Glory 43 NYC- Adegbuyi vs Inocente

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 12, 2017.

  1. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    [​IMG]

    GLORY Kickboxing 43: New York
    Fri, Jul 14, 2017
    Madison Square Garden - New York
    ESPN3 at 10:00pm ET

    Heavyweight Bout:

    Guto Inocente +485
    Benjamin Adegbuyi -855

    Over 2.5 -190
    Under 2.5 +150
    -

    Lightweight Bout:

    Elvis Gashi +145
    Josh Jauncey -185

    Over 2.5 -215
    Under 2.5 +165
    -

    Glory Kickoxing SuperFight Series
    UFC Fight Pass at 7:30PM ET

    Interim Light Heavyweight Title Headline Bout:

    Saulo Cavalari +200
    Pavel Zhuravlev -280

    Over 2.5 -175
    Under 2.5 +135
     
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  2. Ballsaque Purple Belt

    Ballsaque
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    Why's Cavalari such a dog here
     
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  3. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    Only three bettable fights so far for this card, but I think some of these lines are off. I like the under 2½ at +165 when I bet it in the Jauncey/Gashi fight as Josh Jauncey has stopped most of his Glory opponents other than the top ranked ones and Gashi is debuting in Glory. In the heavyweight fight two time title challenger Benjamin Adegbuyi surely should be the favorite, but massive line movement with people laying bets or parlaying the Romanian has gotten Guto Inocente up to a whopping +1050. I thought Hesdy Gerges- also a very good heavyweight- would beat Inocente, but the Brazilian managed to eke out a split decision not long ago. Indeed, Inocente has won all his fights in Glory except most recently losing a unanimous decision to 6' 9" giant Ben Saddik from Morocco. So I think that there is value in Inocente at +1050, especially at heavyweight. Lastly, in the interim LHW title fight, hard hitting Brazilian Saulo Cavalari at +170 has value in my opinion too against top ranked Russian Pavel Zhuralev despite losing a decision to him a few years ago in K-1. Cavalari has beaten all of his opponents in Glory except currently injured champion Artem Vakhitov and fearsome Tyrone Spong a few years ago. These bets could easily go 0 for 3 or 1 for 3, but I'm playing the value here.
     
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  4. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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  5. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Tebowned
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    Full card

     
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  6. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    Glory 43 Risk $503.40

    Guto Inocente (+1130) vs Benjamin Adegbuyi $100.00 for $1,130.00
    Guto Inocente (+1050) vs Benjamin Adegbuyi $100.00 for $1,050.00

    Josh Jauncey/Elvis Gashi Under 2½ (+165) $100.00 for $165.00

    Saulo Cavalari (+170) vs Pavel Zhuravlev $100.00 for $170.00

    Mo Abdurahman (+118) vs Kevin Vannostrand ~$103.40 for ~$122.01
     
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  7. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    wow, congrats, jim
     
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  8. JBJISGOAT Green Belt

    JBJISGOAT
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    Did inocente win? I tailed Jim for $20 to win $200...
     
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  9. Tony J Orange Belt

    Tony J
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    Wow @ JimGunn. *bows*

    Just lovely. I was looking at that line today with no research and thinking "man, what if.." Great win!
     
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  10. Cord White Belt

    Cord
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    Congratulations Jim, outstanding call.
     
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  11. Papi Blue Belt

    Papi
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    Good work @JimGunn i tailed inocente as well! Good day today
     
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