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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by piglord, Oct 1, 2017.
Any rumor on cutelaba's replacement? I cant find anything
Im still parlaying Shore cos id rather double my money than get 50% return from just Houston (im using groves in boxing too)
Decent mate will have to research houston
Lee now at +125 and Klein at -165. I wanted to bet Lee at underdog odds but sheesh just watched all of his fights and he looks like exactly the flakey type of fighter that I can't bet on. 6'0 and long as hell but has no idea how to manage distance and use it to his advantage. Up until his last fight with Formela, Lee would just let his opponent dictate where the fight go and react. In general he'd do well but his poor fight IQ led him to making bad decisions repeatedly. If he's not finishing you in the 1st with a submission, he's going to probably lose a decision and gas out terribly.
Pre-ACB, Klein looked like a killer fighting in regionals. Good offensive guard, good active GnP. He knew the right moments to let his offense go. Definitely hittable but he's fine taking one to give a few. In his two ACB fights, Klein's power and striking were somewhat neutralized by strong Russian wrestlers with names ending in "ov". If Lee comes out trying to pressure like he did against Formela, he's going to get lit up. Klein is probably too competent on the ground to get caught in sub in the 1st round so I think he edges it.
Lawler-dos Anjos to headline UFC on FOX 26 in Winnipeg
What a fight!
Not sure how Aaron Khalid keeps winning his fights but they seem all to be due to mental errors of his opponents. First of all, the guy gets muscled around even at 155. At 170, it looks like anyone can just take him down at will and stay on top if they wanted. Adam Proctor and Phil Wells basically neutralized Khalid for all of the first round. Then the same thing happens to both of them in the 2nd. They are in dominant position and Khalid goes for a leglock. they decide to play the game with him and then in a scramble Khalid locks up a submission. Almost the same thing happens in both fights.
Think Houston will be better everywhere here unless he gets lazy and gifts a sub to Khalid. Houston's boxing is pretty damn good for this level of mma. It's better than most guys fighting in the UFC actually. Khalid leaves his lead left hand out and low during exchanges and constantly gets tagged. Khalid does have some nice kicks which might land to Houston's body since this will be orthodox vs southpaw, but he doesn't move out of range fast enough after landing not to get hurt or thrown down to the canvas after. If I were Houston I'd just keep it standing and light Khalid up. Even if a grappling exchange is initiated, I wouldn't worry because Khalid tries some really lazy head/arm throws. Against Houston this probably means getting his back taken.
Just don't see how Khalid wins this. Might have value at even -190. I just hate betting low level chalk but man. Does anybody see this fight going differently here?
That's a nice one.
Another fight that I'm really expecting and seems a bit underrated due to their positions in the rankings is Drakkar Klose vs David Teymur at UFC 218. Two very exciting prospects for me and it'll be a hell of a fight.
Iaquinta vs. Felder in Detroit.
Watched tape yesterday on almost all fights this weekend with lines and tape available. Just have the Inman and Houston fights left. Everything is sadly a pass so far. I want to bet Lee, but his fight IQ is too low and Klein is opportunistic. Other than that I def favor Lee to win and hes +120.
If Frincu surpasses -200, Millender is worth something small. Frincu is much less athletic and a bit stiff, especially early in the fight as he tries to find openings. If lines remain prob just a pass though as Frincu is a good striker in rhythm and Millender is a bit wild and hiitable.
Let me know what you think of those two matchups when you're done. I just finished taking a look at them too.
I like Houston here since he actually seems reliable, will be bigger, and is better in all areas. Khalid seems to be lucky to have won as much as he has. Not sure if he creates his luck like an Ortega, but definitely not as skilled just on the eye test. If you can see an avenue of victory for Khalid here, let me know because I don't see one myself.
I'm considering backing Inman based on the toughness differential and because he looks good in the clinch, and that's all Craig White appears to want to do (at least until his last outing where he looked decent striking). White's MO is to clinch up, create a scramble, and hope to grab a sub from there. Inman's jitz is strong enough not to get caught in a sub against White. Probably will pass since I'm not positive how well Inman will be able to control the clinch. If Inman he is the stronger guy, he shouldn't have any problems in this fight and is worth betting imo. If you have thoughts on this one as well, let me know.
I like Houston on tape but pass because hes -195 and has been fighting the worst bums ever. Last dude he fought (or maybe two fights ago) there was a point he landed a body knee and dude just covered up and ran away. It was terrible.
I'm so disheartened by watching all this tape and everything being a pass I dont even wanna watch tape for the Inman fight anymore lol
It's really weird watching tape of Aiden Lee. Every fight he seems to come out doing something different and wacky that makes you scratch your head. He's always going for low percentage sub attempts and giving up position doing it, but it's his striking that really looks different each fight.
Against this Adamczyk, an 0-1 bum, he comes out in a Tommy Hearns stance with his lead hand way low and then spams these absolutely ridiculous step-in, uppercuts.
Against Deh, he starts doing random stance switching, throws front kicks and spinning elbows like he's trying to be Anderson Silva.
Against Formela he becomes a pressure fighter and just throws the whole range thing out the window to get in front of Formela's face.
I don't know if he's doing this to confuse his opponent or if he actually just completely scraps his striking style for a new one every few months. If it's the latter, that's something to be concerned about if you're backing him here.
Holy shit, this is the same card as Lawler vs RDA. Amazing card.
^ Wow the line-up is absurd for a free UFC on Fox event
Wow, makes me wonder how UFC 219 will look like
Ponz/Perry is a boner inducing slobber knocker. Should be fun, somebody's going unconscious.
Man I so wish GSP will beat this clown. Don't get me wrong, I bet Bisping @ 2.30, but my heart would be so content with GSP getting his win.
I had recently withdrew a large sum of my bankroll from 5dimes into bitcoins at the crypto price of 3,900 and in the recent month or so it's jumped to 5,700!!
Is anyone else tracking this? I've pulled out early before for a nominal profit only to regret it later when the price kept rising even further.
What do you guys think?
Didn't even know this fight was happening and since nobody is talking about it, last minute play on Emmanuel Newton +350 against Krylov. If it gets past R1 he could easily win
0.57u to win 1.95u
Think he lost by R1 Knee KO. Not surprised. Wish he got it out of R1
Doubt anyone tailed since it was last minute