Conor McGregor -- An objective view on his ground game and takedown defence

ChickenNugget

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First of, I know McGregor is a controversial topic on these boards.
I want this discussion to stay objective, completely disregarding his personality.

What is this about?

A lot of people claim that McGregor will have his stiffest test against RDA at UFC 196, mainly since RDA has shown good wrestling and savvy BJJ, which is in general considered McGregors weakpoint.
But on what grounds?
Let's take a quick look at McGregor's UFC fights and find out how his TDD and submission defence held up, and the circumstances the fights happened in.

p60mcgregor.jpg

The Fights

Marcus Brimage: No takedown attempts.
Max Holloway:
  • Holloway did not attempt any takedowns nor submissions.
  • McGregor (surprisingly) attempted 5 takedowns and landed 4.
    • rnd 1: McGregor missed one takedown.
    • rnd 2: McGregor completed 1.
    • rnd 3: Mcgregor completed 3.
  • McGregor suffered a complete ACL tear, a MCL strain, and a posterior horn meniscal tear at the end of the second round of the fight [Source]
  • Holloway has injured his ankle within the first 30 seconds of the fight. [Source]
  • The fight went to a decision.
  • McGregor passed guard twice in rnd 2 and 4 times in rnd 3.
Diego Brandao:
  • The fight was stopped within the first round.
  • McGregor scored 1 of 1 takedowns (reversed Brandao in the air)
  • Brandao missed 2 of 2 takedowns.
  • Brandao attempted a leg submission but McGregor defended.
Dustin Poirier: No takedown attempts.
Dennis Siver:
  • Siver tried taking down McGregor thrice, but the attempts were all stufed by McGregor.
  • McGregor passed guard on one occasion.
Chad Mendes:
  • Chad scored 3 of 4 takedowns attempts in rnd 1 and passed guard twice.
  • Chad scored 1 of 3 takedown attempts in rnd 2 (no guard passes).
  • There were no submission attempts (accoring to FightMetric. I remember one guillotine attempt though).
  • Mendes took the fight on 2 weeks notice (and was not training in between camps)
  • McGregor had an 80% ACL tear 14 weeks before the Mendes fight and couldn't drill wrestling during camp. He didn't do sparring as well. [Source: here and here]
  • Mendes suffered a broken thumb in the first round of the fight. [Source]
  • According to Faber, Mendes broke his foot 5 days into his two weeks notice. [Source]
Jose Aldo: Well... uhm ... there were no takedowns.

The numbers were taken from FightMetric and result in a TDD of 66%.

Verdict:

This percentage has to be taken with a grain of salt, as 4 (a third of all the takedown attempts) of the takedowns landed on McGregor were executed by Mendes, where McGregor's wrestling preparation was nil due to injury.
All of McGregors fight were at FW, whereas the RDA fight will happen at LW.
RDA is a powerful fighter as he has shown that he can both outpower and out-technique top LWs when it comes to wrestling.
His takedown accuracy is 44%. Among his last 4 fights his takedown accuracy is close to perfect.
  • 9 of 10 against Pettis (no subs attempted)
  • 2 of 2 against Diaz (no subs attempted)
On the wrestling side it might not be as hopeless for McGregor as some people make it out to be.
If he comes in 100% that is. There is no real way to know before the fight happens how the wrestling game will turn out, as McGregor had a destroyed knee against the best wrestler among his opponents, Chad Mendes.

Discuss!
but keep it clean and objective ;)
 
Last edited:
Bet you are dying to take down Connor´s pants...
 
I hope RDA kills him,

but you aren't wrong- RDA will have trouble getting him down, and is likely not to try to take him down.

ive been saying this for a while- I think the fight stays on the feet til someone is hurt.
 
If you watch the highlight video that daffodilwoozy just posted in another thread, it is clear that Conor was unhealthy against Mendes. He looked far different in that fight. I would guess it was the knee injury, which then led to weight-cut issues.

Could very well be. He looked drawn out, but not quite as bad as before the Siver fight I had the feeling. Anyhow, thanks for the hint to the video. Could you edit your post with the source to the link such that people can see what you mean?
 
Mendes definitely attempted a submission. Conor beautifully escaped the legendary Alpha Male Guillotine.
 
I hope RDA kills him,

but you aren't wrong- RDA will have trouble getting him down, and is likely not to try to take him down.

ive been saying this for a while- I think the fight stays on the feet til someone is hurt.

Interesting view. You think RDA will try to prove a point? I'd say that's what McGregor wants ...
 
Mendes definitely attempted a submission. Conor beautifully escaped the legendary Alpha Male Guillotine.

I remember that as well, the FightMetric don't report on it. I'll make a note in the OP.
thanks for calling it.
 
Objectively speaking... I still feel I need to see more. The Aldo fight left me with more questions about Aldo and answered very little about Conor. To be totally honest his fight at 155 will still leave me with more questions than answers since I don't know where he's going to stay long term(considering his 170lb title aspirations).

If he loses at 155 he'll be back at 145, and then what? continue to cut? or make another run at 155 with time to grow into the division? he's 27, there is time for him to go up in down for a few more fights but 145 without IVs might take it's toll. I'll be watching.
 
Objectively speaking... I still feel I need to see more. The Aldo fight left me with more questions about Aldo and answered very little about Conor. To be totally honest his fight at 155 will still leave me with more questions than answers since I don't know where he's going to stay long term(considering his 170lb title aspirations).

If he loses at 155 he'll be back at 145, and then what? continue to cut? or make another run at 155 with time to grow into the division? he's 27, there is time for him to go up in down for a few more fights but 145 without IVs might take it's toll. I'll be watching.

Good post! I agree 100%, the Aldo fight could have been most indicative as to how MG vs RDA will go down.
we got zero information in that fight. Any prediction with respect to the ground game in that fight are just doomed to not be well founded since there is nothing to base it on.

I guess if he loses he'll stay at 145 lbs, and the cuts will be hard. Maybe he'll make some changes to his training in order to cut down a bit of muscle? Dana will not let him go for the 170 belt in that case.
We'll see. Conor himself never speaks about losing, so we no nothing again :D
 
I think Conor didn't looked on his best day against Chad too, not only the takedowns he conceded but his movements looked more limited on the stand-up.
 
Interesting view. You think RDA will try to prove a point? I'd say that's what McGregor wants ...

I think Conor does want him to try and prove a point, and I think he does try........

and unlike Ronda/Holm, I think RDA ends up proving that point on the feet.

we'll see...
 
What is this about?

A lot of people claim that McGregor will have his stiffest test against RDA at UFC 196, mainly since RDA has shown good wrestling and savvy BJJ, which is in general considered McGregors weakpoint.
But on what grounds?
Let's take a quick look at McGregor's UFC fights and find out how his TDD and submission defence held up, and the circumstances the fights happened in.

p60mcgregor.jpg

The Fights

Marcus Brimage: No takedown attempts.
Max Holloway:
  • Holloway did not attempt any takedowns nor submissions.
  • McGregor (surprisingly) attempted 5 takedowns and landed 4.
    • rnd 1: McGregor missed one takedown.
    • rnd 2: McGregor completed 1.
    • rnd 3: Mcgregor completed 3.
  • McGregor suffered a complete ACL tear, a MCL strain, and a posterior horn meniscal tear at the end of the second round of the fight [Source]
  • Holloway has injured his ankle within the first 30 seconds of the fight. [Source]
  • The fight went to a decision.
  • McGregor passed guard twice in rnd 2 and 4 times in rnd 3.
Diego Brandao:
  • The fight was stopped within the first round.
  • McGregor scored 1 of 1 takedowns (reversed Brandao in the air)
  • Brandao missed 2 of 2 takedowns.
  • Brandao attempted a leg submission but McGregor defended.
Dustin Poirier: No takedown attempts.
Dennis Siver:
  • Siver tried taking down McGregor thrice, but the attempts were all stufed by McGregor.
  • McGregor passed guard on one occasion.
Chad Mendes:
  • Chad scored 3 of 4 takedowns attempts in rnd 1 and passed guard twice.
  • Chad scored 1 of 3 takedown attempts in rnd 2 (no guard passes).
  • There were no submission attempts (accoring to FightMetric. I remember one guillotine attempt though).
  • Mendes took the fight on 2 weeks notice (and was not training in between camps)
  • McGregor had an 80% ACL tear 14 weeks before the Mendes fight and couldn't drill wrestling during camp. He didn't do sparring as well. [Source: here and here]
Jose Aldo: Well... uhm ... there were no takedowns.

The numbers were taken from FightMetric and result in a TDD of 66%.

Verdict:

This percentage has to be taken with a grain of salt, as 4 (a third of all the takedown attempts) of the takedowns landed on McGregor were executed by Mendes, where McGregor's wrestling preparation was nil due to injury.
All of McGregors fight were at FW, whereas the RDA fight will happen at LW.
RDA is a powerful fighter as he has shown that he can both outpower and out-technique top LWs when it comes to wrestling.
His takedown accuracy is 44%. Among his last 4 fights his takedown accuracy is close to perfect.
  • 9 of 10 against Pettis (no subs attempted)
  • 2 of 2 against Diaz (no subs attempted)
On the wrestling side it might not be as hopeless for McGregor as some people make it out to be.
If he comes in 100% that is. There is no real way to know before the fight happens how the wrestling game will turn out, as McGregor had a destroyed knee against the best wrestler among his opponents, Chad Mendes.

Discuss!
but keep it clean and objective ;)
Thank you for putting this up. Some people overweakenConor's back game and TDD, its not Aldo level but its not bad. Even Ryan Hall said its good. Btw, you should look up Conor's older fights, more showcasing of grappling, he has outgrappled black belts and subbed one too.
 
Whoever believes RDA can hang with Conor on the feet or that Conor would dominate RDA on the mat, you're truly Class A morons.
 
I just wonder how much both guys being southpaws and the movement is going to play out. Both can pressure quite well but it's RDAs bread and butter and I think he will be the one coming forward. Can McGregor fight off the back foot against a pressure fighting southpaw like RDA?

RDA's wrestling on the cage is really good so is McGregor going to avoid that with his feet or standing his ground with the counters. It seems a lot less risky to move but it just seems like a tough matchup for McGregor even standing and RDA is a monster grappler. If RDA can clinch consistently on the cage I imagine him taking the fight over.
 
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