Forbes: GOP bill "end of all economic sanity" in US, start of greatest fiscal disaster in US history

Trotsky

Banned
Banned
Joined
May 20, 2016
Messages
34,432
Reaction score
15,874
If it's enacted, the GOP tax cut now working its way through Congress will be the start of a decades-long economic policy disaster unlike any other that has occurred in American history.

There's no economic justification whatsoever for a tax cut at this time. U.S. GDP is growing, unemployment is close to 4 percent (below what is commonly considered "full employment"), corporate profits are at record levels and stock markets are soaring. It makes no sense to add any federal government-induced stimulus to all this private sector-caused economic activity, let alone a tax cut as big as this one.





This is actually the ideal time for Washington to be doing the opposite. But by damning the economic torpedoes and moving full-speed ahead, House and Senate Republicans and the Trump White House are setting up the U.S. for the modern-day analog of the inflation-producing guns-and-buttereconomic policy of the Vietnam era. The GOP tax bill will increase the federal deficit by $2 trillion or more over the next decade (the official estimates of $1.5 trillion hide the real amount with a witches brew of gimmicks and outright lies) that, unless all the rules have changed, is virtually certain to result in inflation and much higher interest rates than would otherwise occur.

The GOP's insanity is compounded by its moving ahead without having any idea of what this policy will actually do to the economy. The debates in the Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees and on the House floor all took place before the Congressional Budget Office's analysis and, if it really exists, the constantly-promised-but-never-seen report from the Treasury on the economics of this tax bill.


Meanwhile, Congress has ignored other estimates like this one from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School showing that the tax bill won't do what the GOP is promising.

In other words, the GOP tax bill may be enacted without anyone who votes for it having any understanding of the damage it could do to the economy. They have wishes, hopes and prayers but in reality nothing beyond the economic equivalent of pagan superstition.

The real economic insanity of the GOP's tax bill will be felt in future years. Consider the following.

  • The $1 trillion a year budget deficit will not be the result of cyclical changes that will be reversed when the economy improves. These will be permanent structural deficit increases.
  • The tax hikes that will be needed to resolve the structural imbalance between federal spending and revenues will be impossible for political reasons.
  • Whenever the U.S. economy grows more slowly than expected or there's a downturn, an annual deficit of $2 trillion could easily become the norm.
  • The federal government will have far less ability to respond to economic downturns unless previously unimaginable and politically intolerable deficits, tax increases or spending cuts suddenly become acceptable.
  • Reduce the national debt? As they say in New York, fuhgeddaboudit at least in the next decade.
  • Much more national debt plus rising interest rates means interest on the national debt will be the fastest growing part of the federal budget.
  • Without massive cuts in Social Security, Medicare and the Pentagon, it won't be possible to reduce federal spending enough to do more than tweak the deficit.
  • Washington's ability to invest in anything new that will improve the economy (think infrastructure, education and medical research) will be far less given the already-high deficits.
  • Even though the limits to monetary policy became obvious the past few years, the Federal Reserve will be the major economic policy maker in Washington over the next decade.
In other words, if the GOP tax bill is enacted, Congress and the president this year will give up almost all ability to deal with the U.S. economy for at least a decade even when, as almost certainly will happen, there's a downturn. No one else will be able to fulfill this role.

That's almost a textbook definition of economic insanity.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stanco...l-economic-sanity-in-washington/#52b7cef077ef


Hey, but at least they deport ILLEGALS
 
Last edited:
Forbes is a neo-Marxist publication and everyone knows it.
 
I think you country does have illegal problem. But anarcho and capitalists is big issue.

What will happen is what always a boom cycle then dump. I think America see big growth for few years then other collapse in 7 or 8 years.
 
I think you country does have illegal problem.

We really don't, though.

The effect of illegal residency is pretty unsubstantial and can anyways be resolved by a robust naturalization program. For all the clamor from the right, the solution has always been obvious. And the GOP knows this, which is why they tentatively agreed to providing a robust path to citizenship in 2015, knowing it was the only way forward. However, they had riled up their base so much over illegal immigration, senselessly to be sure, that their base ousted Cantor and put an end to meaningful immigration reform, as, as always, the Republicans really only care about remaining in power.

What will happen is what always a boom cycle then dump. I think America see big growth for few years then other collapse in 7 or 8 years.

Because the country is still in the middle, and certainly more towards the beginning, of paying off the previous crisis initiated by Reagan, Clinton, and GW, and because of the huge and hugely unsubstantiated nature of these cuts, this "collapse" will be unlike any other. If the bill passes, there is 99.9% certainty that it will cause a crisis that future generations will be paying off for decades.
 
TS and Forbes hate success
 
Doom and gloom, sounds like business as usual.

Will it be even more expensive and detrimental than the war on drugs and the war on terrorism...
 
Doom and gloom, sounds like business as usual.

Will it be even more expensive and detrimental than the war on drugs and the war on terrorism...
What's your point here? Its not as bad as the WoD or the WoT so hey let's do it anyway?
 
Doom and gloom, sounds like business as usual.

Lol

"The leading economic experts are universally saying this bill is illogical, contrary to decades of economic knowledge, and outline the math for how it will implode the economy. They're just trying to SCARE us!"

Tell me, do you usually think Forbes is a "doom and gloom" outlet for alarmism?

Will it be even more expensive and detrimental than the war on drugs and the war on terrorism...

Both of which were initiated by Republicans and which we are still paying off, because the party of fiscal idiocy didn't budget for them.

And both were probably supported by Republicans who said "well, it can't be more of a major fuck up than the last time we did something reactionary and illogical."

Also, yes, it probably will be.
 
What's your point here? Its not as bad as the WoD or the WoT so hey let's do it anyway?
I’m not saying it isn’t a bad tax bill, it’s just that I rarely see media criticize the war on terror and war on drugs as the end of all sanity despite the fact that we are continuing year after year “fighting” these wars without making us safer or free from drugs.
 
I’m not saying it isn’t a bad tax bill, it’s just that I rarely see media criticize the war on terror and war on drugs as the end of all sanity despite the fact that we are continuing year after year “fighting” these wars without making us safer or free from drugs.

It's because the public still supports them.

The American polity cares about "common sense" solutions. It's common sense that being tough on drug dealers/users will stop drug use and make us safer. It's common sense that going and killing terrorists will make people not want to be terrorists and make us safer.

The problem is that there no longer exists the respect for professional knowledge and inherently republican sense of political representation that used to exist, and now exists democracy in its worst form. In decades past, the government made nods to trivial public concerns while passing actual substantive policy. Now, the GOP panders to those concerns and uses them to gain power while passing counterproductive or outright treacherous policy.
 
I’m not saying it isn’t a bad tax bill, it’s just that I rarely see media criticize the war on terror and war on drugs as the end of all sanity despite the fact that we are continuing year after year “fighting” these wars without making us safer or free from drugs.
That's because you aren't looking. Multiple results from a 10 second search
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/opinion/a-decade-of-failure-in-the-war-on-drugs.html
http://www.newsweek.com/drug-war-expensive-failure-commission-says-269368
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/opinion/sunday/portugal-drug-decriminalization.html
http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/06/opinion/branson-end-war-on-drugs/index.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/04/b...-the-war-on-drugs-start-with-the-numbers.html
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/the-war-on-drugs-a-trillion-dollar-failure-20150625
https://www.cato.org/publications/p...k-lessons-us-foreign-policy-failed-war-terror
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/the-failed-war-on-the-war-on-terror/
http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/10/we-are-losing-the-war-on-terror/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/opinion/trump-afghanistan-war-on-terror.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/books/review/spiral-by-mark-danner.html
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/05/13/ap-impact-years-trillion-war-drugs-failed-meet-goals.html
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new...ensive-failure-bc-study-says/article14667754/

And yes, this is likely to be as expensive. "I haven't seen" rarely means "it doesn't exist," just "I haven't arsed to look."
 
Last edited:
We really don't, though.

The effect of illegal residency is pretty unsubstantial and can anyways be resolved by a robust naturalization program. For all the clamor from the right, the solution has always been obvious. And the GOP knows this, which is why they tentatively agreed to providing a robust path to citizenship in 2015, knowing it was the only way forward. However, they had riled up their base so much over illegal immigration, senselessly to be sure, that their base ousted Cantor and put an end to meaningful immigration reform, as, as always, the Republicans really only care about remaining in power.



Because the country is still in the middle, and certainly more towards the beginning, of paying off the previous crisis initiated by Reagan, Clinton, and GW, and because of the huge and hugely unsubstantiated nature of these cuts, this "collapse" will be unlike any other. If the bill passes, there is 99.9% certainty that it will cause a crisis that future generations will be paying off for decades.

When you think this collapse to happen? It seem always big growth for super rich. Like what happened in 90's and also in 2000s until 2008.
 
When the USSR collapsed a small group of oligarchs profited.

This is part of the "third worldification" that wealthy Americans have been pushing for since the 1980's.

When the USA collapses the same thing will happen as what happened in the USSR. The army will defend the rich and their interests and everything else will be left to rot.

Koch brothers and their ilk want their families to rule America, and don't mind ruling over the ruins of a once great country if that is what it takes.
 
When you think this collapse to happen? It seem always big growth for super rich. Like what happened in 90's and also in 2000s until 2008.

That depends on how quickly, if ever, reason and principle start taking hold in the Republican Party, if subsequent officials are able to resist the temptation of bribery from the rich to keep doing this shit, and how the future generations of political representatives handle the crisis. Frankly, I'm as pessimistic as they come, and I still thought the GOP would have had some level of moral awakening by now.

One thing is for sure: with the existing debt left over from the past 40 years, and with consumer spending power considerably lower than it previously was due to upward distribution of wealth like this GOP tax bill, the chickens will come home to roost much, much sooner than happened in 2008.

I don't think that "collapse" is necessarily the right term, though. It should be more properly described as a long, excruciating uphill walk through waste-deep mud, with constant set backs by lingering Paul Ryan-types.
 
When the USSR collapsed a small group of oligarchs profited.

This is part of the "third worldification" that wealthy Americans have been pushing for since the 1980's.

When the USA collapses the same thing will happen as what happened in the USSR. The army will defend the rich and their interests and everything else will be left to rot.

Koch brothers and their ilk want their families to rule America, and don't mind ruling over the ruins of a once great country if that is what it takes.
Yes. Best part is divide and conquer tactics Republicans fall for. Its a Mexicans fault. It's Muslims fault. Its everyones but who's actually screwing you fault. There is a book on this called what's the matter with kansas if y'all want a finer expose.
 
The rich dont have income - too high taxes. They have gains. 15% to zero% taxed when republicans do amnesty years like Bush did and Trump will do. Pretty nice you can make more money not working and pay a fraction of those who do honorable work.

Making billions like hedge fund managers and pay nothing is an "amesty plan" they can get on board with.
 
Last edited:
When the USSR collapsed a small group of oligarchs profited.

This is part of the "third worldification" that wealthy Americans have been pushing for since the 1980's.

When the USA collapses the same thing will happen as what happened in the USSR. The army will defend the rich and their interests and everything else will be left to rot.

Koch brothers and their ilk want their families to rule America, and don't mind ruling over the ruins of a once great country if that is what it takes.

1510779216512.jpg
 
When the USSR collapsed a small group of oligarchs profited.

This is part of the "third worldification" that wealthy Americans have been pushing for since the 1980's.

When the USA collapses the same thing will happen as what happened in the USSR. The army will defend the rich and their interests and everything else will be left to rot.

Koch brothers and their ilk want their families to rule America, and don't mind ruling over the ruins of a once great country if that is what it takes.

That why Putin a lesser evil. If they kept Yeltsin types Russians be all dead today.

Americano capitlaists got off on russian suffering in 1990s. Sick
 
Back
Top