General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by kenfloshogun, Feb 28, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I know we said the same vs Frankie so I hesitate to even ask LOL, but do you see much chance T City wins other than by sub?
     
  2. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    No, I plan to continue to lose money betting against Ortega.
     
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  3. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Well I can’t see him winning a decision, that’s for sure lol
     
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  4. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Green Belt

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    Anyone like Cerrone at +155? I don’t know much about Leon Edwards
     
  5. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Yes. Edwards wants to use his grappling and work from top position. He did a nice job vs a very good grappler in Sobotta. But Cowboy's MMA guard is a different animal imo.

    The guys who have given Cowboy problems are guys who can pressure him standing early in the fight and hit him with power shots. I don't think that's really Edwards strength.

    I'm not saying I heavily favor Cowboy but I do def like him at + odds here.
     
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  6. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    I know this isn't until July 14th, but should Sage Northcutt be a -145 favorite to Zak Ottow's +115 at welterweight? Sage hasn't actually won a bout at welterweight in the UFC.
     
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  7. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Exact same read, just finished tape. Five rounds favors cowboy, he takes a bit at times to settle into his rhythm, which is why the early power shots have bothered him, but once he does I think he is too much for edwards standing. Cowboy also has a lot of tools against wrestlers, hence why we rarely (ever?) see him grinded for long periods.
     
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  8. GrantSorenson

    GrantSorenson White Belt

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    Well I will buck the trend and say that I don't think Edwards will have too many problems with Cerrone. He can beat him standing and can grind him down on the ground. Just my opinion but I rate Edwards. I'll be very very surprised if he loses to Cerrone
     
  9. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Others i've discussed with like Edwards here too. Wondering what makes you think he can win standing or do you beleive he can spark Cerrone here? He is just so low volume I find it difficult he wins a decision unless he successfully mixes in his wrestling and negates Cerrone's guard for long periods of top control time.
     
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  10. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Green Belt

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    Thanks i took some of that +155 it seems to have value. I was wrong on cerrone vs till but now that we know what till is that made complete sense.
     
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  11. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Leon opened at +115 and I hit that for 1.5u thinking he would get bet up and now I have a great freeroll opprotunity with Cowboy at decent dog odds.

    Gonna study Leons wrestling offense and Cowboys guard this week to see if I can spot something Cowboy can take advantage of.
     
  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Cowboy's guard is SO underrated when it comes to MMA effectiveness imo. Edwards is gonna find out that as good a grappler as Sobotta is, when it comes to MMA he's not on Cerrone's level.

    IIRC maybe Jury (a good grappler) put Cowboy on his back once but was easily swept? May have been a different fight. Anyway I remember researching Cerrone for another fight and even went as far back as his WEC fights. His MMA grappling game shocked me in how effective it was overall. We haven't seen a ton of it lately as he's been in all standup fights but on the mat he really is elite.
     
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  13. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    I would agree based on what I remember. I think Jury hit him with a TD after a checked leg Kick by Cowboy. Cowboy is good at trapping limbs and good at capitalizing on space created during a scramble or when an opponent postures up to strike. Very big problem for a wrestler even at the high level. Ask Kevin Lee what thats like lol
     
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  14. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Amen. My favorite MMA betting pass-time.
     
  15. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    probably not gonna bet much on this one but might play DC small at those odds to freeroll. just see it being unlikely his price gets much better from here. stipe has never really fought wrestlers and certainly not one of dc's level so that makes the dynamic here interesting. no huge lean overall though.. i think stipe wins but think im just gonna sit back and enjoy this one.

    DC 3.45 at some US books now if you can get it.
     
  16. BigDramaShow26

    BigDramaShow26 Blue Belt

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    Man I just cant get past that DC line. +250 on 5dimes. I'm capping myself at 750 in Vegas and I'm tempted to put half of that on that line.
     
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Yeah I agree. Line is flipped from where it should be imo. I slightly favor Ottow. His grappling is underrated and Sage has tried to wrestle a lot lately. Ottow should be the bigger guy too. Sage probably will have a slight edge standing just due better speed but he also leaves himself open to being hit pretty often.
     
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  18. northsofia

    northsofia Orange Belt

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    And what do you guys think about Blagoy/Junior - 2.30/1.62
    Blagoy has some nice boxing and i am not sure if we can trust Dos Santos`s chin anymore. Junior is for sure on another level compared to Blagoy`s previous opponents but his only loss is from Volkov and i am not sure if he has ever been in danger in his fights (correct me if i am wrong) and he has a solid chin. I think we can get even better price for Balgoy anyway, so maybe better to wait.
     
  19. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Good call, 1U @ 2.20 is a deal!
     
  20. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    I like Cowboy line, what are your thoughts on OSP?
     

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