Canelo vs GGG rematch close

[PHATV]

I really think GGG won the first bout but will lose the rematch now that Canelo has been in there with the "legend" and tasted the power and such. I'm kind of a sucker for white exotic punchers, so I'm OK with being wrong or even doing a 30-day sig bet (I'll take GGG), but I suspect Canelo will show much improvement over their first matchup. And I think GGG brings the same tools/plan and comes up short this time.
We shall see.
Any regular want to take the sig bet? 30 days and I'll take GGG, betting with heart instead of logic for the sig.

 

[PUO3]

Dude I watched hours of golovkin before jacobs. Saying he’s got old is saying his young stuff would’ve been as good as his old stuff. His technique is tighter the tells are still there but no, not old.

There was nothing in his performance that made me think hed lost a step.

 

[JayE]

There was nothing in his performance that made me think hed lost a step.

Although Golovkin was never fast or particularly reliant on his speed, I do think he has slowed a tad from 4-5 years ago. It's not a rapid decline just yet, but I think he is gradually declining (which isn't to say that he wouldn't always struggle with Jacobs and Canelo as I think he likely would).

 

[Sunfish]

There was nothing in his performance that made me think hed lost a step.

I’ve watched him too much, he hasn’t lost a step at all, but it was what was in front of him that stands out. I know I have my own personal troll following me around but if you’ve got an afternoon spare (or no girlfriend) it is what it was.

 

[breadfighter]

What did he do differently to make you think this?

His legs were looking just the slightest bit shot. Not taking anything away from Canelo though, his waist movement had a lot to do with it, I won't deny that.

I watched GGG vs Monroe live and Monroes slickness was giving GGG problems before he eventually got worn down. Now add some strength to that slickness like Canelo has, plus not having the legs to spring into those openings, and it's a long night for Gennady.

 

[Sunfish]

The day someone walks into the ring with gennady thinking he’s shot is the same day they’ll wake up looking at the lights. Honestly all his fights are on the Internet. Show me where he’s changed? Footwork, combinations, defense, power, accuracy. He hasn’t really adapted because he hasn’t fucking needed to, he is a world class fighter. You win by doing what Danny did. You don’t wait until he’s 700 years old and then nudge your friend and say “I called that”.

 

[aries]

The day someone walks into the ring with gennady thinking he’s shot is the same day they’ll wake up looking at the lights. Honestly all his fights are on the Internet. Show me where he’s changed? Footwork, combinations, defense, power, accuracy. He hasn’t really adapted because he hasn’t fucking needed to, he is a world class fighter. You win by doing what Danny did. You don’t wait until he’s 700 years old and then nudge your friend and say “I called that”.

I don't think Danny won but I agree that Jacobs had the strategy just right to beat GGG. As you say he hasn't really needed to adapt the way he fights, it's been a formula for success so far.

 

[Dr. Will]

Abel Sanchez turned Golovkin into an accumulation KO artist BUT he took away some of Golovkin's biggest strengths, too.
Golovkin has very clearly been slipping BUT he was still in good condition IMO.
This matchup stylistically favours Canelo.
I think Golovkin is most probably going to look worse and worse every single time we see him and Canelo should win this now, 7-5.
I think the first fight was a draw and it made me respect Canelo.

 

[nastyleft]

Canelo wins, because he's smart enough to know why he didn't the first time. GGG pretty much did what he does, i hought he looked pretty good. Canelo laid on the ropes taking a break far too many times down the stretch while Golovkin was putting in some work. I could actually see that 1st fight as a GGG win, but I'm fine with the draw (Canelo was ahead by quite a bit imo early). This next fight will make it clearer.

 

[Seano]

I just watched the first fight again and I have to say I stand by Canelo winning that one. I think he boxed up Golovkin pretty good. Yeah, there where some rounds where he was a bit too passive but Golovkin just kept trying that same 1-1-2 and missing it over and over.

Thats one thing that impressed me about Canelo. Usually, when Golovkin lands that 1, the second jab sets up that right hand but instead of backing up, Canelo walked right in and fucked up Golovkins distance. He did it over and over and I think Golovkin never adjusted to that one time in the fight.

 

[nastyleft]

I just watched the first fight again and I have to say I stand by Canelo winning that one. I think he boxed up Golovkin pretty good. Yeah, there where some rounds where he was a bit too passive but Golovkin just kept trying that same 1-1-2 and missing it over and over.

Thats one thing that impressed me about Canelo. Usually, when Golovkin lands that 1, the second jab sets up that right hand but instead of backing up, Canelo walked right in and fucked up Golovkins distance. He did it over and over and I think Golovkin never adjusted to that one time in the fight.

Yeah, I agree. I think there will be much more of that the next fight.

 

[wilddeuces]

Canelo wins, because he's smart enough to know why he didn't the first time. GGG pretty much did what he does, i hought he looked pretty good. Canelo laid on the ropes taking a break far too many times down the stretch while Golovkin was putting in some work. I could actually see that 1st fight as a GGG win, but I'm fine with the draw (Canelo was ahead by quite a bit imo early). This next fight will make it clearer.

I don't see what Canelo can do. It's the nature of this style matchup that makes this fight a good one time and time again. It's not like after Gatti vs Ward 1. Gatti knew that he had to box, not fight, in the rematch. He did that the second time and won pretty clearly. Canelo can't just box more - he gets outjabbed and gives ground. He can't throw more punches - he fatigues faster. He also can't take more naps along the ropes - he dumps rounds there. I don't think he is going to walk into GGG and brawl. He tires too quick. He does that, he goes back to the ropes and takes more naps.

As long as Golovkin doesn't keep incrementally declining, given his age as a pressure fighter, then all their fights will play out pretty much like the first one. I bet the second fight is closer for Canelo but GGG gets it anyway on the cards, setting up an even more lucrative rubber match, then GGG retires. Who knows, maybe Canelo does too.

 

[PUO3]

I don't see what Canelo can do. It's the nature of this style matchup that makes this fight a good one time and time again. It's not like after Gatti vs Ward 1. Gatti knew that he had to box, not fight, in the rematch. He did that the second time and won pretty clearly. Canelo can't just box more - he gets outjabbed and gives ground. He can't throw more punches - he fatigues faster. He also can't take more naps along the ropes - he dumps rounds there. I don't think he is going to walk into GGG and brawl. He tires too quick. He does that, he goes back to the ropes and takes more naps.

As long as Golovkin doesn't keep incrementally declining, given his age as a pressure fighter, then all their fights will play out pretty much like the first one. I bet the second fight is closer for Canelo but GGG gets it anyway on the cards, setting up an even more lucrative rubber match, then GGG retires. Who knows, maybe Canelo does too.

Why cant Canelo box more? It was pretty obvious he was more skilled there.

Youre saying a lot of things that Canelo cant do but he had a lot of success doing all of them.

 

[JayE]

I don't see what Canelo can do. It's the nature of this style matchup that makes this fight a good one time and time again. It's not like after Gatti vs Ward 1. Gatti knew that he had to box, not fight, in the rematch. He did that the second time and won pretty clearly. Canelo can't just box more - he gets outjabbed and gives ground. He can't throw more punches - he fatigues faster. He also can't take more naps along the ropes - he dumps rounds there. I don't think he is going to walk into GGG and brawl. He tires too quick. He does that, he goes back to the ropes and takes more naps.

As long as Golovkin doesn't keep incrementally declining, given his age as a pressure fighter, then all their fights will play out pretty much like the first one. I bet the second fight is closer for Canelo but GGG gets it anyway on the cards, setting up an even more lucrative rubber match, then GGG retires. Who knows, maybe Canelo does too.

The fight was already drawish. Boxing more consistently throughout the round and not trying to sell out as much as he did on certain shots (so as not to fatigue himself as much) are two pretty clear improvements that he could make. Being more comfortable at the weight could also help his stamina a bit (Canelo is never going to have particularly good stamina, but he had a drawish fight last time out despite it and a small improvement could be very telling). It's not like Canelo fought an absolute perfect fight relative to his abilities and GGG fought well below himself.

 

[wilddeuces]

The fight was already drawish. Boxing more consistently throughout the round and not trying to sell out as much as he did on certain shots (so as not to fatigue himself as much) are two pretty clear improvements that he could make. Being more comfortable at the weight could also help his stamina a bit (Canelo is never going to have particularly good stamina, but he had a drawish fight last time out despite it and a small improvement could be very telling). It's not like Canelo fought an absolute perfect fight relative to his abilities and GGG fought well below himself.

I see where you are coming from but here are some considerations, fwiw:

1. He struggles against a good jabber so he won't look decisive there. GGG was successful any time when it was a boxing fight. Look at the large middle portion of the fight when it was more or less GGG boxing Canelo. Canelo couldn't get around that jab, and he wanted to be able to work around GGG's power punches so he could slide in his own sharp counters.
2. He needs GGG's respect so he wants to make the landed shots count. I really think he earned GGG's respect in terms of applied power. He can't let up or GGG will keep going.
3. He is already comfortable at the weight. Going up to 164 and then being at 160. The weight isn't an issue, his body type, and fast twitch muscles are just always going to put a burden on his stamina.

Previously, I had said that given the nature of the two men, their fights would always be close, and I still stand by that. I don't see either guy winning some landslide (even though GGG pretty clearly won the first outing) if they fought a trilogy and that may well by why this goes to the rubber match (barring a KO).

 

[wilddeuces]

Why cant Canelo box more? It was pretty obvious he was more skilled there.

Youre saying a lot of things that Canelo cant do but he had a lot of success doing all of them.

Really? Because after they settled into the fight by the second third of it, GGG was boxing from the outside and edging/taking the rounds. Canelo wasn't having some overwhelming "success". He managed to get on even terms sometimes. His best rounds were the second, third, and a couple of the final rounds. In those cases I would say that "success" could be more clearly ascribed. But he just wasn't consistent enough. When GGG was getting started Canelo looked comfortable and picked up some points early. Then in the closing frame, GGG abandoned his jab and that meant Canelo could capitalize (which he did, credit to him).

Canelo fought a very good fight considering his opponent. I'm not saying that Canelo boxed poorly anywhere in the fight. But a straight up boxing match in the centre of the ring wasn't where he was banking all these decisive rounds. Let's be clear on that. He was not more skilled there. No way. No how.

 

[JayE]

I see where you are coming from but here are some considerations, fwiw:

1. He struggles against a good jabber so he won't look decisive there. GGG was successful any time when it was a boxing fight. Look at the large middle portion of the fight when it was more or less GGG boxing Canelo. Canelo couldn't get around that jab, and he wanted to be able to work around GGG's power punches so he could slide in his own sharp counters.
2. He needs GGG's respect so he wants to make the landed shots count. I really think he earned GGG's respect in terms of applied power. He can't let up or GGG will keep going.
3. He is already comfortable at the weight. Going up to 164 and then being at 160. The weight isn't an issue, his body type, and fast twitch muscles are just always going to put a burden on his stamina.

Previously, I had said that given the nature of the two men, their fights would always be close, and I still stand by that. I don't see either guy winning some landslide (even though GGG pretty clearly won the first outing) if they fought a trilogy and that may well by why this goes to the rubber match (barring a KO).

I don't agree that Golovkin was successful whenever it was a "boxing fight". He was successful, mostly, when Canelo took breaks to conserve energy. I don't think either fighter will make major strategic adjustments. Canelo definitely can apply a similar strategy better than he did last time out, though. Golovkin needs to find a way to make Canelo pay more during his periods of inactivity and when he's backed up against the ropes.

As it stands, I lean slightly towards Golovkin doing making Canelo pay a little more during his periods of rest, but I'm counting on Golovkin not showing too much more rust and that Canelo won't make appreciable improvements on his cardio. Either way, I see another very close fight (it wasn't pretty clear that GGG won the first time out, at all, in my view, and I had money on a Golovkin decision).

 

[wilddeuces]

The jab is always Canelo's problem. It's a problem for him, because he doesn't give him much to bite on. If a fighter is smart with his distance/defense when jabbing, Canelo gets on traction. So, from what I saw, I saw GGG doing well in those cases. I truly think it was about more than the breaks, and if the breaks were such a factor, then it was because they were forced on him due to the level of exertion had he to apply. Nevertheless, I understand where you are coming from, and I do agree, there won't be some massive turnover in strategy from either man, but I do think that Canelo's changes won't be as telling in the rematch at GGG's (if indeed they both seek to make the requisite adjustments). GGG had a much easier argument for the decision for Canelo, so, for me, was the more "clear" winner of the two.

I do appreciate your typically even opinion, so for me, this is a good chat. Thanks!

Edit: @JayE

 

[PUO3]

Really? Because after they settled into the fight by the second third of it, GGG was boxing from the outside and edging/taking the rounds. Canelo wasn't having some overwhelming "success". He managed to get on even terms sometimes. His best rounds were the second, third, and a couple of the final rounds. In those cases I would say that "success" could be more clearly ascribed. But he just wasn't consistent enough. When GGG was getting started Canelo looked comfortable and picked up some points early. Then in the closing frame, GGG abandoned his jab and that meant Canelo could capitalize (which he did, credit to him).

Canelo fought a very good fight considering his opponent. I'm not saying that Canelo boxed poorly anywhere in the fight. But a straight up boxing match in the centre of the ring wasn't where he was banking all these decisive rounds. Let's be clear on that. He was not more skilled there. No way. No how.

I dont know see what you see tbh. Canelo dictated how that fight went. The times Golovkin got to do his thing were only when Canelo decided to take a breather.

 

[wilddeuces]

I dont know see what you see tbh. Canelo dictated how that fight went. The times Golovkin got to do his thing were only when Canelo decided to take a breather.

I respect your opinion but disagree completely. There's no way Canelo dictated the fight because if that were the case he would have made the rounds more obvious cases for himself. The fact that the draw was so controversial and so highly disputed does negate the argument that he was dictating much. And, taken to the extreme, had he been dictating the terms of the bout, he would have debilitated or knocked out Golovkin (Fullmer vs Ray Robinson - I forget which number - for example was a careful set up for a KO blow; terms were dictated clearly there). In competitive fights, neither fighter is dictating the terms for as long as you said Canelo did.