General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - May, 2017 | Page 18

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by mkess101, Apr 30, 2017.

  1. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Jae Gibbz
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    I just want to point out that the Weidman fight is in Long Island. If you thought he had alot of support fighting in Manhattan or Buffalo, he will have even more here. I would be scared to have Kelvin in any close rounds there
     
    #341
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  2. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    This is a tough one for me. I know a lot of people are high on Gastelum (me included) and for good reason, but this is a big step up IMO. As bad as things have been going for Chris recently, he's still on a whole different level from Vitor and Kennedy at this stage of their careers. Not only that, but he's going to have a massive size advantage here. He's 5 inches taller than Gas and he'll gave a 6.5 inch reach advantage.

    The main question for me though, is whether or not Chris can get Gas down and keep him there. It was only four fights ago that Magny was able to get him down repeatedly and he had him in some really bad positions in the first few rounds. If he gives up mount to Chris the way he did vs Magny, I think he's going to be in trouble. That said, his gets up did look a lot better against Kennedy. And if Kelvin can make Chris work for his takedowns/continually get back to his feet, I could certainly see a scenario where Chris gets tired and Kelvin starts lighting him up on the feet. Although, I don't believe Chris will be nearly as out of his element striking with Gastelum as Kennedy was.

    At the end of the day, I think this is a close fight that could play out a few different ways. If Chris ends up at + odds, I'll probably play him for a small to medium sized bet. I think Chris's size and strength are going to be a lot to overcome.

    EDIT: I wrote this thinking it was a 3 round fight. I have to favor Gastelum in a 5 rounder.
     
    #342
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  3. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Tebowned
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    In a 5 round fight I think i'll bet on Kelvin.
    He'll be smaller but after the first 1.5 rounds I don't think it'll matter. Think Weidman is getting tko'd again.
     
    #343
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  4. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    Ah shit, I forgot this was a main event. I was thinking it was going to be three rounds. That makes a huge difference and benefits Kelvin greatly.
     
    #344
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  5. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    i agree that 5 rounds benefits kelvin. annnd now idk what to do.
     
    #345
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  6. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Jae Gibbz
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    I know one play on that fight I will definitely be looking for
     
    #346
  7. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    BatBoyJG
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    Weidman take Gastelum down and pound him. He might gas himself doing that & not finish to where Gastelum comes back & finishes him though. Gastelum got takedown quite easily by Magny & even before that by Musoke.

    I think I'm betting Weidman and then looking to hit Gastelum live. The only think I'm sure of in that fight is that Weidman is going to get some takedowns.
     
    #347
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  8. timmyclax22 Blue Belt

    timmyclax22
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    Thanks for the input guys. I try not to let the ties I have to him and also at the same time being a fan of Chris sway my judgement in his fights but of course it's hard.

    I have bet him in every single UFC fight other than Luke and Yoel and think I'll be on him again here. I think betting Gastelum after round 1 (if it lasts that long!) live might be a great play as Chris has won the 1st round in every single fight he's had.

    Not sure if my thoughts overall on the fight yet.
     
    #348
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  9. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    Unibet has lines on KSW, any leans?

    upload_2017-5-16_21-19-30.png
     
    #349
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  10. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Tebowned
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    I was hoping Norman Parke was the favorite based on name. Don't really like the odds on his opponent.
     
    #350
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  11. trucido Orange Belt

    trucido
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    Wow I'm very surprised Parke is the underdog. Saying that, I've never seen Gamrot fight before, could be some value. Need to watch tape on Gamrot before I make any decisions though.
     
    #351
  12. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Tebowned
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    Parke has recently spoke about not being motivated. This is actually his last fight. He spoke about retiring last year too until McGregor talked him out of it.


    http://www.mmanews.com/ex-tuf-winner-norman-parke-retiring-after-upcoming-bout/
     
    #352
  13. Joseph Budden GTM Gym, Tan, Make #Elite Bets

    Joseph Budden
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    {<huh}

    But yeah, Gamrot is really good
     
    #353
  14. trucido Orange Belt

    trucido
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    Yeah I've been reading about that, but apart from the retirement talks, do you know if Gamrot is legit or not? Also, Parke later tweeted out saying that this may not be his last fight, he said he's going to see how the fight goes and decide what to do with his career afterwards.
     
    #354
  15. trucido Orange Belt

    trucido
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    I just mean in the sense that it's a UFC vet who preformed pretty well at a high level vs an undefeated polish bloke. I'll have to check out his fights now though if you're saying he's good.
     
    #355
  16. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
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    got 2 units on parke +240
    yes he opened +240 on some euro bookies
    gamrot is pretty good but this is his biggest test thus far

    @Wiktoruspro should have some insight on the local polish mma scene
     
    #356
  17. trucido Orange Belt

    trucido
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    I think Boetsch being nearly a +200 dog to Hendricks is insane. That fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Also love Kelly at +180, that guy is a money maker.
     
    #357
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  18. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    how many fights does hunt have left on his contract? seems a stupid move for him to come back so soon after such a bad KO, is he potentially just trying to get out of his contract as soon as he can?
     
    #358
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  19. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    was going to post almost the exact same thing, I'm fairly confident in a weidman bet at his current line, he has a very good chance of taking kelvin down and making it easy to hedge for a potential fade of his cardio late in the fight.
     
    #359
  20. raketmannen Blue Belt

    raketmannen
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    Well since Maia, possibly the best grappler in the ufc, did not come close to submitting Masvidal that's not too bad of a look for Chiesa
     
    #360
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