IMO, McGregor has a chance at the beginning of the first round. If he doesn't land anything significant, he's getting put on his back and the nights over. The difference in his grappling ability and Khabib's is monumental and I don't see him getting up and creating distance. So, either he continuously stays on the ground or continuously fights to his feet and goes for rides over and over again.
The whole, "every round starts on the feet" angle is a false omen. Cause after an entire round of being in the grinder with Khabib, I don't think McGregor(who already has suspect endurance) will have the energy to dance for distance, fight TDs, and output offense.
"But the Mendes fight!", was completely different for a multitude of reasons. First, Khabib is a lot bigger than Mendes. As anyone who has ever rolled will tell you, it takes a lot more energy to wrestle out from under a bigger opponent. Second, Mendes was content with sitting in McGregor's guard and throwing elbows. This allowed McGregor to reserve energy by just lying on his back, holding guard(without having to put up much of a fight), and trying to avoid shots. Khabib never sits in guard and is constantly transitioning, feinting/setting up submissions, or trapping arms to land better punches. McGregor will constantly have to fight or he is going to get pounded out or subbed. Last, but certainly not least, Khabib will not, and has never, gassed out after one round.
IMO, it is an interesting fight for the first round. If it goes longer than that, Khabib is winning the fight. I really don't see it going any other way. For that reason, I favor Khabib. But if you're banking on Conor being One-Punch Man and pulling another Aldo out of his hat, against a guy who hasn't even really been rocked.
