Chael/Bader comparison

Kinosis

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I've been watching Chael's last few fights, where he dominated Wand and Rampage, and I've seen Bader's last few fights as well. People are talking about Bader like he is just a better version of Chael (which is somewhat true), but it's not that simple.

Chael Sonnen is 41 years old, 6'1, 227lbs and has a 73 inch reach. His striking is actually pretty good these days, especially with the threat of him shooting on you. He was able to do very well on the feet against Rampage and even able his punches (even outweighed by 30lbs+). He also hurt Anderson Silva on the feet. Chael goes 100% and tends to break if he can't get his way. He has very good takedowns. He also has submissions, typically involving chokes. His chin is actually really good, he just caves to being overwhelmed.

His weaknesses tend to be mentally breaking/getting tired when he can't impose his will. He is much worse off his back than he is on top. His punching power isn't great, but he did hurt guys like Anderson and Rampage on the feet.

Ryan Bader is 35 years old, 6'2, 74 inch reach. 229.5lbs. He is basically the same size as Chael, just slightly larger. He has more punching power, but his striking isn't particularity fluid. It feels forced. He uses power to get a takedown and has pretty good control once on the ground. His control is probably a bit overrated right now because of fighting Mitrione, who is terrible on the ground. His chin can be questionable, but at HW it could be much better because of not cutting weight (hard to say since he hasn't even been hit during the tournament). Like Chael, his strikes are more effective than his technique might allow, because of the threat of the takedown. His relative youth and power make him a legit threat at HW.

Bader's past weaknesses have been cracking under pressure in big fights, his chin has been cracked multiple times (at LHW), and he doesn't have nearly as much of a submission threat. His cardio is hard to say because he hasn't had a tough fight at HW (which could just be because he is that good).
 
Good thread.

Fedor tjisse and his team must prepare a very specific tailor made game plan for Bader, work on cardio and the rest should hopefully fall in place with some real time on the fly adjustments Fedor is capable of.

I'm definitely aware of Baders strengths playing perfectly towards some of Fedors weaknesses, in fact it's his fight to lose but I have total faith in motivated/barking Fedor

He is hungry again and wants to leave on a bang which is why I respect him.
 
I think Chael has better wrestling technique than Bader, and Fedor should be fairly comfortable fighting a physically stronger opponent. I did however see Fedor in some bad positions where he was vulnerable to those under the armpit uppercuts like when he fought Henderson.
 
Fedor will KTFO Bader
 
On paper, everything indicates that Bader should be able to pressure and wrestle Fedor for 5 rounds. At this age, Fedor may not have the cardio to hold that.

Buttttt... I have that feeling that Fedor is gonna put him out cold with something.

Note : Is it really 5 rounds or 3 ?
 
Bader should be the favorite, no doubt. He is younger, stronger, has better recent wins, and in his prime.

However, this always happens in MMA: fighter destroys someone and looks unbeatable, then loses. Look at Rumble Johnson. Mitrione is a stud but he has terrible ground game and that is Bader's strength. Fedor has much better TDD and can fight off his back. I still think it will be very tough for Fedor to win this fight. Bader has been chinned a few times and Fedor probably hits as hard as anyone Bader has faced except maybe Rumble. Fedor has quick hands and decades of fight knowledge.

And yes, it's for the title so it's a 5 round fight.
 
The biggest factor is Baders hands. More power and he's gotten a lot better with them. In the past he's done a lot of dumb stuff and paid for it.

He does look more labored taking people down. Whereas Chael works on a higher pace because of his chain wrestling style.

Fedor isn't what he used to be but he still has glimpses of greatness in his ground game. He showed it in his last two fights. The guy is very dangerous on the ground. I almost guarantee Bader is going to try and keep it standing.
 
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