What exactly would lead anyone to believe that DC wins this? Jones won a clear decision the first time around.
DC's two toughest fights in his entire career have been against Gus and Jones, both tall rangy fighters with a significant reach advantage.
What exactly has changed? DC has been consistent but there are no signs of him improving. If anything, the fact that he barely made weight in his last fight and is closing in on 40 lead me to believe that he is on the downside of his career. His wins have been impressive and by any definition he is the second best LHW of all time but the question here will be what shape is Jones in?
In the fight against OSP he won all 5 rounds and cruised to a fairly easy decision. He didn't look particularly interested in finishing OSP and really only utilized his takedowns (which he landed with minimal effort) towards the end of the fight. It may very well have been his desire to get some ring time that led him to keep things at a slow pace.
Other than his fight with Gus, Jones has never come close to losing a fight.
All the focus on his out of ring antics misses the point that they do not seem to impact him in the ring (with the exception of his fight with Gus where he indicated he did not train and mostly partied...).
Jones is 29, undefeated, and has beaten DC in the past and frankly is heavily in DC's head. There is huge pressure on DC to win a fight against Jones. If Jones loses, it's a setback but given his youth and talent, he would easily rise to the top again (look at GSP's losses as an example). If DC loses to Jones, not only does he lose the title, but he loses his chance to not avenge his only defeat but to secure his legacy as the greatest LHW of all time.
That is enormous pressure on a guy closing in on 40 at the tail end of his career.
And as an FYI despite not being a fan of DC I hope he wins. That if nothing else would motivate Jones to sort his shit out.