General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - June, 2017

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Cerrone is a documented choker and Robbie Lawler is a documented grim reaper soul stealing type. I'm sure somebody can go into the technical breakdown of how the nak muay with poor head movement is likely going to get stunned by somebody with the pressure and powerful boxing of Robbie Lawler (or how the jiu jitsu won't help against somebody with Lawler's TDD), but it's more fun to visualize Cowboy pissing his pants as Robbie spits blood from his busted lips. I like Lawler at the -140 I can find.
 
Shoulder said:
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Unibet has lines on who will be champion in each weight class by the end of the year, some interesting odds:

LW:
Ferg @6.00. Either Conor comes back and fights Ferg, or Conor boxes and then the belt must be dropped and I favor Tony in all LW matchups. I think this might be worth a small play.

MW:
[email protected]. He will chase GSP the whole fall and GSP said after October right? That means it's pretty unlikely for him to have a quick unification fight after that. Would Bisping really skip out on a massive payday vs GSP to get murdered by Romero or Whittaker. And if he does, you have them at 3.75 or 4.00.

Thoughts?
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I like Whittaker, feels like Bisping is more likely to take that fight then anything else. Other then that I agree.
 
Slohog said:
I like Whittaker, feels like Bisping is more likely to take that fight then anything else. Other then that I agree.
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But 2.75 for Whittaker to beat Romero, Bisping accept the fight and then a Whittaker win before the year is over feels like too little.
 
Betway:
Romero -150
Whittaker +120
 
Kelvin gastelum at -140 is looking mighty sexy I know the fight isn't until July but this line should go up. weidman has looked horrible his last few fights and gastelum has been amazing. I don't see weidman being able to work his takedowns and control gastelum on the ground. The standup isn't even close and weidmans chin has shown to be suspect in his last two fights.
 
Monster Meat said:
Kelvin gastelum at -140 is looking mighty sexy I know the fight isn't until July but this line should go up. weidman has looked horrible his last few fights and gastelum has been amazing. I don't see weidman being able to work his takedowns and control gastelum on the ground. The standup isn't even close and weidmans chin has shown to be suspect in his last two fights.
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I don't agree with this other than Gastelum having crisper boxing. Long Island bias aside.

He won the first round of each of the last 3 fights (Rockhold, Romero, and Mousassi) and dominated Mousassi during that first round.

Only time he's been KO'd was the Romero knee from hell and he took a fuckin beating against Luke but still came out there until it was stopped.

I haven't bet the fight yet but this is a big step up in comp for KG and I believe Middleweight to actually be the most competitive division in the top 6 or so with the champion being the worst of the 6 and most fights being a coin flip on any day.
 
lawmills2006 said:
Damn.....Not touching Whittaker on that.

I think this is a LB fight, wait until R2/3 and if Whittaker is still alive then Bam!
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Romero is the king of third round finishes though. He is kind of like Black beast, he know he just need the right opportunity to finish anyone, so he doesn't mind losing rounds waiting for that to happen. The fight is gonna be bonkers but I'm gonna be heavy on Bobby Knuckles.
 
Shoulder said:
Romero is the king of third round finishes though. He is kind of like Black beast, he know he just need the right opportunity to finish anyone, so he doesn't mind losing rounds waiting for that to happen. The fight is gonna be bonkers but I'm gonna be heavy on Bobby Knuckles.
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He's also the king of shitting himself, literally. Just sayin'
 
Monster Meat said:
Kelvin gastelum at -140 is looking mighty sexy I know the fight isn't until July but this line should go up. weidman has looked horrible his last few fights and gastelum has been amazing. I don't see weidman being able to work his takedowns and control gastelum on the ground. The standup isn't even close and weidmans chin has shown to be suspect in his last two fights.
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timmyclax22 said:
I don't agree with this other than Gastelum having crisper boxing. Long Island bias aside.

He won the first round of each of the last 3 fights (Rockhold, Romero, and Mousassi) and dominated Mousassi during that first round.

Only time he's been KO'd was the Romero knee from hell and he took a fuckin beating against Luke but still came out there until it was stopped.

I haven't bet the fight yet but this is a big step up in comp for KG and I believe Middleweight to actually be the most competitive division in the top 6 or so with the champion being the worst of the 6 and most fights being a coin flip on any day.
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I'm still considering the best way to bet the fight but I tend to agree with @timmyclax22 on this one. As badly as things have gone for Weidman lately, he's still several levels above the guys who Gas has fought at MW thus far. Chris is also going to have a massive size advantage and a 6.5" reach advantage here. Kennedy did have some success against Gas early, and I'm expecting Chris to as well.

The issue for me is that this is a 5 round fight, and if Chris can't put Gas away in the first few rounds (which is going to be no easy task) I think he's going to struggle to survive late. Gas has great cardio and if the takedowns aren't coming for Chris, he's going to get boxed up badly and probably finished.

I do favor Gas slightly, but I'm thinking it might be better to wait and look to live bet him after the second or third round depending on how the fight is progressing. I might possibly consider a pre-fight bet on Weidman ITD/rd 1/rd2 as well since I have a hard time seeing him winning a decision here. Fight doesn't go the distance at -165 might hold some value as well.
 
i'm going to be heavy on reaper if he's + odds come fight night.
 
betsafe has odds

overeem + lawler + shevchenko + hendricks = parlay lock of the year. pays money back 8.34X easy money
 
will take Whitaker at anything above evens, don't see him being the dog come fight night tbh
 
Jason Knight stepping in for KZ vs Lamas at UFC 214. Love that fight.
 
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