Sure. You're banking on Turkey losing power, influence, military strength, etc. as a result of this and other forms of religious extremism. And conversely, you imply that by Turkey not doing the crazy religious thing, they would gain power we don't want them to have. That way of looking at it is putting far too much emphasis on one polarizing factor.
And even if you turn out to be partially prophetic, the sweet spot that where your idea lies is a potentially mythical place where Turkey goes to Islamist shit, but also doesn't become more of a problem for the world. That's not what we see when we look at the world. We see that the broken shit holes are a massive problem. And other radical shit holes, like Saudi Arabia and Iran, are not crumbling or marginalized.
hm
I see it like that, there are roughly 4 possible outcomes:
1. The overall situation in Turkey, when it comes to politics and society, will approximately be the same it was the last couple of years
2. The situation improves, Turkey further embraces liberalism, secularism, individual freedom and human rights. They'll still have a different culture and Islam, which isn't a problem but they'll also be a reliable partner in a close alliance with Western nations and we don't even have to feel bad or guilty about it (opposed to Saudi Arabia etc and to a certain degree opposed to Turkey right now and the last years)
3. Turkey becomes more radical, Islam will be a replacement for a Western legal system, the government and military gains more power, human rights, freedom of speech, secularism, individual freedom etc. are at a low. Turkey's economy is in trouble and they have problems keeping up with the Western world.
4. Turkey becomes more radical, Islam will be a replacement for a Western legal system, the government and military gains more power, human rights, freedom of speech, secularism, individual freedom etc. are at a low. Turkey is doing extremely well, have a strong economy, can spend a lot of money for military and geopolitical interests etc
I think it's absolutely irrational to believe in either 1 or 2, therefore, I prefer 3 over 4. Is this really so fucked or are we just in disagreement over how likely 1 and 2 are?
1 is already over. We're done with this. It's evidently wrong. I got much worse and there are not indicators whatsoever that anybody will reverse it.
2 is what 'we' and especially Europe were working towards for years now. You can't possibly do more than they've done.
TheGreatA already described it very accurately:
Turkey was long the West's "pet project" to create a Westernized, secular, Muslim-majority nation. Tons of money and effort were poured into building up its infrastructure, and sometimes "undemocratic" measures were resorted to, in order to uphold secularism in the country.
It's becoming obvious that the project has failed. It's best to count our losses and move on.
The liberal mentality is to keep throwing money at the problem, hoping it eventually goes away, as living standards improve. But it's plain and obvious that a lack of funding here, isn't the problem. It's the lack of a will.
I know this "give them the right ideas and means and everything will improve" sounds great. This way of thinking has a long history and was promoted by many smart philosophers and it still sounds good in 2017 if a smart and eloquent guy like Sam Harris talks about it on a TV show.
It's not backed up by the history of nations and empires.
What happens when you have a radicalized shithole and you can't make them or want them to be your allies is what we see in today's shitholes in the Arabic world, ISIS & Co.
What happens when a radical nation is prosperous and highly capable and they aren't your allies is we saw with the third Reich, Austrian Empires etc. In other words, in both world wars.