Will Other States Follow California's Lead?
This isn't California's first
attempt at shuffling its spot on the primary calendar, and if history is any indication,
other states could follow suit.
"When you think about the jockeying for position in the primary process, it’s important to remember that the more things change, the more they stay the same," Schmidt says. "California moving the primary forward simply moves the dates of the primaries forward because other states will come in in front of them."
There's plenty of time for states to alter their own primary calendars. As long as a state doesn't schedule its primary ahead of the four early states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida — the change goes up for approval by the DNC and the RNC. Their rules and bylaws committees will make decisions on the 2020 nominating process next year, and will focus on delegate selection in 2019. Experts say, expect most states to wait until the rules are set to make changes to their own primary calendars.
"What's different this time about California's move is that they've done it much earlier in the cycle than they have in the past," Josh Putnam, the political scientist who runs the
Frontloading HQ blog, tells Bustle.
Earlier this year, North Carolina lawmakers
tried to permanently move the state's primary from May to March, formalizing a change the state made in 2016. Putnam is keeping his eye on the states that have been willing to move around in past election cycles, or find themselves voting late in the season. "Maryland, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, those my be reasonable candidates to keep your eye on as we get closer to 2019 and legislators start marking these decisions," Putnam says.
Nevada political expert Jon Ralston sees unease in his home state. "We don’t know whether we’re going to maintain our early state status or not," Ralston says. As one of the nation's first five nominating contests, Nevada considers itself "the gateway to the west." Now, it's threatened with losing its clout.
"I just think that we’re going to be overshadowed by California, even if California is a few weeks behind us," Ralston says. "It becomes the 800-pound gorilla in the western states' primaries, and I don’t think any of the western states are going to be thrilled with it."
Kyle Kondik, the Managing Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says it's too soon to know the impact. When California held an early primary in February 2008, voters
sided with Clinton — yet Barack Obama ultimately won the nomination in June.
"It didn't help with anything, at least on the Democratic side," Kondik says. That's more likely to hold true if a lot of candidates run. Because the state doesn't award its delegates on a
"winner-take-all" basis, a few candidates could each take home a share, breaking California's political power into pieces.
Gone are the days of locking up the party's nomination after the first four state primaries, Ethan Corson, Executive Director of the Kansas Democratic Party, says. "Now, if you have a a dedicated following or even just a couple really rich people, you can continue on in the nominating process until you hit the states that you perceive to be maybe more favorable to you or to your message."