mir- Mir

    UFC 226:
    Stipe/DC-Stipe
    TJ/DJ-TBA
    Cyborg/Nunes-TBA

    Hypotheticals:
    Whittaker/Rockhold-Whittaker
    McGregor/Khabib-Khabib
    McGregor/Ferguson-Ferguson
    Stipe/Cain-Stipe
    Stipe/Werdum 2-Stipe
    Stipe/Blaydes-Stipe
    Rory/Lima 2-Rory
    Ferguson/Khabib- Ferguson

    UFC 220:
    1. Stipe/ Ngannou
    *** Got it right, bitches!


    Stipe is the better wrestler, has enough power to KO anyone, has a relentless forward march, and is strong as fuck. That said, Ngannou is bigger, has MUCH more power probably, and is probably stronger. I'd say Stipe easy IF he didn't get hit so much (Reem, JDS 1). I'm still with Stipe, though, due to his domination of Reem, JDS, and Werdum.
    My Pick: Stipe

    2. DC/ Oezdemir
    *** Got it right too!


    DC has every advantage except power. That said, we don't know how his chin is after the Jones head kick, and Oezdemir has a legendary chin according to Rumble. Pretty easy pick for DC, but anything can happen in the first minute.
    My pick: DC


    UFC 221
    1. Romero/Rockhold
    ***Rockold's shitty boxing defense leads to him getting KOed. Not surprised.


    Romero is the better wrestler, and though his cardio is lacking, he is unpredicatable, explosive, and enough power to KO Rockhold in a flash. He can win if he keeps it standing. The problem: He lets people take him down all the time because he knows he can pop right back up. He WON'T be able to get up from Rockhold. Rockhold has the best top game in MMA right now. This all depends on how smart Romero fights. If Romero keeps it standing and focuses on exposing Rockhold's chin again, this fight is his.
    My pick: Romero

    2. Hunt/Blaydes
    *** Was rooting for Hunt the whole time. Ugh, if only Hunt had gotten the KO in R1.


    This a gimme fight for Blaydes, which is why the UFC made it. Hunt still has poor TDD and Blaydes is an explosive, big and athletic wrestler who will get Hunt down more often than not. Blaydes also has a chin (wasn't KOed by Ngannou) and is getting better on the feet. He'll probably win a boring UD since he doesn't have Stipe or Cain-style GnP.
    My pick: Blaydes

    3. Tuivasa/Asker

    Not really a big fight, but Tuivasa is 24 years old and HW needs all the prospects it can get. This one is more of a guess, since it is HW after all. Tuivasa is athletic, young, strong as hell, has power, can flying knee opponents at 265+ pounds, and is Hunt's sparring partner so I'm going to assume he has a chin. Looking forward to another R1 KO.
    My pick: Tuivasa

    4. Adesanya/Wilkinson

    Not a huge fight, but Adesanya is an interesting prospect with some hype. Not much to go on other than Adesanya's undefeated record of T/KOs. I believe in his ability to keep it standing and get another T/KO against the no name.
    My pick: Adesanya


    UFC 222
    1. Cyborg/Invicta Can


    Listen, Kunitskaya is probably an awesome person, but we all know what's going to happen in this fight. There's always a chance Cyborg can lose--Serra beat GSP, after all--but she will be the overwhelming favorite for a reason and it's her fight to lose.
    My pick: Cyborg

    2. Edgar/Ortega

    Props to both these guys for taking this fight. Ortega may not have the best striking, but his submissions and length keep his opponents on edge on the feet and he has quite the chin. Ortega's problem: Edgar has an even crazier chin and he has to wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. Adding to that, Edgar has a relentless pressure when striking to punish Ortega for all 5 rounds and he's too smart and experienced to let Ortega get some crazy standing submission like in the Cub Swanson fight. Ortega can always pull off a hail Mary sub later in the fight, but most likely Edgar takes this via UD.
    My pick: Edgar


    UFC FIght Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
    1. Werdum/Volkov

    Volkov is a game opponent on the group and any man at HW can KO any other man at any time. That said, I have faith in Werdum to fight smart and even take this down to the ground. If it stays on the feet then Volkov has a good chance to win via UD or even a headkick later in the fight (Tybura was landing some ones on Werdum). But since this is a 5 round fight, I have faith in Werdum to take down the Russian giant and sub him. PLEASE fight smart, Werdum haha.
    My pick: Werdum


    UFC 223
    (FOR TRANSPARENCY: I picked my winners before the fights started, but since I got tired of having to write a new analysis every time a fight got cancelled I decided not to put my predictions to writing until after the fights)

    1. Khabib/Raging Al

    I'd chosen Khabib by usual wrestlefuck but was ready for a Raging Al upset considering how crazy the week has been. All I'll say about the fight is this: Khabib looked human. He won 50-44/50-43, but he looked human in there tonight.
    My pick: Khabib

    2. Thug Rose/ JJ 2


    There is a good chance Joanna will outstrike Rose from distance and stop Rose's takedowns. She has the skill to do so, but 2 things make me feel like Rose will win again:
    - Joanna gets dropped too much for my liking, and Rose has already proved her KO power.
    - Joanna's behavior after her defeat makes it seem like she thinks she lost to a bad cut and other outside forces. She may be 100% right, but a lot of times when fighters say that it's not a good sign.
    Joanna could brutalize Rose in a Cain/JDS 2 and 3 style beatdown, but I keep on having a gut feeling that Rose is going to finish Joanna again. As for actual style vs. style anaylsis: Rose dropped Joanna twice, so it wasn't a fluke punch. Rose can strike with Joanna as well as choke her out on the ground.
    My pick: THUG ROSE!!!

    3. Zabit/Bochniak

    Not a big fight in the traditional sense, but Zabit won prospect of the year and every fight with him is a must see.
    My pick: ZM Punk


    UFC on Fox: Gaethje vs. Poirier
    1. Gaethje/Poirier


    Unless Gaethje's chin is gone from Eddie, he should have the chin to withstand Poirier's attacks until he gets a TKO. Poirier is gonna get T/KOed if this is a brawl, and Gaethje is gonna make this a brawl as usual.
    My pick: Gaethje


    UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
    1. Barboza/Lee

    So many unknowns for this fight. How will Lee's failed cut and the death of his coach affect him? Can Barboza stop Lee's takedowns? Will Lee look to pressure and get TDs? How much did Lee's staph affect his cardio against Ferg? If Lee pressures Barboza then he should be able to get him down eventually and sub him. That said, Lee doesn't pressure like Khabib and Barboza has great TDD. Rewatch his fight with Khabib. Barboza was defending takedowns well in R3 after getting brutalized in the first two rounds and Lee is no Khabib. For this reason, I'm thinking Barboza will be able to use his kicks and eventually get a T/KO. True pick-em fight, though, and would not be surprised if Lee changes his gameplan to apply more pressure in the later rounds if he has the cardio.
    My pick: Barboza

    2. Edgar/Cub II

    Another fight with unknowns. Edgar is fighting again in less than 2 months after his first KO loss. On paper he should be able to squash Cub like last time, but who knows where his chin his at. Fighters take breaks after getting KOed for a reason! That said, I have to go with Edgar via wrestlefuck. BUT I wouldn't be surprised at all if Cub got a KO in R1.
    My pick: Edgar


    Bellator 198: Fedor vs. Mir
    1. Fedor/Mir

    Rooting for Fedor, but have to go with Mir. Why? Fedor's only bet is a KO, while Mir can win via KO, sub, or decision. Adding to that, Fedor has never looked great in a cage and Mir seems to be taking this fight seriously. Then again, Mir hasn't fought for a while and looked slow as shit against Hunt, but Fedor isn't going to be fighting USADA Mir.
    My pick: Mir


    UFC 226
    1. Stipe/DC

    DC is a monster wrestler, can strike with the best of them, has a world class clinch, good cardio, and a great chin, but I still have to favor Stipe. Maybe I suck Stipe's dick too much, and like I said before, Stipe's TDD is unknown to me, but I have to favor Stipe on the feet due to his mastery of straight punches. Rewatch the Ngannou fight and look at how Ngannou reacts to Stipe's punches, and these aren't looping, telegraphed hooks. Stipe uses quick, short punches, has WAAAAY underrated power at HW, and DC gets hit a bit too much for my liking. DC is the better wrestler, but it's not like Stipe is ignorant when it comes to wrestling. Wrestling cancels out, leaving Stipe as the better striker, more powerful striker, taller, and bigger man. Will be a HARD fight, though.
    My pick: Stipe

    2. TJ/DJ
    ***Coming soon

    3. Cyborg/Nunes
    ***Coming soon


    Hypotheticals
    1. Whittaker/ Rockhold


    Whittaker has crazy TDD, amazing striking (underrated kicks), and was the first person to make Romero look human. That said, Luke can win if he gets Whittaker down, since I don't see any MW escaping his top control. However, Rockhold's striking defense is iffy, and Branch was hitting him a bunch in the first round. If Whittaker does the same, it's lights out for Luke. Can't bet against Whittaker again.
    My pick: Whittaker

    2. McGregor/ Khabib

    McGregor will probably land a few shots on Khabib in R1, but Khabib is not Eddie Alvarez who looks to brawl. Khabib will grab hold of Conor, take him down, and break him within a round. Sucks too, because I generally root for strikers over wrestlers.
    My pick: Khabib

    3. McGregor/Ferguson

    Easier fight for Conor, I think, but still too much for him. Ferg will push the pace in R1 and get punished for it. If his chin is gone after years of beatings, fight is over for him. BUT, I believe in Ferg's chin, and he'll break Conor like in Conor/ Diaz 1. Round 2 will spell the end for Conor.
    My pick: Ferguson

    4. Stipe/Cain

    Have no clue about Stipe's TDD, BUT Stipe has a shit ton of power and good boxing. He was tagging R1 Ngannou a bunch with straight punches, and Cain has shown weakness to straight punches because he goes straight toward his opponents (look at the Kongo fight for example). Cain has the cardio to wear Stipe out, but Stipe will land a few bombs on Cain before then because he has a relentless forward march of his own (look at Reem and JDS 2 for examples). Stipe via boxing and power.
    My pick: Stipe

    5. Stipe/Werdum 2

    Werdum can do a lot better in a rematch if he goes for a point fighting approach. He's not going to get Stipe to the ground, and he's not going to get a quick KO. He can wear Stipe out using his crazy cardio and win a UD, but I think Stipe will realize this and eventually walk Werdum down into a TKO or another KO. Werdum can win if he stays elusive, though.
    My pick: Stipe

    6. Stipe/Blaydes

    Blaydes is a great fighter and underrated around here. He's big, fast for his size, an explosive wrestler, surprisingly light on his feet, and is getting better fast. He's good everywhere, but not great anywhere. That's why he loses to Stipe, who's the better boxer, MMA wrestler (so far), gameplanner, and the guy with the more power. He doesn't do anything better than Stipe does, and I don't see him outwrestling Stipe for long when he couldn't outwrestle Ngannou for long (versus Stipe, who put on a clinic against Ngannou).
    My pick: Stipe

    7. Rory/Lima 2

    Rory had his hands full with Lima, no doubt. As Askren said, Lima is the hardest kicker in WW right now, and I don't think Rory was expecting that. That said, Rory outwrestled Lima with one leg, even though that could have been the case because Lima thought he was winning the fight. I see Rory gameplanning a bit better next time so as to not get him with leg kicks as much as outwrestling Lima to another UD.

    8. Ferguson/Khabib

    Khabib will definitely get Ferg down. However, Ferg won't care. He'll strike off his back, look to sub, and will gladly take the punishment being the crazy fucker he is. And on the feet he'll break Khabib with relentless pressure, forcing Khabib to go for quick takedowns. Even if he gets brutalized for four rounds, his conditioning will keep him in the fight during round 5.
    My pick: Ferguson
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2018
  2. Squall10

    Squall10 Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card Yellow Card Banned

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    Predict Rory Lima 2. And Paul Daley MVP.
     
  3. The Best JG

    The Best JG Platinum Nation!!

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    Who do you think u are, Mystic @UL or something?
     
  4. Bubzeh

    Bubzeh Pink Belt

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    Ferg to beat Khabib? Sir....

    <mma3>
     
  5. KYS

    KYS Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    You got the obvious ones right.

    That’s something!
     
  6. Gambit MMA

    Gambit MMA Black Belt

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    Think ur wrong on Rockhold and romero
     
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  7. A.S. Deep

    A.S. Deep Brown Belt

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    I can still be wrong 20% of the time ;)
     
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  8. jeff7b9

    jeff7b9 Red Belt

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    I disagree on Tony vs Khabib

    It comes down to the positions they wind up in and I think people aren't really thinking thru how Khabib works on the ground. He is almost always on his feet and doesn't lay on top or rest in guard at all.

    Tony isn't going to have the chance to do damage from the bottom or get a sub. The vast majority of his subs comes from stuffing takedowns or having top position in a scramble to put his d'arce in. Khabib gets his TDs from the clinch so not positioned correctly for "snapdown city"

    Tony is going to get mauled. I'm a big fan, I love to watch him fight so I hope I'm wrong but I sincerely doubt it.

    His wild style standing is going to get him taken down because he is often out of position and occasionally of balance.

    And while his cardio is great, having great cardio while winning and having great cardio with a guy on top kicking your ass can be two different things.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
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  9. A.S. Deep

    A.S. Deep Brown Belt

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    I think Ferg's biggest issue is going to be positioning. Even if Ferg hurts Khabib from the bottom, the judges might still give that moment to Khabib because he was on top. You have a good point. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
     
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  10. UL

    UL no more yellows

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    <LikeReally5>
     
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  11. jeff7b9

    jeff7b9 Red Belt

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    I don't recall anyone winning on the scorecards off their back since Bas vs Randleman.

    I'm sure it happened somewhere but it seems like judges just give the guy on top the round.

    Mousasi absolutely kicked the shit out of King Mo from the bottom, fucked up his face and outstruck him 3-1 as I recall and they scored the fight for Mo.

    Guy on top wins regardless of everything else it seems
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
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  12. A.S. Deep

    A.S. Deep Brown Belt

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    I'll do Rory/Lima 2. Don't know much about Daley and MVP.
     
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  13. Bend NvR Break

    Bend NvR Break Standing still is actually moving back

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    Romero has 2 rounds to finish Rockhold or he's losing.

    Not even 3rd Romero can save him.
     
  14. A.S. Deep

    A.S. Deep Brown Belt

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    I hate it, because that along with 5 minute rounds kills a lot of BJJ in the octagon.
     
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  15. VIPERdude

    VIPERdude Black Belt

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    You have way more time to talk MMA than I do. Im jealous
     
  16. A.S. Deep

    A.S. Deep Brown Belt

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    This actually just took me 10 minutes. Then again I left most of the hard ones for later ;)
     
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  17. JustBleed69

    JustBleed69 Touch-Butt Brown Belt

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    I agree mostly, except Romero cab 100% get up if Rockhold gets him down.
    I fully understand how good Rockholds top game is, but Romeros wrestling is just way to good to be held down by anyone. I don't think even Lesnar or Cain could hold him down.
     
  18. elbowsandwiches

    elbowsandwiches Brown Belt

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    woah ts, you picked DC in that fight? how did you possibly divine that outcome?? you must be a clairvoyant.

    LOL.

    ....everybody knew stipe was gonna wreck ngannu too.
     
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  19. jeff7b9

    jeff7b9 Red Belt

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    10 minute first round is how MMA should be.

    As with most problems with MMA, PrideFC often had the answer.

    Better gloves, knees and kicks on the ground, no steroid testing, tournaments (but still regular champs and title fights)
     
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  20. A.S. Deep

    A.S. Deep Brown Belt

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    Perhaps the first few times Rockhold gets Romero down when Romero is fresh. I hope you're right, but Rockhold just has a vicious top game that he no doubts practices against DC and Cain frequently. I wouldn't be surprised if he could hold down most HWs.
     
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