I'm not sure what kind of clearing we're looking for. We already know he inappropriately asked Comey to stop investigating and then fired him when he continued, right? He's pretty much said that publicly. I don't see how he gets out of that, and that seems impeachable to me. I think most people are expecting more, though I don't have any opinion about that. I've said that I think it's possible that he's just so stupid he didn't know what was going on. If an investigation turns that up, I have no problem accepting it. Generally, I'd say that I have little reason at this point to doubt that the investigation will be run professionally and fairly, and I'm highly unlikely to change that view. On the other hand, I have little confidence in Congress to do the right thing regardless of what the investigation turns up. To compare it to the infinitely milder Clinton situation, I wouldn't be one of those nuts saying that the FBI just let her get away with something, but if the FBI recommending an indictment and the DOJ didn't move forward, people would be justified in seeing that as an issue. Another note on all this: It's not necessarily criminal charges that we're even talking about. The president can fire the FBI director for any reason, for example. The law gives the president a lot of leeway, but also gives Congress the responsibility and means to rein in a corrupt executive.
We know he inappropriately asked Comey to stop the investigation? So far, I've seen a newspaper that credits an unnamed source who was supposedly reading off a memo that no one else has seen. That's not going to hold up. Now we have Trump denying it (of course) and a previous congressional testimony from Comey saying that it would be a big deal if someone tried to interfere with an investigation yet didn't bring this to the attention of the DOJ for several months. You're welcome to tag a few of the lawyers in here, but this doesn't seem like an open and shut case to me. I'll continue to hold out for more details.
Is it your belief that Comey didn't write the memo or do you think he lied in it? Several elite organizations have sources that claim to have seen it. I'd be willing to take this one to the bet thread if you want.
Right now, what we know for certain is that there is more than likely a memo that was read in part by a third party to a reporter without the context or opinions of the writer. That's a far cry from impeachment level evidence. A subpoena for the memo in its full context and a testimony from Comey should shed some more light on things. If I had to hang my hat on something, my gut tells me that it doesnt turn into anything. It also won't surprise me in the least if it turns out Trump went full retard and gave Comey a wink and a nudge while asking him to let the whole thing go. Still, I think a good defense lawyer would have a go at the wording of the memo, Comey's delay in reporting, and Comey's previous congressional testimony and make it a tough fight. That is, until Trump goes on Twitter and screws the whole thing up. I don't really care much for betting, nor am I so firmly in Trump's corner that I care enough to assign or receive some ridiculous av, but there's money to be made on the gambling sites if you think it's a sure thing. Or if you really just want to get one over on me, we can do some vcash or something.
OK, so would evidence that the memo exists and says what people who have seen it say it says change your mind here? To my thinking, the suggestion that multiple media sources are fabricating this or misrepresenting the level of certainty of the case is wildly improbable. To the point that I feel very comfortable describing the existence of the memo as a known fact.
I'm holding at 80% for Trump to finish his first term. Nothing in the last few days has brought him closer to impeachment, imo. Just the 5% hit from firing Comey.
80% huh? I think I'm at 50/50. Because of the special prosecutor, some other items were overlooked. “House majority leader told colleagues last year: ‘I think Putin pays’ Trump” “Flynn stopped military plan Turkey opposed — after being paid as its agent” “Trump Team Knew Flynn Was Under Investigation Before He Came to White House" “Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians — sources”
I agree those are all significant in terms of demonstrating what a shit and complicit administration this is. But on the other hand, we already knew all of that (except the tape, and even that is ambiguous), and I've been factoring it in all along. It's going to take a lie under oath or something else that's absolutely clear-cut, but Trump will not go under oath. Direct cash payments from the Russian government might not even get him impeached, but that would be the point where I go 50/50. I don't expect that we'll have any confirmation of something that big. Given a Dem congress, I would evaluate it differently of course.
id take him, but if we had to Hilary? Fucking kiss my ass, honestly im done with trump an his moronic supporters, i dont give a fuck anymore
Think of the odds of Flynn doing time. Probably reasonably close to 50/50, but more like 65/35 for no jail. The odds of Trump being impeached almost can't be bigger than Flynn doing time.
Oh...Flynn is going down. I'd wager almost certainly Manafort as well. I think I may agree with Tony Schwartz, who wrote Art Of The Deal. He feels eventually Trump will resign. He said All Trump cares about is winning or losing, there is nothing else to the man. That the humiliation of his unpopularity must be driving him nuts. That he wants to figure a way out, as he always does, in some demented way to turn a loss into a victory, by whatever excuse he'll make. We'll see.
Mueller can and almost certainly will require that Trump be deposed. That deposition will start with an oath to provide truthful testimony. Hello perjury, obstruction of justice and abuse of power.
It's possible he resigns, but in that case I would expect he'd rather do the 4 and declare victory. It's gonna be a long investigation though lol.
From my understanding, he could refuse to testify under oath and be found in contempt, but that doesn't seem like it would go anywhere.
As miserable as he is already? It is very, very clear that he hates what the job actually consists of. He misses his old life and it's only been five months! There were rumors that he initially hoped he could be a sort of figurehead and Mike Pence and cabinet officials could do the heavy lifting. 4 years...for him? Doubtful.
Which could lead to him looking more guilty, being compelled and then giving Congress reason to look at obstruction of justice if he still refused. He's also in danger of costing the GOP seats in the midterms, further endangering his presidency.
