I think that, as the months pass, it will be easy to know if the Floyd UFC fight will happen because Conor will delay any fight announcements and remain inactive. At present I believe Conor is finalising an offer to challenge the winner of Khabib vs Ferguson ... but if there is any real chance to meet Floyd in the octagon then all that will be stalled. No way they will want to risk his image, reputation or an injury agains a tough opponent, with the possibility of another 500 million show in a few more months. So I think that Conor's April challenges and fight announcements, or lack of, will be a big "hint" on the reality of the Floyd situation. They both love money and attention, whilst the UFC needs a huge show, so actually I'd say it's 50/50 at present. Unfortunately, because I'd much prefer Conor fighting a UFC champion soon and Floyd a top boxer if he really still wants to compete (should stay retired IMO).