Glory 51 Rotterdam: Badr vs Hesdy II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Feb 25, 2018.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  2. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Some very interesting fights on this card. In the main event I think that a very fit looking Badr Hari at 97 kg, his lightest weight in years, probably knocks out Hesdy Gerges early if he puts it on him. But the moneyline price around -400 is quite high to bet it, especially with how wild Badr is. Would be shocking if he got DQed again though like in their first fight eight years ago. I would love to take the under 2½ rounds near even on this, but the major sportsbooks like 5D, BM & Sportsbook.com only picked up the moneylines, not the over/unders that BetDSI apparently has, and I'm a little reluctant to deposit at BetDSI with the things I have read online lately.

    In one of the two welterweight contender tournament fights I like Eyevan Danenberg to use his extreme height and length to most likely win a decision as a -175 favorite against French muay thai stylist and experienced kickboxer Jimmy Vienot in what I expect to be a fairly competitive bout. On the other side of the bracket I like Argentinian kickboxer Alan Scheinson to potentially get the upset as a +140 underdog over Thongchai Sitsongpeenong at +140. Thongchai was away for a year serving in the Thai military and comes back claiming to have lost quite a bit of weight (14 kg) in preparation for this bout while Scheinson has many more K-1 style kickboxing bouts compared to Thongchai's vast muay thai experience.

    The featured bout of the SuperFight Series on Fight Pass has former welterweight champion Cedric Doumbe of France taking on surging Azerbaijani Alim Nabiev who is 2-0 in Glory coming off a big win over former welterweight champion Nieky Holzken. Nabiev (sometimes spelled Nabiyev) is very skilled and fairly aggressive plus he is a very large 77 kg fighter. He towered over Cedric at the weigh-in like he did against Nieky. So I like the value on Nabiev at +150 to get the upset again over another former Glory welterweight champion for my biggest bet of the card.

    Taller featherweight kickboxer Massaro Glunder looks to rebound from three decision losses in Glory against French muay thai veteran Victor "Leo" Pinto. Glunder is the bigger man to begin with and he also missed weight slightly on the second attempt on the scale, which is to his advantage as the bigger man if he isn't too drained from the effort. Pinto explained in one of the Inside Glory videos that he normally would not accept the fight with a weight discrepancy, but he traveled a long way and had a lot of fans that came to see him, so they made a deal for him to take some of Glunder's purse to accept the bout. So with the size and psychological advantage I like Glunder as a -175 favorite.

    In one of the other notable SFS bouts, young phenom Mohammed Jaraya makes his Glory debut with a fair amount of hype and a lot of controversy after attacking a judge in a previous fight in European kickboxing promotion Enfusion and getting suspended. He has a lot of stoppages, but he's fighting in Glory up at 77 kg after mostly competing at 70 kg or less previously. His opponent Miles Simson from Suriname with a lot of international fighting experience did not seem intimidated and has a significant size advantage, so there could be value on Simson as a +236 underdog in this tournament reserve bout if you have a book with that line.
     
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  3. JBJISGOAT

    JBJISGOAT Brown Belt

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    Tailing the Nabiev bet…had my eye on him before reading your analysis and I think you have it spot on…only bet for this card and going 2 full units at +140.
     
  4. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    1u Glunder + Danenberg +148
    2u Nabiev +165

    Thanks, Jim.
     
  5. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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    1u - Nabiev @2.65
    0.5u - Glunder + Danenberg + Badr KO @4.37
    Added...
    1u - Glunder + Danenberg + Badr @3.80
    Added...
    Miles Simson @3.00
    Betway have Glunder @1.83
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2018
  6. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Glory 51 Risk $700.00

    Eyevan Danenberg (-175) vs Jimmy Vienot $175.00 for $100.00
    Alan Scheinson (+140) vs Thongchai Sitsongpeenong $100.00 for $140.00
    Alim Nabiev (+150) vs Cedric Doumbe $200.00 for $300.00
    Massaro Glunder (-170) vs Victor Pinto $170.00 for $100.00
    Miles Simson (+236) vs Mohammed Jaraya ~$55.00 for ~$129.80
     
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  7. Karmello

    Karmello Purple Belt

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    Unibet now has Nabiev @2,8. Tempting but to be honest I think Doumbe will move around the ring and get the decision victory.

    Still worth to take a little stab at these odds.

    1u on Nabiev it is :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2018
  8. Karmello

    Karmello Purple Belt

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    Very close first round but I would give it to Nabiev

    All judges give it to Doumbe
     
  9. Karmello

    Karmello Purple Belt

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    2nd round should def be for Nabiev

    All coming down to this one
     
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  10. JBJISGOAT

    JBJISGOAT Brown Belt

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    Leggooooo Nabiev
     
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  11. Karmello

    Karmello Purple Belt

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    Wooow what a round for Nabiev, this one should be in the pocket
     
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  12. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Whoooooooooooo. Nabiev raelly turned it on in round 3. Didn't tail but nice win boys. Good pick Jim
     
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  13. Karmello

    Karmello Purple Belt

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    Now on to the main card, can't wait for the Badr fight. It's going to be crazy for sure!
     
  14. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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    Oh baby, Nab hits and we’re freerolling the rest of the card :D
     
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  15. Bless

    Bless Orange Belt

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    Thanks Jim for the Nabiev pick :D
     
  16. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Another big upset for Nabiev. Love this guy!
     
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  17. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    and we love you!
     
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  18. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    Great stuff as always,+4.78u for the event.
    Thanks Jim!
     
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  19. minowasmullet

    minowasmullet Orange Belt

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    Damn im jealous of you guys who can bet Kickboxing
     
  20. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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