General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - November, 2017 | Page 8

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by wack3d, Nov 1, 2017.

  1. Joseph Budden Yellow Card

    Joseph Budden
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    Dk why Chael would enter this without a guarantee hes fighting Fedor in the first round. But rumor is Mir vs Fedor.

    Poor Chael gonna die vs everyone else. At least book him vs Roy since I can see that being a funny fight
     
    #141
  2. SBJJ Black Belt

    SBJJ
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    Good Lord Jesus Christ. That Frank Mir Pic
     
    #142
  3. mkess101 Title incoming...

    mkess101
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    This is bizarre. Who is gonna be the betting favorite to win this thing? Meathead?

    I guess gotta wait to see the matchups but I guess I think there's 4 guys who could win it and 4 who couldn't?

    Could: Mir, Meathead, Nelson, Bader

    Even the 4 I think could win it have glaring flaws. Mir is 40 and has a ton of mileage. Nelson ditto. Meathead's grappling can be exposed, and Bader will be way smaller than 4 of these guys.

    And that's the guys I think CAN win this thing.
     
    #143
  4. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Took Swanson -130. He should have a lot of advantages here. I've made a ton on Ortega, but his opportunistic style makes him hard to trust against someone at this level.

    Big step up for him.

    Also took rda +120 vs Lawler. I favor RDA outright, in fact. Don't trust Robbie over 5 rounds these days.
     
    #144
  5. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    BatBoyJG
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    Aldo +190 #yes

    @EzFlyer against you on Swanson/Ortega. Ortega I think wears Cub down over the 5 rounds. Cub is obviously proven, and has the gas tank, but I feel like he has hit a lot of slick grappling transitions that changed momentum in a lot of his fights that just won't be there vs Ortega. Cub will have a pretty good speed advantage which is my biggest worry, but I don't think he will be able to finish Ortega. Any idea on how this moves? I think I'll go small now on +110 and see how it moves.
     
    #145
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2017
    EzFlyer likes this.
  6. Gugabe Yellow Belt

    Gugabe
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    I can't bet on Ortega. He's barely a top 15 FW and has Gump'd his way to where he currently is. He's lost the last 6 rounds that he completed, and I feel like Cub puts together the 'cautious 5-round Jackson fighter' gameplan and wins by wide decision. Also not seeing why you guys think Mir's a slamdunk against Fedor. Mir's just as done as Fedor is and could be 1-7 in his last 8 since that Duffee fight was so fking weird. I don't consider victories over Bigfoot to be wins at this point.
     
    #146
  7. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
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    agree hardcore with both - especially rda.
     
    #147
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  8. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
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  9. Agent Mulder Brown Belt

    Agent Mulder
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    #149
  10. Agent Mulder Brown Belt

    Agent Mulder
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    UFCs "master plan". They hope Nate somehows beat Tyron so that Conor can fight Nate for the WW belt. This confirms Conor wont be fighting Ferguson imo.
     
    #150
  11. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    I think the reality is even lamer than that. The management team at WME-IMG has to pull certain numbers as profit benchmarks for the calendar year 2017 to get bonuses from their financial backers and debt holders- something that got a lot of press at the beginning of the year. UFC 219 occurs on December 30th, and represents their last chance to have another good selling card. So with Conor negotiations pending and time running out, Ronda no longer fighting, Jones suspended, and GSP having just fought they are trying to come up with a name to sell PPVs regardless of whether it makes sense rankings wise. Enter Nate and the need to create a "big fight" to motivate him and justify paying him a bunch of money and PPV points. It's all about the short term right now like when the sales manager of a car dealership who will get a big performance bonus if he sells x number of cars in the calendar year but gets no bonus or peanuts for a bonus if he sells x minus 1 car by 11:59 PM on December 31st. It create a perverse incentive for short term decision making over long term thinking of what is best for the company or the sport.
     
    #151
  12. Agent Mulder Brown Belt

    Agent Mulder
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    Makes sense, you're probably right. Either way it makes me sick.
     
    #152
  13. Rapidryan88 Blue Belt

    Rapidryan88
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    anyone got any acb leans?
     
    #153
  14. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    Sportsbook.com has futures for the winner of the Bellator 2018 Heavyweight Grand Prix if you don't mind tying money up for as long as a year. Betting the field assumes there will be an alternate winning the GP, a not inconceivable outcome if you remember alternate Daniel Cormier winning the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix years ago:

    Chael Sonnen +1200
    Fedor Emelianenko +500
    Frank Mir +380
    Matt Mitrione +200
    Muhammed Lawal +1200
    Quinton Jackson +1500
    Roy Nelson +500
    Ryan Bader +260
    Field (Any Other Fighter) +1000
     
    #154
  15. Joseph Budden Yellow Card

    Joseph Budden
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    Bader +260 is an easy bet. No one is going to beat him. Unless an alternate has to come in for him, even anyone outside the tourny would lose to Bader
     
    #155
  16. AxeMurderer Orange Belt

    AxeMurderer
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    So chael is more likely to win a hw gp than rampage? And meathead is the odds on favorite? Bellator is a joke.
     
    #156
  17. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    What about Meathead? You don't think he can beat Bader?
     
    #157
  18. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    Bellator isn't setting the odds. If you think the oddsmakers are wrong, that's what you want ideally as a bettor. Make them pay for their foolishness by betting who you think has value.
     
    #158
    2bet, raketmannen and Bless like this.
  19. AxeMurderer Orange Belt

    AxeMurderer
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    I understand they don’t make the odds, but they set up a gp where meathead is the favorite. That is a shitty gp.
     
    #159
  20. quincy k Purple Belt

    quincy k
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    mitrione could beat bader.

    imo, he would be a -200 againt the 205lber. matt has skills, kicks, knees and most important ko power in both hands. in fact, the more you think about it, the more you realize that its just stupid to think that mitrione cant beat bader
     
    #160

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