General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - February, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Rapidryan88, Feb 1, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,374
    Likes Received:
    5,773
    Location:
    Sewers
    they limited me to £17 like a total hoe.
     
    BatBoyJG and pytycrys like this.
  2. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2017
    Messages:
    1,545
    Likes Received:
    922
    So then Savvidis is a bet @3.50
     
  3. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    2,830
    Likes Received:
    4,001
    Location:
    Wash


    Finally groovy lando gets another fight. I guess oam didn't want to rebook?
     
  4. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    2,830
    Likes Received:
    4,001
    Location:
    Wash


    And another great fight announcement for good measure.
     
    iGnP likes this.
  5. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,374
    Likes Received:
    5,773
    Location:
    Sewers
    fuck yeah, still got my gastelum to be champ by the end of the year bet live. i just hope robert can squeeze two fights in (or potentially just one if he loses) this year with his injuries.
     
    iGnP and Naught2Sixty like this.
  6. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    24,948
    Likes Received:
    10,081
    What odds you got on Kelvin? Obviously you will hedge out with Bob even though he'll be super juiced if Kelvin were to get the title shot?
     
  7. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,374
    Likes Received:
    5,773
    Location:
    Sewers
    £30 returns £450 whatever that works out as.
     
  8. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    24,948
    Likes Received:
    10,081
    American odds +1500.

    If Kelvin beats Jacare and looks decent doing so and Bob wins one fight prior to that (Yoel rematch or whatever) I'd say Bob will be maybe -250 to -300 vs Kelvin?

    You'll be able to lock up some nice profit if Kelvin gets his shot imo.
     
  9. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,526
    Likes Received:
    5,182
    why not let it ride? that's like hedging a SB future. you have amazing odds, you should let it ride

    /rant
     
  10. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    24,948
    Likes Received:
    10,081
    For sure you could, to me it would depend how you cap the fight. Personally, I think Robert is a horrible matchup for Kelvin but that said if you end up having to pay too much juice on Bob I could definitely see letting it ride. I suppose it depends on the line if the fight happens and how you feel about the matchup.

    In MMA esp, a future bet to be champ might have you feeling way way different about whether to hedge based on the matchup if your guy gets to a title shot. Styles making fights and all that.
     
  11. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,526
    Likes Received:
    5,182
    how you cap the fight is precisely the reason you should let it ride. +1500 is 6.3%. Surely you can't think there's no value in that.
     
  12. Tony J

    Tony J Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2005
    Messages:
    651
    Likes Received:
    329
    Burmese Python a -570 favorite tomorrow? Seems like a touch much. Moving up in weight against a bigger BJJ black belt that will look for the takedown. Grappling against someone that much larger is exhausting if you're not used to it.
     
  13. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,374
    Likes Received:
    5,773
    Location:
    Sewers
    i'm probably just going to let it ride, £450 or thereabouts is normally what i'd win every weekend on my 2 man parlays (which have been sucking dick lately).
     
  14. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    24,948
    Likes Received:
    10,081
    Of course. But if you cap Whit -350 and he opens -150 (just as an example) I could see hedging out some if you want to be a bit more conservative. It's definitely not wrong to still let it ride, but at the very least freerolling it isn't a horrible idea imo. It's only if you see a lot of value on the guy you DON'T have in your futures bet vs the actual line.

    You don't even have to necessarily look at it as "hedging". You could say "When I first made my future bet on Kelvin at +1500 to hold the title, I saw great value in it so I bet it." Then look at your current bet as a completely separate bet. "I heavily favor Whit over Kelvin and cap him at -350. At -150 he is a steal so I'm betting him."
     
  15. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,526
    Likes Received:
    5,182
    That'd be somewhat equivalent to me hedging my Eagles SB bet at +5000 win the Pats ML before the SB starts. Obv hindsight is 20/20 but yeah...
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2018
  16. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    24,948
    Likes Received:
    10,081
    Kind of. I guess it depends on how you viewed the game as a stand-alone. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that you shouldn't let the futures bet you made a year ago influence you into betting or not betting something where you see value.

    I'd say it works the other way too honestly. Let's say Kelvin is +1000 on the ML vs Bob (won't happen, but for this hypothetical we'll go with it). Just because you have a futures bet on Kelvin at better odds than that doesn't necessarily mean you wouldn't add to it if you saw huge value in his ML right? Obviously you need to still practice BR management, etc. but even though you are diluting your original price, you are getting more $ in on something you perceive as having great value.

    I guess my point is, don't hedge just to hedge. But if you see value, bet it like you normally would. Esp given that unless you are being really reckless, you probably don't have a big bet on a long shot future anyway. You've invested small to win big, so you don't have a lot of your own $ on it anyway. When it comes near the end and you're still alive, play it normally. If Whit is -200 and @piglord caps him -300, he should still play Whit in that spot imo.
     
  17. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,202
    Likes Received:
    9,235
    Molly KO was +350 at Betsafe while sub is +200 lmao! Sorry i moved it quick lads but this is a 5 round fight very unlikely Bryony lasts. Molly is a mini Andrade on the feet
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2018
    pytycrys and Rapidryan88 like this.
  18. wack3d

    wack3d Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2006
    Messages:
    14,845
    Likes Received:
    6,459
    looks like Nastyukhin dominated (could not find a stream).. hope someone else got on him at +odds :)

     
    Rapidryan88 and pytycrys like this.
  19. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2016
    Messages:
    1,497
    Likes Received:
    1,552
    Nice, I had one unit on him close to evens.
    Do you know the result for Machado as well?
     
  20. timmyclax22

    timmyclax22 Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2016
    Messages:
    1,100
    Likes Received:
    730
    Wonder where this puts Weidman and who he fights next.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page