Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed

[bobgeese]

Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows

• The Atlanta Fed updated its rolling look at the U.S. economy, projecting that GDP would grow 5.4 percent in the first quarter.
• If the forecast holds, it would be the strongest quarter since the economic recovery began and would more than double the typical annualized growth during the period.

Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 2 Hours Ago Updated 29 Mins AgoCNBC.com
The economy is on track to put up blockbuster growth numbers in the first quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed.

GDP is expected to surge 5.4 percent to start 2018, the central bank branch estimated in its latest rolling look at how the economy is progressing.

If the forecast holds, it would be the best quarter since the Great Recession ended in 2009. The previous highest was third quarter of 2014, which hit 5.2 percent.


However, the Atlanta Fed's tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past. In particular, the model's sensitivity to the ISM Manufacturing Index has led the gauge astray multiple times, causing growth to be overstated.

The ISM numbers were the principle impetus for the raise in growth projections Thursday.

Real consumer spending jumped from 3.1 percent to 4 percent amid a sharp savings drawdown, and private fixed-investment growth surged from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.

Since 2015, ISM boosts have caused the Atlanta Fed to overstate growth by 0.8 percentage points on average, including 1.9 percent points in the fourth quarter tracking on Nov. 1, according to CNBC calculations.

That comes as jobless claims hover around generational lows and the unemployment rate is at 4.1 percent. Productivity, however, continues to be lackluster, falling 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter against an expected rise of 1 percent.

GDP for the fourth quarter came in at 2.6 percent, a disappointment caused primarily by a decline in inventories and a surge in imports, temporary setbacks expected to reverse in the quarters ahead.

President Donald Trump rode to office on promises of growth that would hit at least 3 percent and run as high as 6 percent.

The Atlanta Fed also was optimistic about the 2017 first quarter, estimating growth at one point to be 3.4 percent, where the final reading came in at 1.2 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/eco...-first-quarter-atlanta-fed-tracker-shows.html


.......


Huge if true.

 

[Exception]

Nice, nice. But how did Obama pull it off?

 

[PureDominance]

Nice, nice. But how did Obama pull it off?

Exactly. Give credit where credit is due. The narrative needs to be maintained that this is still Obama's economy. It will continue to be Obama's economy until the inevitable correction. Then the Real Media will give Trump his due credit.

 

[Trotsky]

Trump's deregulation is owed some credit for this growth. It's growth that isn't necessary and will almost certainly cut back against long-term economic stability, but it's impressive nevertheless.

 

[kpt018]

@bobgeese I'll take the under. Do we have a bet?

 

[KILL KILL]

Although this is good, I don't think TS read the article.

It states that there are reliability issues with the model, causing it to be off by as much as 2% in Q4.

So, let's assume that it's 2% shy again, which would put it at 3.4%. Although good, not particularly threadworthy.

 

[kpt018]

Although this is good, I don't think TS read the article.

It states that there are reliability issues with the model, causing it to be off by as much as 2% in Q4.

So, let's assume that it's 2% shy again, which would put it at 3.4%. Although good, not particularly threadworthy.

That's so bad it's useless.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows

• The Atlanta Fed updated its rolling look at the U.S. economy, projecting that GDP would grow 5.4 percent in the first quarter.
• If the forecast holds, it would be the strongest quarter since the economic recovery began and would more than double the typical annualized growth during the period.

Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 2 Hours Ago Updated 29 Mins AgoCNBC.com
The economy is on track to put up blockbuster growth numbers in the first quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed.

GDP is expected to surge 5.4 percent to start 2018, the central bank branch estimated in its latest rolling look at how the economy is progressing.

If the forecast holds, it would be the best quarter since the Great Recession ended in 2009. The previous highest was third quarter of 2014, which hit 5.2 percent.


However, the Atlanta Fed's tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past. In particular, the model's sensitivity to the ISM Manufacturing Index has led the gauge astray multiple times, causing growth to be overstated.

The ISM numbers were the principle impetus for the raise in growth projections Thursday.

Real consumer spending jumped from 3.1 percent to 4 percent amid a sharp savings drawdown, and private fixed-investment growth surged from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.

Since 2015, ISM boosts have caused the Atlanta Fed to overstate growth by 0.8 percentage points on average, including 1.9 percent points in the fourth quarter tracking on Nov. 1, according to CNBC calculations.

That comes as jobless claims hover around generational lows and the unemployment rate is at 4.1 percent. Productivity, however, continues to be lackluster, falling 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter against an expected rise of 1 percent.

GDP for the fourth quarter came in at 2.6 percent, a disappointment caused primarily by a decline in inventories and a surge in imports, temporary setbacks expected to reverse in the quarters ahead.

President Donald Trump rode to office on promises of growth that would hit at least 3 percent and run as high as 6 percent.

The Atlanta Fed also was optimistic about the 2017 first quarter, estimating growth at one point to be 3.4 percent, where the final reading came in at 1.2 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/eco...-first-quarter-atlanta-fed-tracker-shows.html


.......


Huge if true.

Of course that is what they are saying. They are about to raise interest rates, and they know they are going to be lucky to be at 1.5% after they do.

Mark my words. 6 months after they raise interest rates, you will see all this growth go stagnant.

Enjoy Obama and the banksters economy, while you can. We will soon be back to the reality, that without unlimited credit, we dont have the demand to grow our economy, because all the money is going to the rich.

 

[uncommon]

Although this is good, I don't think TS read the article.

It states that there are reliability issues with the model, causing it to be off by as much as 2% in Q4.

So, let's assume that it's 2% shy again, which would put it at 3.4%. Although good, not particularly threadworthy.

former fed chair ben early 2017: "3 percent a long shot"



former fed chair greenspan 2017: we cannot hit over 3 percent without cutting entitlements

trump 1 month ago: 4 5 & 6percent gdp possible



maga > fed?

 

[KILL KILL]

former fed chair ben early 2017: "3 percent a long shot"



former fed chair greenspan 2017: we cannot hit over 3 percent without cutting entitlements

trump 1 month ago: 4 5 & 6percent gdp possible



maga > fed?

I'm pretty sure they're referring to annual growth. The article is referring to quarterly from a source that has been atrociously inaccurate lol.

 

[panamaican]

The article itself says that this forecaster has been grossly wrong multiple times in the past.

How much should I rely on this instead of just waiting for the growth data to actually come out? I'll go with "not at all".

 

[HomerThompson]

The article itself says that this forecaster has been grossly wrong multiple times in the past.

How much should I rely on this instead of just waiting for the growth data to actually come out? I'll go with "not at all".

But doesn't it make you feel good? Like, so good you want to open several new factories, and increase wages across the board?

MMMMMMAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGAAAAAAAAAAAA

 

[Jopious Extronimous]

Damn bob. You couldn't even just read the daily talking points and suggest edits at the daily meeting before the street team went to work? Maybe just edit this part out next time:

However, the Atlanta Fed's tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past. In particular, the model's sensitivity to the ISM Manufacturing Index has led the gauge astray multiple times, causing growth to be overstated.

The ISM numbers were the principle impetus for the raise in growth projections Thursday.

 

[Prefect]

Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows

• The Atlanta Fed updated its rolling look at the U.S. economy, projecting that GDP would grow 5.4 percent in the first quarter.
• If the forecast holds, it would be the strongest quarter since the economic recovery began and would more than double the typical annualized growth during the period.

Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 2 Hours Ago Updated 29 Mins AgoCNBC.com
The economy is on track to put up blockbuster growth numbers in the first quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed.

GDP is expected to surge 5.4 percent to start 2018, the central bank branch estimated in its latest rolling look at how the economy is progressing.

If the forecast holds, it would be the best quarter since the Great Recession ended in 2009. The previous highest was third quarter of 2014, which hit 5.2 percent.


However, the Atlanta Fed's tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past. In particular, the model's sensitivity to the ISM Manufacturing Index has led the gauge astray multiple times, causing growth to be overstated.

The ISM numbers were the principle impetus for the raise in growth projections Thursday.

Real consumer spending jumped from 3.1 percent to 4 percent amid a sharp savings drawdown, and private fixed-investment growth surged from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.

Since 2015, ISM boosts have caused the Atlanta Fed to overstate growth by 0.8 percentage points on average, including 1.9 percent points in the fourth quarter tracking on Nov. 1, according to CNBC calculations.

That comes as jobless claims hover around generational lows and the unemployment rate is at 4.1 percent. Productivity, however, continues to be lackluster, falling 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter against an expected rise of 1 percent.

GDP for the fourth quarter came in at 2.6 percent, a disappointment caused primarily by a decline in inventories and a surge in imports, temporary setbacks expected to reverse in the quarters ahead.

President Donald Trump rode to office on promises of growth that would hit at least 3 percent and run as high as 6 percent.

The Atlanta Fed also was optimistic about the 2017 first quarter, estimating growth at one point to be 3.4 percent, where the final reading came in at 1.2 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/eco...-first-quarter-atlanta-fed-tracker-shows.html


.......


Huge if true.

How much tax revenue did we give back to achieve this bump? 5.4 percent is not achievable over the long term. Just using the rule of 72, that would mean that the economy would be doubling ever 13.3 years. At 3% which is ambitious, that would be the economy doubling every 24 years. If 5.4 is real, that is good news but it probably is just a short term bump due to tax incentives and speculation. Unless, you are china or some other developing country growth rates that are hard and unlikely.

 

[bobgeese]

Damn bob. You couldn't even just read the daily talking points and suggest edits at the daily meeting before the street team went to work? Maybe just edit this part out next time:

I think I was fair in the OP to state huge if true.

 

[Beechwood]

Nice to see but I'd guess the ending result will be lower than the beginning prediction. The Atlanta fed starts out high with their quarter predictions. That is the highest start I've seen. Over time the prediction will likely drop though.

 

[Seano]

Although this is good, I don't think TS read the article.

It states that there are reliability issues with the model, causing it to be off by as much as 2% in Q4.

So, let's assume that it's 2% shy again, which would put it at 3.4%. Although good, not particularly threadworthy.

Lets just assume the worst case scenario, eh?

 

[Jopious Extronimous]

I think I was fair in the OP to state huge if true.

No, your thread title and the clear intent of this thread are still fueled by a hackish allegiance that would lead a guy to think you spend your days searching the internet for things to praise Trump for. Diligent in your efforts you only forget one thing.... to read the articles you post.

Next time try "garbage if false.... which it likely is".

 

[Rod1]

Of course that is what they are saying. They are about to raise interest rates, and they know they are going to be lucky to be at 1.5% after they do.

Mark my words. 6 months after they raise interest rates, you will see all this growth go stagnant.

Enjoy Obama and the banksters economy, while you can. We will soon be back to the reality, that without unlimited credit, we dont have the demand to grow our economy, because all the money is going to the rich.

Seems that you are finally opening your eyes.

 

[KILL KILL]

Lets just assume the worst case scenario, eh?

Im hoping for the best, but using an economic model that has been shown to be completely inaccurate, should be taken with a grain of salt.