Ok.
I guess we'll agree to disagree and just watch.
I don't even want to come back here to say I told you so, because I hope I'm wrong.
Worth mentioning that the Australian port was not acquired using a debt trap.
This was simple old fashioned incompetence, greased by a few brown envelopes.
The Duterte administration is being urged by several lawmakers to take its cue from Malaysia’s decision to withdraw from China-sponsored projects, saying it should prevent the Philippines from falling into a debt trap.
Sen. Leila de Lima, who chairs the Senate committee on social justice, welfare and rural development, said the government should be wary of these suspicious Chinese loans and look at the long-term repercussions of all the planned infrastructure projects and investments into the country that are funded by China.
“The Philippine government must take its cue from Prime Minister Mahathir who decided to cancel three China-backed projects amounting to US$22-billion to avoid his country from falling into a debt trap,” de Lima said in her latest statement.
“We need to take heed before it’s too late,” the detained senator stressed.
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad earlier confirmed that three China-backed projects would be cancelled until Malaysia can find a way to pay its debts.
The projects include a railway connecting Malaysia’s east coast to southern Thailand and Kuala Lumpur, and two gas pipelines.
De Lima emphasized that entering into loan agreements, especially those that are not obtained through competitive procurement, “can put not only our country in dire debt and cripple our economy, but also undermine our sovereignty and national security.”
Sen. Joseph Victor “JV” Ejercito echoed de Lima’s sentiments, saying that from the start, he is already apprehensive on China being friendly and offering its assistance to the Philippine government to finance and undertake big infrastructure projects.
“For sure it will have strings attached. And knowing China, it will come at a heavy price too.” Ejercito said when also sought for comment.
“It is business for them and I don’t think they are really sincere to help,” he said.
Ejercito also frowned at China’s continuous efforts to build military infrastructure on disputed islands in the West Philippine Sea.
“Ginigisa tayo sa sariling mantika. Friendly kunwari pero inaagaw naman ang territoryo ng Pilipinas,” he said.
“I would trust Japan more than China. There is sincerity in their offer of assistance,” Ejercito further said.
Resolutions have been filed at the Senate seeking an inquiry into the various investment deals entered into by the Duterte administration with China.
Senator Sherwin Gatchalian thumbed down proposals for the Philippines to follow the Malaysian government’s move and cancel its own big-ticket infrastructure deals with China.
Gatchalian said it would be premature for the government to cancel its own infrastructure projects with China simply because the Malaysian government has cancelled their own deals with Beijing.
“At this point, we do not know the details of the subject Malaysian-Chinese infrastructure deals,” Gatchalian pointed out.
But ultimately, the Philippine government should decide on its own whether or not to push through with the pending big-ticket infrastructure projects.
“Our government’s decision should be based on an objective assessment of the pros and cons of the deal,” he said.
“The decisions of regional allies concerning their own projects should not be a factor,” he added.
Besides, he said the country has enough mechanisms in place to avert any China-backed projects that may push the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
“We must also note that our country has processes in place to prevent the Philippines from falling into a debt trap,” he said.
“The Congress, the Monetary Board, the DBCC (Development Budget Coordination Committee) and other institutions are continuously exercising their respective prudential mandates to ensure that the government abides by responsible and sustainable fiscal policies,” Gatchalian stressed.
Gatchalian’s views on the matter echoed that of Sen. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III who also earlier rejected proposals for the government to copy Malaysia’s move.
“No two countries are 100-percent similarly situated. Let us decide for ourselves what best to do given our own situation and our own analysis,” Pimentel said.
“We should not blindly copy what other countries are doing,” he said.
Earlier, Senators Leila de Lima and Joseph Victor “JV” Ejercito urged the Duterte administration to emulate Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who withdrew from three China-backed projects that cost a total of P22-billion to avoid falling into a debt trap.
“Entering into loan agreements, especially those that are not obtained through competitive procurement, can put our country not only in dire debt and cripple our economy, but also undermine our sovereignty and national security,” De Lima had said.
Imran Khan strikes me as an interesting character, his win looking like another in the line of populist victories across the globe. Been thinking about making a thread on him, something about him being the Pakistani Trump due to his populism, but I have to admit I'm not that well informed on him or Pakistani politics in general.Up next: Pakistan.
Pakistan has received 12 bailouts from the International Monetary Fund since the late 1980s as a result of debt blowouts and balance-of-payment imbalances.
Now, the country’s 13th bailout from the IMF—expected to be the largest so far—is on the horizon. And China is a key player as former cricket star Imran Khan of Pakistan’s PTI party is set to become prime minister next week.
Despite some efforts to reform and liberalize its economy, Pakistan remains mired in chronic underdevelopment. According to the Index of Economic Freedom, the Pakistani economy is “mostly unfree,” ranking 131st out of 180 economies scored in the 2018 edition.
Excessive state involvement in the economy, an inefficient regulatory framework, and lingering corruption have systematically inhibited private business formation and expansion. Large budget deficits are chronic, with tax collection scandalously low.
Pakistan’s external debt burden has mounted to an unsustainable level, thus the likelihood of another IMF bailout.
What makes this latest rescue distinctive from previous ones is the China factor.
Pakistan has become overly dependent on billions of dollars in Chinese loans. It has run up a huge import tab bringing in construction equipment and building materials as part of a Chinese-funded master plan to revamp ports, roads, and railways.
That $62 billion plan, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has been touted as a long-term, strategic economic partnership that supposedly will increase trade and investment between the two countries.
CPEC is a classic example of China’s aggressive geopolitical outreach through its Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, aptly dubbed “debt-trap diplomacy” by the editors of National Review:
The heart of the BRI is debt-trap diplomacy: China oversells the benefits of these infrastructure projects, offers credit for them on onerous terms, and, when the bill comes due and its debtors aren’t able to pay, demands control over the infrastructure and influence in the region to compensate.
The attempt to turn these countries into satellite states via the strategic construction of infrastructure is pure geopolitics. China has eyed a westward turn for years, and its desire to advance in Southeast Asia is no secret.
Not surprisingly, the State Bank of Pakistan reported that Pakistan’s external debt has soared to a record $91.8 billion, an increase of nearly $31 billion in the past four years and nine months.
In a recent study, the IMF cited the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a factor in Pakistan’s elevated current-account deficit and rising external debt-service obligations.
In response to the looming bailout, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted July 30: “There’s no rationale for IMF tax dollars, and associated with that American dollars that are part of the IMF funding, for those to go to bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself.”
In the bigger picture, however, Pakistan’s incoming government must take steps to revive the nation’s economy.
It has been politically expedient for the government to blame this lack of economic progress entirely on Pakistan’s difficult security situation. In fact, the lack of sustained reforms in large part has hindered growth.
This is precisely what Khan’s new government must address.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2018/08/08/is-pakistan-about-to-be-caught-in-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy/
China's investment strategy of throwing money at developing countries appears to have hit a snag in the Republic of Congo as the central African nation is seeking an IMF bailout.
While the funding it provided to Congo wasn't part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which China was promoting this week, it serves as a cautionary tale of the trouble Beijing could face with its plan for massive investments in maritime, road and rail projects across 65 countries from Asia to Europe and Africa.
When the plunge of global oil prices in 2014 blew a hole in the Congolese government's finances, it was China that stepped in to help.
But despite the recovery of oil prices, the country, also known as Congo-Brazzaville, has had trouble getting back on top of its finances and has asked the International Monetary Fund for help.
The IMF places conditions on its loans to force governments to take measures to boost their finances. In addition, as the IMF can only lend if it judges that a country's debt load is sustainable, a bailout may be accompanied by a restructuring of government debt.
"It's certainly the first time China has found itself confronted with this kind of situation," said a specialist in relations between China and Africa who asked her name not be used as the discussions with IMF were still underway.
"The Republic of Congo is seeking IMF protection in order to avoid a possible default on its payments," she added.
"China, which holds more than a third of its foreign debt, is not really comfortable with that."
- China lending full-tilt -
Julien Marcilly, chief economist at Coface, a firm that provides payment insurance for French companies, said that China "went full-tilt on lending in recent years, often to countries which produce and export raw materials, in particular oil."
It is only now that "Beijing is beginning to realise that problems can build up", in particular after Venezuela defaulted.
The situation is all the more worrying as the Republic of Congo in 2005 was one of the countries that benefited from an international debt relief initiative for the world's poorest countries.
Its foreign debt was bought down from 119 percent of annual economic output to just 33 percent.
But like other oil-producing nations, Congo-Brazzaville took a beating from the 2014 plunge in oil prices.
"It was an expected and very brutal drop in prices, which was ironically linked to a slowdown in China," noted Marcilly.
The drop in oil prices meant the nation's economic output dropped by 50 percent. As a consequence, its debt as a percentage of GDP soared to 110 percent in 2017.
About one-third of the country's debt is in Chinese hands, or about $2 billion, said the specialist in relations between China and Africa.
The Congolese government reached an agreement with IMF negotiators a year ago, but the terms need to be approved by the IMF's governing board.
One year later, the deal has yet to be approved.
A French source confirmed that the IMF programme is contingent on Congo-Brazzaville's debt becoming sustainable, which means that a deal has to be reached with China on cutting the amount owed or pushing back payments.
However it would be unusual for Beijing to do this. When Sri Lanka was unable to repay its loans it was forced to turn over a deep-sea port to China for 99 years.
The IMF and China both declined to comment when contacted by AFP.
Give China some more time and they'll be doing the same if not worse. They get a little bit of power and they're already trying to claim the south china sea as their own because it has China in its name.
If we didn't bomb the shit out of other countries maybe they'd be more willing to partner up with us. To them China is the lesser of two evils.
The Chinese will ensure that the puppet government they installed won't collapse they will use the threat of military force against coup plotters or against external interference just like what they did with Maldives.
Former Maldivian President Mohammed Nasheed has clashed with his country's Chinese envoy over Male's "alarming levels" of Chinese debt, which stands at $3.4 billion, even as India has regained ground in the strategically important Indian Ocean atoll nation with the exit of pro-Beijing former president Abdulla Yameen.
In a story being played out in other countries too, including African nations, where China has a massive presence in the infrastructure sector, Nasheed, who is now Parliament speaker and is close to India, said that Maldives owes China $3.4 billion as repayment for loans for projects undertaken during Yameen's rule.
Speaking at a think tank meeting last week, Nasheed said that the cost of Chinese projects was extremely high and that from 2020 onwards 15 per cent of Male's budget will have to be spent on paying back the debt owed to various Chinese companies.
"They came in; they did the work and sent us the bill. So it's not the loan interest rates as such but the costing itself. They over-invoiced us and charged us for that and now we have to repay the interest rate and the principal amount," Nasheed was quoted as saying.
He said the present Ibrahim Solih government was working on paying back the cost as well as the interest, according to Maldivian media reports.
"I can't see how our development can be rapid enough to have the amount of savings to re-pay China," he said, adding that as a solution, Maldives would renegotiate the payment structure with China.
Nasheed also said that India's GMR Group had proposed to finance the Sinamale' Bridge project (China-Maldives Friendship bridge) for $77 million, while the China Communication and Contracting Company (CCCC) presented a higher price. He said Yameen's government gave the contract to the Chinese company, due to which Maldives now owes $300 million to CCCC.
Responding to Nasheed on Saturday, the Chinese Ambassador Zhang Lizhong in a series of Twitter posts said that the cost of the bridge project was $200 million, of which 57.5 per cent was funded by a Chinese grant aid.
He said that the Maldivian government had to pay back $100 million only, which was half of the project cost, spread over a 20 year period after completing a five-year grace period. Zhang said the total amount owed by Maldives to China was $1.529 billion, which included $872 million in concessional loans and $657 million in preferential loans up to November last year.
In response, Nasheed tweeted: "Maldives total foreign debt includes the active sovereign guaranteed debt and not just government to government loans. The extent of Maldives sovereign guarantees to Chinese banks are at potentially alarming levels. We must all be mindful for the future. @AmbassadorZhang."
Retorting to Nasheed's tweet, Zhang asked him to refrain from spreading "continuous unverified and misleading information to the public", which could harm bilateral ties.
Before President Solih took office in November last year, most of the infrastructure projects had been given to China by the Yameen government, leaving the nation in massive debt.
Maldivian Finance Minister Ibrahim Ameer had earlier said: "We believe that most of these projects are at inflated prices, and so we are looking at them."
One of the projects awarded to China was a hospital in Male that had run up a cost of $140 million, much more than a rival offer of $54 million, that had been originally made, Ameer said.
As part of its string of pearls encirclement of India, which China pitched as the Belt and Road connectivity corridor project, Beijing has built ports, bridges and highways in India's neighbours, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
After Yameen's ouster, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had attended President Solih's inauguration and said that India stood ready to help Maldives tide over its financial problems.
Modi visited Maldives in June - his first trip to a foreign country after taking over as prime minister for the second term - signalling the close cooperation between the two nations.
During the visit, the two countries agreed to start a regular passenger-cum-cargo ferry service between Kochi in Kerala and Kulhudhuffushi and Male in the Maldives.
Maldives is also reported to be planning to scrap an agreement with China to build an Indian Ocean observatory in Makunudhoo, which would have given Beijing access to a critical space in the Indian Ocean both from the commercial shipping and strategic point of view.
President Solih had also made India his first official stop abroad.
Signalling Male's strategic importance, India has allocated Rs 576 crore to Maldives for development aid in the 2019-20 budget, higher than the Rs 440 crore allocated in the last budget.
In Sri Lanka too, where Beijing has expanded its presence, Colombo handed over its southern port of Hambantota to the Chinese on a 99-year lease, after it failed to repay its debts.
According to former diplomat Sheel Kant Sharma: "China's policies are very different from what we normally understand by economic cooperation and trade relations, in the sense that when we (India) do these things, there is no strategic component. But in the case of China, these things are very integral to their strategic vision, and even the Chinese companies are part of the government, or are very closely connected with the government."
Sharma, who was former Secretary General of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), told IANS: "In bilateral economic relations, China's whole attitude is to buy influence, and it is not because of altruistic reasons. They have never been like that ever. And this is natural when they come to Maldives, where the speciality is they have hundreds of small islands spread into the Indian Ocean.
"And if China can buy off some of the islands, they don't have to create artificial islands like they are doing in the South China Sea. So they have a strategic interest in the Indian Ocean, as some of the trade sea routes straddle this area. So Chinese are doing everything in the manner of an imperial power, and it is very difficult to segregate them from their normal economic activity," he said.