Picks him apart for sure for a round or two but the fact is Conor is prone to fatigue and Tony is known for pushing the pace and fighting aggressively deep into a bout.
The central question of the fight is can Conor finish Tony within the first eight minutes of the fight. He has great timing, good power, great instincts. If he catches Tony with the right shots, maybe he drops him and puts him away. But if he can't do it, he is going to have a hell of a time sustaining his efforts into the championship rounds when Tony is coming after him, putting gloves on him continually.
If Tony was more chinny, it would be an easier fight to predict for conor. But he's got awesome recovery and has never been put away by strikes despite getting wobbled multiple times. I feel like it's a tough fight for either guy but Conor has to put him away if he wants to win.