Economists agree: Trump, not Obama, gets credit for economy

So only the current president has any impact on the economy? I guess none of their decisions have long term impact at all on the economy. Well then, I guess I'm now ready to get on board with jerking Trump off, unless the market slides.
 
Darkballs said:
Show me, any data that demonstrates a change in the economic trend since trump took office. Show me any legislation or policy that connects, in any way, even a vague ass way, to that trend.

If the only thing you have are "a bunch of people say they are impressed with...", you can stop replying. No one is impressed with your appeals to authority.
Click to expand...
Below are stats for every month of the past decade or so of unemployment, labour force participation rate and labour force.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

Obama:
During Obama's term, unemployment went from 7.8 (Jan 2009) to 4.8 (Jan 2017).
During Obama's term, LFPR went from 65.7 (Jan 2009) to 62.9 (Jan 2017)
During Obama's term labour force went from 154.2m (Jan 2009) to 159.7m (Jan 2017)

Labour force in 2009 = 65.7% of 154.2m = 101.3m
Labour force in 2017 = 62.9% of 159.7m = 100.45m
Loss of total labour force between 2009 and 2017 = 0.9m
Unemployment dropped 3%, 3% of original labour force (154.2) = 4.6m

Net gain of jobs = 4.6 - 0.9 = 3.7m, 3.7 / 154.2 = 2.4%. 2.4% real job growth over 8 years

Trump:
During Trump's term, unemployment went from 4.8 (Jan 2017) to 4.1 (Dec 2017).
During Trump's term, LFPR went from 62.9 (Jan 2017) to 62.7 (Dec 2017)
During Trump's term, labour force went from 159.7m (Jan 2017) to 160.6m (Dec 2017)

Labour force in Jan 2017 = 62.9% of 159.7m = 100.45m
Labour force in Dec 2017 = 62.7% of 160.6m = 100.7m
Gain of labour force in 2017 = 0.25m jobs
Unemployment dropped 0.7%, 0.7% of original labour force (159.7) = 1.12m

Net gain of jobs = 1.12 + 0.25 = 1.37m over 1 year. 1.37 / 159.7 = 0.85%

Trump => 0.85% growth in real job growth over (slightly less than) 1 year
Obama => 2.4% growth over 8 years, 0.3% average growth per year

This is following a slow performing last year for Obama in these statistics, so you can't really say he inherited an upward trend from Obama.
 
Jack V Savage said:
The 1997 "Balanced Budget Act" was just about taking credit for a surplus that was inevitable by that time. If you want to give "credit" (balanced budgets aren't necessarily good) to Republicans rather than Clinton, Bush 41 deserves a bigger share. The 1990 deficit-reduction deal was an important part of getting there, as was the 1993 budget (and note that Republicans wanted to take the opportunity of pending surpluses to cut taxes, while Clinton wanted the surpluses).
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't really think surpluses are good. You are taking money out of the economy which isn't being used.

I was just playing politics with my good bud.
 
Yeah, duh.

But Obama led the economy on an upward tilt for 8 years from the worst its been since GD.

Trump is still a disgrace, and by defending him, you're still playing a partisan game.
 
Scheme said:
Below are stats for every month of the past decade or so of unemployment, labour force participation rate and labour force.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

Obama:
During Obama's term, unemployment went from 7.8 (Jan 2009) to 4.8 (Jan 2017).
During Obama's term, LFPR went from 65.7 (Jan 2009) to 62.9 (Jan 2017)
During Obama's term labour force went from 154.2m (Jan 2009) to 159.7m (Jan 2017)

Labour force in 2009 = 65.7% of 154.2m = 101.3m
Labour force in 2017 = 62.9% of 159.7m = 100.45m
Loss of total labour force between 2009 and 2017 = 0.9m
Unemployment dropped 3%, 3% of original labour force (154.2) = 4.6m

Net gain of jobs = 4.6 - 0.9 = 3.7m, 3.7 / 154.2 = 2.4%. 2.4% real job growth over 8 years

Trump:
During Trump's term, unemployment went from 4.8 (Jan 2017) to 4.1 (Dec 2017).
During Trump's term, LFPR went from 62.9 (Jan 2017) to 62.7 (Dec 2017)
During Trump's term, labour force went from 159.7m (Jan 2017) to 160.6m (Dec 2017)

Labour force in Jan 2017 = 62.9% of 159.7m = 100.45m
Labour force in Dec 2017 = 62.7% of 160.6m = 100.7m
Gain of labour force in 2017 = 0.25m jobs
Unemployment dropped 0.7%, 0.7% of original labour force (159.7) = 1.12m

Net gain of jobs = 1.12 + 0.25 = 1.37m over 1 year. 1.37 / 159.7 = 0.85%

Trump => 0.85% growth in real job growth over (slightly less than) 1 year
Obama => 2.4% growth over 8 years, 0.3% average growth per year

This is following a slow performing last year for Obama in these statistics, so you can't really say he inherited an upward trend from Obama.
Click to expand...

Is any publication regurgitating your statistics?

If so, Who?

If not, why not?
 
75 consecutive months of job growth ....cough,cough.................
get back to us in 3 more years
 
PolishHeadlock said:
Is any publication regurgitating your statistics?

If so, Who?

If not, why not?
Click to expand...
I don't know, I've seen a couple acknowledging Trump having a great economic year, people are talking about the stock market booming, etc. The numbers are there and can easily be examined.

But publications these days would much rather concentrate on Trump saying shithole than looking at the economy, that much seems pretty evident.

curryjunkie said:
75 consecutive months of job growth ....cough,cough.................
get back to us in 3 more years
Click to expand...
See post #63
 
SBJJ said:
I think you are not understanding labor participation
Click to expand...

You can think that but that's why asked the question.

Historically we've always looked at unemployment and not labor participation.

Why are we changing perception now?

Should we change perception?

How accurate is that perception?

Which rate more accurately tracks variables in the market?
 
Viva said:
So people who study economics and their trends are invalidated because "muh appeal to authority"? Dude that's such a weak approach. I'm not saying economists are 100% right, however when an overwhelming majority point to Trump's tax plan being a specific factor is bolstering our economic growth, I think it's safe to say there's certainly some correlation there.
Click to expand...

Trumps tax plan (and to be fair, we should call it the Paul Ryan church of Ayn Rand tax play that trump doesn't understand at all but is willing to go along with so long as he can claim a win), has been in effect for a whopping 2 1/2 weeks. Are you going to try and contribute a 4 year trend to that? If so how?

This isn't rocket science. I will ask for the 4th time, what policy in particular can you contribute the current economy (for good, or bad) to trump?
 
Scheme said:
I don't know, I've seen a couple acknowledging Trump having a great economic year, people are talking about the stock market booming, etc. The numbers are there and can easily be examined.

But publications these days would much rather concentrate on Trump saying shithole than looking at the economy, that much seems pretty evident.


See post #63
Click to expand...

So you're just doing a data dump without any real analysis?
 
PolishHeadlock said:
You can think that but that's why asked the question.

Historically we've always looked at unemployment and not labor participation.

Why are we changing perception now?

Should we change perception?

How accurate is that perception?

Which rate more accurately tracks variables in the market?
Click to expand...

Depends if you want to know true employment/unemployment.
 
Overtures said:
Yeah, duh.

But Obama led the economy on an upward tilt for 8 years from the worst its been since GD.

Trump is still a disgrace, and by defending him, you're still playing a partisan game.
Click to expand...

Any sources to back up those claims? I'm not buying the notion that Obama established the economic growth we've seen the past few months.

And the first portion of your post proves you are also playing a partisan game.

So what's your point?
 
SBJJ said:
Depends if you want to know true employment/unemployment.
Click to expand...

Should you count the retired against your employment rate?

What about students?

How about the physically and or mentally unable?
 
PolishHeadlock said:
You can think that but that's why asked the question.

Historically we've always looked at unemployment and not labor participation.

Why are we changing perception now?

Should we change perception?

How accurate is that perception?

Which rate more accurately tracks variables in the market?
Click to expand...
Unemployment rate will go down if someone decides to leave the labour force, i.e., if you lost your job, unemployment rate would go up. If you decided, fuck working, I'm just going to sit around and leech off the government, unemployment rate would go down, because you are technically no longer in the work force (actively looking for a job). Therefore, if everyone who was unemployed and looking for a job decided to just say fuck it and sit on their asses all day, the unemployment rate would be 0%. Or if you take in some refugees who aren't considered actively looking for a job, unemployment rate will stay the same.
 
Viva said:
Any sources to back up those claims? I'm not buying the notion that Obama established the economic growth we've seen the past few months.

And the first portion of your post proves you are also playing a partisan game.

So what's your point?
Click to expand...

Trump's presidency is related to the economic boom, yes.

Obama's policies led to an 8 year upward tilt.

Everyone knows Trump blows as a human being.

What's your point?
 
SBJJ said:
So you are not arguing the numbers. You are just arguing if they should be used
Click to expand...

It's how we judge the numbers.

We have always used unemployment for a good reason. For the most part people that are able to work and aren't retired or preworkforce are going to be looking for work
 
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