Cryptocurrency - a few tips from an old hand

Discussion in 'Mayberry Lounge' started by Nik123, Dec 20, 2017.

  1. Nik123

    Nik123 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2005
    Messages:
    2,148
    Likes Received:
    282
    I did hear about the NEM hack a while back, and that the stolen funds were being watched by everyone on the blockchain lol. Which is why they seem to have converted them etc. Looks like a standard money laundering (layering) type operation. Good find - I am a strong believer in regulation being good for this industry because of incidents like this. We need strong AML laws and procedures for this reason.
     
    Strychnine likes this.
  2. ToxicShocker

    ToxicShocker Hamsterdam

    Joined:
    May 14, 2009
    Messages:
    4,618
    Likes Received:
    6,976
    Location:
    Craigslist T4M
    Sorry, you responded well to my post but I didn't include the bubble comment from above it. I agree it can be used as a currency but that doesn't explain a 250 x price increase over a few years. That's a speculative bubble. Tulips have a cost, a value, and a tradeable margin. They are worth a price you are willing to pay to plant as a object of beauty ($1). They have a cost associated with planting, feeding, cutting and shipping to market ($.85). But when used as a currency they are worth $300?
     
    RagingBeringola likes this.
  3. Luminaire

    Luminaire Red Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    9,837
    Likes Received:
    7,947
    Lol, even the old hands that presumably made a lot of money are getting a little shook now that their HODLings are roughly 40% of what they were in December.
     
  4. Tamriel Terror

    Tamriel Terror Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2014
    Messages:
    10,885
    Likes Received:
    35,708
    Yea, I keep hearing people say HODL!!, but in reality HODL'ing can massively backfire. If people sold at the beginning of January and just bought back in recently they'd be doing amazing. HODL'ing isn't the best strategy in such a volatile market imo.
     
  5. Henry Huggins

    Henry Huggins Green Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2012
    Messages:
    1,133
    Likes Received:
    260
    Well duh. Unless you'e manipulating the market you can't predict and just sell high
     
  6. Luminaire

    Luminaire Red Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    9,837
    Likes Received:
    7,947
    Just look at the chart... it screams "stay the hell away"

    An out of this world run up to 19k, followed by one dip after another each time settling at a lower support level as people slowly exit the market.

    I think it keeps consolidating lower, tests the 2-3k level in the short term.

    Any hardcore believer must be backing up the truck and accumulating... problem is, doesn't seem to be many of them.
     
  7. Nik123

    Nik123 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2005
    Messages:
    2,148
    Likes Received:
    282
    Thanks for the compliment.

    Let me explain it to you like this. Any disruptive technology typically follows an adoption J curve. The name is a bit counter intuitive, but what this means is as follows:

    1. Disruptive technology hits the scene (Tulips don’t qualify)
    2. The early adopter money comes in (in the case of crypto, pre-2017)
    3. The smart money comes in - sophisticated investors (mid 2017)
    5. The public catch on, and a speculative bubble forms and bursts/ based purely on hysteria and no actual viable products (dec 2017 - current)
    6. The real value of the technology starts bearing fruit, real disruptive technologies and projects start releasing their MVPs - the use case becomes demonstrable. At this point, steady organic growth begins and the market eventually breaks previous all time highs. Only difference is - this time it is based on real value, not speculation (the next three years for crypto will show this).

    This pattern was evident in previous bubbles with disruptive technology- such as railroads and the internet.

    Same thing will happen with cryptocurrency in my view - which is why I have been buying the dips and adding to my positions.

    And to your point about tulips having a cost to produce, I would point out that producing a cryptographic currency costs huge amounts of computing power and electricity - making them more intrinsically valuable than flowers or the pieces of paper that we use as money. And as we discussed, the actual value beyond the cost is what value we choose to give to an asset, based on trust and perceived trust.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2018
    RTL and Strychnine like this.
  8. Strychnine

    Strychnine Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2006
    Messages:
    21,961
    Likes Received:
    19,714
    Location:
    Georgia, USA

    I'm hoping that the Ethos app can cut down on this type of thievery and cheating.
     
  9. Nik123

    Nik123 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2005
    Messages:
    2,148
    Likes Received:
    282
    That’s the goal. They are working closely with regulators and have a top law firm advising them to keep them ahead of the pack in terms of being both compliant and living up to the Ethos (ethics) mission statement.

    I work in financial services myself - and trust me when I say their team is a true heavyweight team in this space.
     
    Strychnine likes this.
  10. Strychnine

    Strychnine Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2006
    Messages:
    21,961
    Likes Received:
    19,714
    Location:
    Georgia, USA
    I took your advice and I went in on Ethos so, I'm not just spit-balling, I am invested.

    But....

    I did NOT invest more than I could afford to lose. :)
     
    Nik123 likes this.
  11. Nik123

    Nik123 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2005
    Messages:
    2,148
    Likes Received:
    282
    Good man! : )

    Personally I would never put in more than 10% of my net assets into high risk high reward investments, but at the rate crypto can explode it can quickly become like half or more of your net worth.
     
    Strychnine likes this.
  12. Klippy

    Klippy Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2014
    Messages:
    1,532
    Likes Received:
    663
    The only token I'm very confident on is Chainlink.
     
    SuwoopBangin likes this.
  13. Strychnine

    Strychnine Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2006
    Messages:
    21,961
    Likes Received:
    19,714
    Location:
    Georgia, USA
    "The Nasdaq in 2000 and modern-day bitcoin both rallied 250 to 280 percent in their most "exuberant" periods ahead of bear markets, Morgan StanleyMS said in a note to clients.

    "Just that the bitcoin rally was around 15 times the speed," Sheena Shah, strategist at Morgan Stanley said.

    These price moves and similar behavior in trading volume could be signs that Nasdaq history is repeating itself, according to Shah."


    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...-faster/ar-BBKqRU7?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

    I'm not running around and screeching "The sky is falling!" or anything because....

    I did NOT invest more than I could afford to lose :)
     
    JonesBones and Nik123 like this.
  14. JonesBones

    JonesBones Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2011
    Messages:
    22,204
    Likes Received:
    6,552
    Location:
    New York
    It's coming back up. They are debating on CNBC whether there should be a bitcoin "stock". I am assuming ETF. I think the time has come for that. Their needs to be crypto etfs. Those twins tried before and were rejected.

    I would fuck around with the ETF. It would be a fun ride. It would be so much easier than going through all the exchanges. I can get exposure to crypto without dealing with people like coinbase ,

    (and yes I know Robinhood is in crypto now but NY is one of the few states they don't take customers from)
     
    Strychnine likes this.
  15. taurus

    taurus Tiger knee belt

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2004
    Messages:
    6,829
    Likes Received:
    1,318
    Ethos universal wallet is not even out, yet I (we) have 3 upcoming airdrops already. SmartCash, aXpire and BitDegree. It will probably not be a lot but still, good on Ethos team for teaming up with other teams and promote each others tokens. Price wise... crickets and tumbleweed. Go figure.

    That said, i'm tempted to buy more of BDG. My initial investment took a nosedive (even though i bought on the second dip, far below ATH), so i can double the token stack for 15% of initial investment. I'm still hesitant.
     
    Strychnine and Nik123 like this.
  16. Nik123

    Nik123 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2005
    Messages:
    2,148
    Likes Received:
    282
    Go with what your risk appetite and investment horizon tell you. BDG is a long term hold. Ethos is poised to make huge returns when the bull market returns - more of a mid to short term horizon (ie. next 2-6 months). And yes, Ethos airdrops are nice, but don’t expect huge price movements till market confidence returns (the Consensus expo is May is an event to watch).
     
    Strychnine and taurus like this.
  17. taurus

    taurus Tiger knee belt

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2004
    Messages:
    6,829
    Likes Received:
    1,318
    I know, i know, i'm terribly impatient. I knew BDG was a long term hold, it's not a project where you expect an Alpha or Beta in a few months, it's the entire ecosystem, for a lack of a better word. Something like that doesn't happen that quickly. But since finding out Suppoman is an admin, i can't help but feel skeptic about it.

    From what i understand, March was never really that bullish. May-June is something majority of people agree on, regarding the bull return.
     
  18. Nik123

    Nik123 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2005
    Messages:
    2,148
    Likes Received:
    282
    Yeah exactly, it’s all about patience. And the summer timeframe, in accordance with major crypto events is the projected bull period the market is looking towards. Regarding suppoman, he’s an idiot shill - but I wouldn’t let his opinions or involvement tar your view, as long as you have done your own research.
     
    Strychnine and taurus like this.
  19. taurus

    taurus Tiger knee belt

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2004
    Messages:
    6,829
    Likes Received:
    1,318
    Really good read for everyone here:



    Forget whales, institutional investors and Soros/Rotschilds, exchanges are using the lack of regulations and closing the shorts/longs when it suits them.

    Lucky for me, i don't know nothing about futures and don't intend to even come near them (nor do i have a cool $1M to invest).
     
    Strychnine likes this.
  20. BoobyMcBoobFace

    BoobyMcBoobFace Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2008
    Messages:
    4,128
    Likes Received:
    2,577
    Location:
    Down
    Thanks Botty mcbotface
     
    Reyesnuthugr likes this.

Share This Page