Conspiracy is a Gates-way drug (New flip+guilty plea +++WOW+++): Investigation v. 14

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I think Manafort is considered a big fish and Gates isn't being used to flip him but rather nail him. Manafort has been a international criminal heavily tied to thugs and mobsters, with JD supposedly almost having him in 2012 before backing off for some reason. Mueller would have been very aware of him as Director of the FBI and was probably pissed they couldn't get him then.

He's 69 yrs old. If Gates is pleading to a 5-7 yr sentence, it means Manafort would get that minimum as well as you don't give better deals to the guy who pleads out after. So Manafort isn't going to plead out and roll over for 7 years in Federal Prison and get out when he's 76 years old. I think he'll fight the charges and appeals and kill himself the day before sentencing when his appeals have been exhausted.

Gates' flip is a slam dunk on getting Manafort behind bars ASAP. That is what Mueller wants here.
 
HomerThompson said:
Just read Quipling's OP.
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I see, thank you for the direction.

This is really for anyone, but what constitutes a lie of note in these sorts of interviews? I'm sure Gates lying about the meeting with the congressman was germane to topic, no?
 
PolishHeadlock said:
Good Twitter thread


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Fuuuuuuuuuck, that's fucking deep. Manafort is in some deep shit.

The part I wanna know if it's true is if Trump really told confidants that Manafort could bring him down. If so, this is the political equivalent of the Ottomans sieging Constantinople. When the Dardanelles Gun comes out, it's all downhill from there.
 
ShoelessRye said:
I think Manafort is considered a big fish and Gates isn't being used to flip him but rather nail him. Manafort has been a international criminal heavily tied to thugs and mobsters, with JD supposedly almost having him in 2012 before backing off for some reason. Mueller would have been very aware of him as Director of the FBI and was probably pissed they couldn't get him then.

He's 69 yrs old. If Gates is pleading to a 5-7 yr sentence, it means Manafort would get that minimum as well as you don't give better deals to the guy who pleads out after. So Manafort isn't going to plead out and roll over for 7 years in Federal Prison and get out when he's 76 years old. I think he'll fight the charges and appeals and kill himself the day before sentencing when his appeals have been exhausted.

Gates' flip is a slam dunk on getting Manafort behind bars ASAP. That is what Mueller wants here.
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seems relatively speculative but in part, perhaps correct.
 
Falsedawn said:
Fuuuuuuuuuck, that's fucking deep. Manafort is in some deep shit.

The part I wanna know if it's true is if Trump really told confidants that Manafort could bring him down. If so, this is the political equivalent of the Ottomans sieging Constantinople. When the Dardanelles Gun comes out, it's all downhill from there.
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what is the speculation behind Manafort being able to bring Trump down? I'm assuming Russian related financial dirt rather than campaign collusion with Russia?
 
andnowweknow said:
what is the speculation behind Manafort being able to bring Trump down? I'm assuming Russian related financial dirt rather than campaign collusion with Russia?
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Yeah, dude.

If Trump was laundering money through Russian/Ukranian networks with his friend, Manafort, then he's done. You think the American people won't toss him if there is concrete evidence proving he's an actual swamp monster? This is literally the most hated abstract paradigm of human being in the country right now. Pretty much everyone, whatever their politics, is aligned against the 0.1%.

People love Wal-Mart. They hate the Waltons.
 
andnowweknow said:
layman it on me.
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Gates worked closely to Manafort and pleaded guilty to conspiring with Manafort in connection with 7 different crimes. The criminal conspiracy started in 2012 and continued through 2017.

andnowweknow said:
what is the speculation behind Manafort being able to bring Trump down? I'm assuming Russian related financial dirt rather than campaign collusion with Russia?
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Speculative. Mostly built around Trump's references to whether Manafort will testify and suspicious behavior by Manafort and how that relates to Trump's own connections to Russia.

I don't think one should assume that finance and "collusion" are necessarily separate.
 
andnowweknow said:
what is the speculation behind Manafort being able to bring Trump down? I'm assuming Russian related financial dirt rather than campaign collusion with Russia?
Click to expand...

Read that twitter thread, Abramson goes into way better detail than I could.

But to sum it up, after Manafort was hired onto the campaign, the Trump campaign made a number of suspect policy shifts that also so happened to benefit Russian interests. These were presumably brokered by Manafort and Gates, and funneled through to Trump and his campaign.

I'm not doing it enough justice, but that's collusion if as presented.
 
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ShoelessRye said:
I think Manafort is considered a big fish and Gates isn't being used to flip him but rather nail him. Manafort has been a international criminal heavily tied to thugs and mobsters, with JD supposedly almost having him in 2012 before backing off for some reason. Mueller would have been very aware of him as Director of the FBI and was probably pissed they couldn't get him then.

He's 69 yrs old. If Gates is pleading to a 5-7 yr sentence, it means Manafort would get that minimum as well as you don't give better deals to the guy who pleads out after. So Manafort isn't going to plead out and roll over for 7 years in Federal Prison and get out when he's 76 years old. I think he'll fight the charges and appeals and kill himself the day before sentencing when his appeals have been exhausted.

Gates' flip is a slam dunk on getting Manafort behind bars ASAP. That is what Mueller wants here.
Click to expand...

You think he'll be able to stay out on bail if everything is rolled out?

He's got connections and bank accounts in several countries.

He's the definition of a flight risk imo
 
Manafort either doesn't care about himself or is just going to negotiate info for amnesty. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that IF Manafort has real dirt on Trump, it's already been made clear to him that his life is over if he talks. And I'd imagine this is a threat from Russians, not Trump.
 
PolishHeadlock said:
You think he'll be able to stay out on bail if everything is rolled out?

He's got connections and bank accounts in several countries.

He's the definition of a flight risk imo
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He's already been returned to house arrest (where he was before getting bail) because the assets he offered to meet bail were tainted or subject to foreclosure.
 
andnowweknow said:
Manafort either doesn't care about himself or is just going to negotiate info for amnesty. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that IF Manafort has real dirt on Trump, it's already been made clear to him that his life is over if he talks. And I'd imagine this is a threat from Russians, not Trump.
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The guy is completely fucked he just hasn't decided if he wants it in the mouth or the ass yet.
 
andnowweknow said:
Manafort either doesn't care about himself or is just going to negotiate info for amnesty. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that IF Manafort has real dirt on Trump, it's already been made clear to him that his life is over if he talks. And I'd imagine this is a threat from Russians, not Trump.
Click to expand...

lifetime in prison or polonium tea

tough choice
 
Madmick said:
Yeah, dude.

If Trump was laundering money through Russian/Ukranian networks with his friend, Manafort, then he's done. You think the American people won't toss him if there is concrete evidence proving he's an actual swamp monster? This is literally the most hated abstract paradigm of human being in the country right now. Pretty much everyone, whatever their politics, is aligned against the 0.1%.

People love Wal-Mart. They hate the Waltons.
Click to expand...

I think a large portion of the country wouldnt care.
 
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