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I'm a big Sergei Pavlovich fan so it gives me no satisfaction to say this. I also freely admit that he is a lethal finisher on the feet and he could very well spark Curtis in the first round, like his last 5 opponents. I hope I'm wrong and that's what he does. But Blaydes is the best wrestler in the division and Sergei has never faced someone that can do what Blaydes can. The last time he fought someone with good takedowns, Overeem in 2018, he got easily taken down and quickly finished on the ground.
Blaydes has improved his striking and all he has to do is not get knocked out until he gets to the clinch/shot. Unless Pav has radically improved his grappling, if Curtis gets a hold of him I doubt he can stop the TD. It then becomes a question of can he get up, which I also doubt, and if not, can he stall and defend on his back to avoid getting finished, which I think he probably can. Blaydes will probably just hold him down and throw some pitter-patter GNP to prevent the stand up and win the decision. If Sergei reacts like he did against Overeem though he will get finished.
All Pav's exceptional reach, speed, timing, accuracy, distance control and power will mean nothing if Curtis can close the distance and force him to grapple and although Sergei is very good, I don't think he is good enough, or well rounded enough, to avoid or refuse a grappling match. Blaydes's rudimentary but improved striking will be enough to bridge the gap. So Blaydes wins a one-sided decision and fights... Stipe? Gane? or Jones, presumably. Good thing Ngannou is out of the picture because he has already lost to him twice.