Comparing the 10 UFC fights of Conor and Khabib

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by VegetaGD, Aug 9, 2018.

  1. VegetaGD

    VegetaGD Purple Belt

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    I like numbers. They tell their own story and they rarely add bullshit like people do. Draw your own conclusions, but I'm going to run through some facts:

    Fact 1

    Conor and Khabib both have 10 UFC fights

    Facts 2 and 3

    Conor is 9-1 in the UFC
    Khabib is 10-0 in the UFC​

    Edit - Double checked my numbers. Original incorrect numbers in red, updated numbers in green. Worth noting, not counting draws or NCs, as they throw a monkey wrench into the fold.


    Facts 4-7

    Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 107-52 (67.30 winning %) in their own UFC fights

    Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 102-50 (67.11 winning %) in their own UFC fights
    Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 208-74 (73.76 winning %) in all of their fights
    Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 82-60 (57.75 winning %) in their own UFC fights
    Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 80-59 (57.55 winning %) in their own UFC fights
    Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 203-95 (68.12 winning %) in all of their fights

    My conclusion is that Conor has fought significantly better UFC opponents than Khabib and will soundly defeat him when they fight. Interested in other conclusions and kindly ask that they're backed by data.​

    Adding another piece of data for those who feel that the original analysis is lacking:


    Khabib has stopped 4 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 40%
    Khabib's UFC opponents have been stopped 31 times in 139 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 22.30%
    Therefore, Khabib is 1.79x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

    Conor has stopped 7 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 70%
    Conor's UFC opponents have been stopped 23 times in 152 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 15.13%
    Therefore, Conor is 4.63x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

    Funny that everyone is praising Khabib's smashing ability, but the numbers simply don't support it.​

    Adding another piece of data. Opponents sorted by all-time ranking using FightMatrix. Finishes in green.

    [​IMG]

    Yes, I've grown tired of people pointing out that you can't compare FWs to LWs but the reality is that you can. Anthony Pettis is an example of a highly succesful LW who didn't have runaway success at FW so the best fighters in these two divisions can be argued to be consistently competitive with each other.

    There is enough data to suggest that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor defeated would beat any of the LWs that Khabib beat (outside of RDA) if the fight took place at LW. Now, I'm not so sure that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor beat would beat the RDA that Khabib beat, but I do think it would be a very competitive matchup.

    There is however, reliable evidence to suggest that the 2016 version of Eddie Alvarez that Conor defeated would beat the 2014 version of RDA that Khabib defeated. Eddie Alvarez finished RDA in 2016 before losing to Conor. Perhaps you'd like to argue that RDA declined as a fighter after his loss to Khabib? Not easy to considering that RDA then went on the best win streak of his career.

    Who here thinks that the Max Holloway that Conor defeated would lose (at LW) to the Michael Johnson, Al Iaquinta, Pat Healy or Gleison Tibau that Khabib defeated. I, for one, do not.​
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018
  2. IngaVovchanchyn

    IngaVovchanchyn Steel Belt Platinum Member

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    I think it is obvious that McGregor has faced better competition. I don't think that means he will therefore defeat Khabib. I think Khabib has the edge in this match up.
     
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  3. Thepaintbucket

    Thepaintbucket Silver Belt

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    If it was based on numbers Jose Aldo would've beat Conor Mcgregor.
     
  4. Sansnom

    Sansnom Black Belt

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    Did you also take into account the size and reach differences Conor had over the midgets he was fighting in your calculations?
     
  5. Stevanchez

    Stevanchez Green Belt

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    Conor has an overall better resume than Khabib.

    And it will mean absolutely nothing when they fight.
     
  6. Lukn4trbl

    Lukn4trbl Blue Belt

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    MMA math.

    Backed the fuck up - n - all!
     
  7. Fungoose

    Fungoose Kitty Whisperer

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    I don’t understand the need to diminish either fighter. Clash of the titans, I say.
     
  8. WaylonMercy5150

    WaylonMercy5150 Red Belt

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    Bruhs, I have a bad feeling Khabib will pull out of this fight
     
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  9. myjohnson9

    myjohnson9 GOAT

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    Your facts fuckin suck, let go nuthugger












    Conor’s level of competition is significantly better
     
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  10. Lukn4trbl

    Lukn4trbl Blue Belt

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    I'm afraid history repeats itself all too often ,so I have that same feeling.

    Somebody is getting injured or scared.
     
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  11. NotoriousMillions

    NotoriousMillions The GOAT Whisperer™

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    Conor haters don't like hard-backed data! It disproves their point Conor isn't the greatest!
     
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  12. Franklin U.

    Franklin U. Silver Belt

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    Plain and simple- as far as the 155 division is concerned, we'll be watching the 2 best lightweights in world fight and winner speaks volumes about himself and a probable lengthy title reign will follow.
    Khabib has been making it look easy and Conor did basically make Eddie Alvarez look like he didn't belong in same cage as him.....hitting him with 50% power shots and Eddie falling all over the place.
    I'm not a big Conor guy (but love the way he fights) and at current Vegas odds, I have to take shot with him.
    Conor reminds me of Roberto Duran- as long as he stays at his proper weight class (155), he'll be tough to beat.
     
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  13. noah1212

    noah1212 Drink the Kool-Aid Platinum Member

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    That's a shallow stat if you don't take into account how decisively they were won, etc...

    And the difference is less than 10% in quality of opponents. The difference in winrate between Conor and khabib is 10%. So in other words, they are almost completely even.
     
  14. THEfightsAREfixed

    THEfightsAREfixed White Belt

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    The Cabin Russian fellow has a 59% chance of pulling out from injury.

    And this O'Malley Irish boxer has a 87% chance of victory with a 62% KO chance.

    I'm open to any data driven argument to the contrary but you must show your work.
     
  15. ANIM4L

    ANIM4L Purple Belt

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    Khabib's fights were at LW. His competition was tougher by default.
     
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  16. VegetaGD

    VegetaGD Purple Belt

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    I like this point. I ran the same numbers adjusted to 12.12.2015 when Conor faced Aldo

    Conor was 6-0, Aldo 7-0

    Conor's UFC opponents were a combined 54-26 (67.50 winning %) in their own UFC fights
    Aldo's UFC opponents were a combined 55-24 (69.62 winning %) in their own UFC fights

    Numbers are close enough where you couldn't have made the prediction based on one man fighting significantly superior competition.
     
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  17. Thepaintbucket

    Thepaintbucket Silver Belt

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    You didn't account for all of Jose Aldos WEC wins. They were all highly credible wins man. Could you throw those in and recalculate.
     
  18. JohnOates

    JohnOates Orange Belt

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    The bullshit occurs by what numbers/stats people show and selectively leave out...

    But seriously, you showed a decent stat.

    Shame it won't mean much when they fight

    I do like the premise tho
     
  19. VegetaGD

    VegetaGD Purple Belt

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    Just looking at UFC wins my man, takes a lot of time to run the numbers. Please do look at Jose's overall record vs Conor's leading up to the fight and provide the data. Would love to see it!
     
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  20. Thepaintbucket

    Thepaintbucket Silver Belt

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    Lol you are a good sport. Thanks nonetheless.
     

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