Comparing the 10 UFC fights of Conor and Khabib

[VegetaGD]

Bullshit, you can't compare.

Pettis was already on a 3 fight losing streak when he went to FW, and he only lost to the champ Max at FW.

I see that you zoomed in on the Pettis example which is totally fine, I should have been broader with my explanation. I addressed this in another post:​

3. Given that the divisions they've competed in (FW and LW) have a healthy deal of crossover, it's not exceptionally difficult to estimate how a FW would do if they moved up to LW. Note that I'm not trying to estimate how LWs would do at FW because many of them wouldn't be able to safely make the cut. The data, however is there. Out of the top 10 FWs and LWs on Fight Matrix, 9 of 20 have competed at both divisions giving a healthy data set to analyze. It's fair to reliably say that the top 5 featherweights would almost always be competitive with LWs ranked 6th or lower.

So after reading the above data, do you still think it’s impossible to get a feel for how FWs and LWs might perform in each other’s division? I’m not suggesting there’s an exact science, but is it fair to say that there’s enough crossover evidence to make some educated estimates?​

 

[VegetaGD]

I see Conor knob guzzling is in full force.

The statistics that interest me is that one of the two fighters is undefeated with 8 sub wins and the other has 3 losses by sub.

Which fighter got finished by a fringe top 10 fighter in the UFC again? refresh my memory please.

To answer your question, Conor was finished by Nate Diaz in their first fight. I don't, however, agree with your implication that this loss should be viewed in isolation as evidence that Khabib will beat Conor.

Couple of considerations:

Anderson Silva suffered his third loss as a professional at the age of 28 to Ryo Chonan. I've embedded it below in case you haven't seen it:

​

Worth noting - Conor was 27 when he lost to Nate. As you all know, Silva then went on a 19 fight win streak if you don't count the Okami fight. Similar story, between Conor and Silva - Exceptional strikers with some grappling weaknesses that needed to be addressed.

Chuck's first loss to Randy also comes to mind. What if you'd written Chuck off based on that?

If you look at the All-Time Absolute ranking on FightMatrix, you'll see that many of the best fighters have suffered a few ugly losses:

www.fightmatrix.com/all-time-mma-rankings/all-time-absolute
​

I can't force my perspective on you, but it would be wise for you to look at Conor's body of work and overall talent level when predicting this matchup.

Another factor worth reflecting on is the actual matchup between Nate and Conor. Nate's boxing was good enough to keep him competitive against Conor's greatest strength. Nate's durability and cardio acknowledged by any sensible MMA fan allowed him to endure Conor's burst giving him the opportunity to take over the fight when Conor gassed. The second fight showed significant adjustments by Conor. Khabib has none of the attributes that Nate had at his disposal. His standup is garbage and his cardio, while solid, is not on Nate's level. We don't really know what his chin is like, but there's no evidence to suggest that he can endure a beating like Nate can.

What does this mean? For all intents and purposes, Khabib is a wholly one-dimensional opponent where Nate presented challenges standing and on the ground.

Conor will gameplan around this, and pick Khabib apart slowly and methodically. I don't think he'll go for the kill early so that he can save juice in case Khabib takes him down. Khabib will slow in the 4th and Conor will turn up the pace and finish him.

​

 

[Bobbybackpack]

I like numbers. They tell their own story and they rarely add bullshit like people do. Draw your own conclusions, but I'm going to run through some facts:

Fact 1

Conor and Khabib both have 10 UFC fights

Facts 2 and 3

Conor is 9-1 in the UFC
Khabib is 10-0 in the UFC​

Edit - Double checked my numbers. Original incorrect numbers in red, updated numbers in green. Worth noting, not counting draws or NCs, as they throw a monkey wrench into the fold.

Facts 4-7

Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 107-52 (67.30 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 102-50 (67.11 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 208-74 (73.76 winning %) in all of their fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 82-60 (57.75 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 80-59 (57.55 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 203-95 (68.12 winning %) in all of their fights

My conclusion is that Conor has fought significantly better UFC opponents than Khabib and will soundly defeat him when they fight. Interested in other conclusions and kindly ask that they're backed by data.​

Adding another piece of data for those who feel that the original analysis is lacking:

Khabib has stopped 4 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 40%
Khabib's UFC opponents have been stopped 31 times in 139 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 22.30%
Therefore, Khabib is 1.79x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Conor has stopped 7 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 70%
Conor's UFC opponents have been stopped 23 times in 152 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 15.13%
Therefore, Conor is 4.63x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Funny that everyone is praising Khabib's smashing ability, but the numbers simply don't support it.​

Adding another piece of data. Opponents sorted by all-time ranking using FightMatrix. Finishes in green.

Yes, I've grown tired of people pointing out that you can't compare FWs to LWs but the reality is that you can. Anthony Pettis is an example of a highly succesful LW who didn't have runaway success at FW so the best fighters in these two divisions can be argued to be consistently competitive with each other.

There is enough data to suggest that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor defeated would beat any of the LWs that Khabib beat (outside of RDA) if the fight took place at LW. Now, I'm not so sure that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor beat would beat the RDA that Khabib beat, but I do think it would be a very competitive matchup.

There is however, reliable evidence to suggest that the 2016 version of Eddie Alvarez that Conor defeated would beat the 2014 version of RDA that Khabib defeated. Eddie Alvarez finished RDA in 2016 before losing to Conor. Perhaps you'd like to argue that RDA declined as a fighter after his loss to Khabib? Not easy to considering that RDA then went on the best win streak of his career.

Who here thinks that the Max Holloway that Conor defeated would lose (at LW) to the Michael Johnson, Al Iaquinta, Pat Healy or Gleison Tibau that Khabib defeated. I, for one, do not.​

TS has a PHD in MMA Mathematics lmao.