In order to win, Canelo is going to have to fight 3 minutes of every round. He has shown an increased ability to do that in recent years (and maybe the stamina criticisms were overstated in the first place). I think it will be difficult for Canelo to keep up with GGG's workrate though, especially if they start exchanging.
So Canelo's best bet is to go to GGG's body, and force GGG to be the one to take the breaks. Canelo is obviously capable of that, but will he continue a commitment to body work when he starts eating counters? He might have to leave himself a bit open to get that body work in, so a big part of this comes down to how comfortable he is taking the power in return.
Canelo's best opponents have been smaller guys, and his worst opponents have been bigger. That does not inspire confidence leading up to the GGG fight.
So a few years ago I would have picked GGG without hesitation, but Canelo has gotten bigger and a whole lot better over the last few years while GGG has started to show some age. I'm still going with GGG, but it's close to 50-50 in my mind now.
I'll even predict that the fight is a 6-6 type of fight, with GGG landing a knockdown to pull ahead on the cards. One thing I'll say is that Canelo better not lean on the ropes like he tends to do from time to time. He could find himself in seriously trouble doing that against a guy like GGG, even if he is able to slip and block most of the punches.
