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Brexit News & Discussion v6: So It Begins...

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Arkain2K, Mar 9, 2017.

  1. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Brexit Discussion, Part 6:The Divorce Proceedings

    Brexit Discussion, Part 5: The In-Fighting


    Brexit Discussion, Part 4: The Back-Pedaling

    Brexit Discussion, Part 3: The World's Reaction to Brexit

    Brexit Discussion, Part 2: The Day After The Vote

    Brexit Discussion, Part 1: Counting Down to the Referendum
     
    #1
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017 at 7:35 PM
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  2. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Brexit Talks Are Almost Here. What Do the EU Nations Really Want?
    by Ian Wishart , Boris Groendahl , and Zoltan Simon
    March 8, 2017

    [​IMG]
    Border Force agents check the passports of passengers arriving at Gatwick Airport in London, England.


    Austria
    Key issues: ‘No free lunch,’ U.K. budget commitments

    Austria insists there should be “no free lunch” for the U.K. government in the Brexit talks and that the country must be worse off after it leaves. While the Austrians don’t have huge bilateral issues, Chancellor Christian Kern predicted a “lengthy debate” about the U.K.’s financial commitments to the bloc in a Feb. 23 interview with Bloomberg. Kern said the EU’s 60 billion-euro ($63 billion) Brexit bill would likely cause “disappointment” in the U.K. as it contrasted with the Leave camp’s pledge to British voters that exiting the bloc would save them money.

    Belgium
    Key issues: Close ties with Britain, EU unity and integration

    Belgium, one of the EU’s most open economies, is primarily concerned that U.K. ties remain as close as possible after Brexit and it stresses the need for a common negotiation by the 27 remaining members of the bloc. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel insists that EU governments must resist the temptation to engage in parallel trade talks with Britain and must not succumb to U.K. attempts to divide them. The government in Brussels seeks to shore up the push for closer integration within the EU, at different speeds if necessary, while minimizing disruption in trade with the U.K.

    Bulgaria
    Key issues: EU development aid, nationals’ rights in U.K.

    While only about 3 percent of its exports are destined for the U.K., Bulgaria is among the net beneficiaries of development aid from the EU budget. So along with protection of the rights of the nearly 60,000 Bulgarian citizens living and working in the U.K., the government in Sofia seeks continuation of the EU’s development policy without the U.K. Aid from the EU budget will be one of Bulgaria’s main priorities when it holds the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2018. Bulgaria may also try to bargain for more aid to deal with refugees crossing the border from Turkey.

    Croatia
    Key issues: Rights of Croatians in U.K., freedom of movement

    Croatia is most interested in preserving freedom of movement for its citizens living and working in the U.K. The government in Zagreb insists that Britain should not be granted any access to the European single market without protection of the bloc’s four freedoms.

    Cyprus
    Key issues: Rights of Cypriots in Britain, U.K. bases in Cyprus

    Given its history and extended ties with the U.K., Cyprus is one of the countries most exposed to Brexit. The Cypriot government wants to ensure the rights of Cypriot citizens living in the U.K. and to have a smooth transition to the new EU-Britain relationship. Cyprus puts equal weight on the rights of its citizens residing and working in two British sovereign territories on the island country, where the U.K. will continue to maintain military bases.

    Czech Republic
    Key issues: Economic ties, security, Czech nationals in the U.K.

    The Czech Republic wants the EU to maintain close relations with the U.K. in trade and security. The government in Prague seeks to preserve as much as possible the current economic ties, with Prime Minister Bobuslav Sobotka vowing to oppose tariff and non-tariff barriers. The premier is adamant that the rights of Czechs living in the U.K. must be protected. The Czechs also want a “fair financial settlement” regarding the U.K.’s contributions to the EU budget.

    Denmark
    Key issues: Farm, energy exports to the U.K., fishing rights

    Denmark’s Brexit Task Force is charged with identifying both defensive and offensive priorities. These include protecting agricultural and energy exports to the U.K., fishing rights in British waters and luring the European Medicines Agency from London.

    Estonia
    Key issues: EU solidarity, defense, close U.K. relations

    Estonia wants “as tight and good future relationship as possible” with the U.K. and will strive to maintain solidarity among the 27 EU nations when the government in Tallinn holds the EU presidency in the second half of this year. Estonia will need to put more effort into other formats of cooperation after the EU framework is no longer there to support ties, according to Matti Maasikas, the country’s chief Brexit negotiator. This is particularly true in the area of defense. Estonia will seek to keep relations with Britain as close as possible given the U.K.’s role in anchoring the NATO contingent in the country and the mixed messages coming from the Trump administration in the U.S. regarding the trans-Atlantic alliance.

    Finland
    Key issues: EU unity, freedom of movement, EU integration

    Finland’s top priority is ensuring EU unity during the divorce negotiations with Britain, with its main concern the balance of power within the EU without Britain. The government in Helsinki is adamant that even limited access to the single market requires the U.K. to accept the “four freedoms” and is on the lookout for opportunities to deepen EU integration post-Brexit.

    France
    Key issues: No favors for Britain, French citizens’ rights in U.K.

    France is adamant that the U.K. cannot expect special favors as it leaves the EU, with French presidential candidates Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon vowing exacting Brexit negotiations. At the same time, Marine Le Pen’s calls for a so-called Frexit could prompt the EU to take an even tougher stance to dissuade the French from heading to the exit, too. The government in Paris wants to ensure the rights of French citizens in the U.K. and sort out U.K.-related fishing rights in the post-Brexit world.

    Germany
    Key issues: U.K. must be worse off, no back-door industry talks

    Germany has made it clear that the U.K. will “have to settle for less” since Prime Minister May isn’t interested in staying a full member of the European single market. The government in Berlin wants to ensure a package deal without back-door negotiations by carmakers, banks and other industries. Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly appealed to German business to support her in staying tough on that stance.

    Greece
    Key issues: Agricultural exports, Greek citizens in Britain

    The Greeks’ main concern is trade, particularly exports of agricultural products to the U.K. One of their top priorities is also the preservation of social status for Greek employees and students in Britain. The government in Athens wants to protect rights related to university fees and social security for Greeks in the U.K.

    Hungary
    Key issues: Trade ties, Hungarians in U.K., EU-Britain relations

    Hungary seeks to maintain strong trade ties with Britain and, along with other central European EU members, wants its citizens who are already in the U.K. to be able to continue to work and live there without discrimination. Hungary wants the EU to be fair with Britain as it exits the bloc and to avoid the “suicidal strategy” of alienating Britain, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in an interview this week. The EU should strive for trade relations that give Britain better terms than other countries offer, he said.

    Ireland
    Key issues: Close U.K. ties, no hard border, common travel area

    Ireland wants to have a relationship as close as possible to its pre-Brexit ties with the U.K. That would include no hard border with Northern Ireland and a common travel area. The government in Dublin also wants the U.K. to have as much access to the single market as possible, though insisting that Britain must allow free movement of EU citizens.

    Italy
    Key issues: Non-destructive Brexit talks, rights of Italians in the U.K.

    Italy wants to make sure its citizens living in the U.K. are treated fairly. Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni said in February after a meeting with the U.K.’s May that it was important for “negotiations not to be destructive.”

    Latvia
    Key issues: Security and defense, rights of Latvians in Britain

    Latvia’s priorities are the rights of its nationals living in Britain along with security and defense. Latvia wants the post-Brexit U.K. involved in European security policy. The U.K. will have soldiers in Estonia as part of NATO’s policy to reinforce and reassure the Baltic states.

    Lithuania
    Key issues: Lithuanians’ rights in the U.K., budget commitments

    The No. 1 priority for Lithuania is ensuring the rights of its citizens in Britain, followed by maintaining trade ties. It also is important for the government in Vilnius that the U.K. honor its budget commitments regarding various EU programs that will continue after Britain leaves the bloc, not least of all the agreed co-financing for the dismantling of the Ignalina nuclear-power plant, which Lithuania shut down due to safety concerns. Defense and security also are top issues for Lithuania and other countries in the eastern flank of NATO.

    Luxembourg
    Key issues: Economic ties, financial-services industry

    Luxembourg wants to maintain strong economic links with the U.K. and build closer ties with the City of London after Britain leaves the EU. The Grand Duchy is among continental business centers making a pitch for post-Brexit business and Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said in February that “a number of” financial-services companies have shown interest in switching operations to Luxembourg from the U.K. due to Brexit. Luxembourg also is interested in bidding to host the European Banking Authority.

    Malta
    Key issues: ‘Balanced’ Brexit deal, U.K. worse off after exit

    Malta, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency in the first half of 2017, wants a Brexit agreement that is “good and fair,” Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said in a Bloomberg interview on Thursday. “The deal cannot be superior to membership” in the bloc, he said.

    The Netherlands
    Key issues: Trade and security, limited Brexit damage to both sides

    The Dutch government is most keen to protect its interests in trade and security but also wants to limit the damage as much as possible to both sides in the divorce. With domestic issues taking the fore in looming national elections, Brexit has gotten little focus in the campaign.

    Poland
    Key issues: Rights of Poles in Britain, defense, development aid

    Poland, the biggest exporter of workers to the U.K., is adamant about protecting the rights of the nearly 1 million Polish nationals living and working in Britain. And Poland counts on Britain’s continued commitment to NATO. With Poland the top recipient of EU development funds, the government in Warsaw also will push hard for an arrangement that won’t dramatically cut the bloc’s development-aid budget. While the EU’s largest eastern economy is trying to lure companies including HSBC Holdings Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to move jobs from the financial-market hub in London, it also wants a deal that won’t hurt its trade with the U.K.

    Portugal
    Key issues: Preserving U.K. relations, ensuring EU citizens’ rights

    Portugal sees the rights of EU citizens in the U.K. as the No. 1 priority for the other 27 nations in the bloc. The government in Lisbon wants to preserve its long-standing bilateral relationship with the U.K. Portugal plans to apply to host the European Medicines Agency in Lisbon.

    Romania
    Key issues: Close EU-U.K. cooperation, rights of Romanians in Britain

    Romania wants to make sure the U.K.’s exit agreement ensures that the rights of Romanians living in the U.K. are fully protected. President Klaus Iohannis has insisted on the importance of a negotiation as soon as possible of the aspects regarding the rights of the EU citizens in Britain. Romania supports a continued close cooperation of the EU with the U.K. after Brexit.

    Slovakia
    Key issues: Rights of EU citizens in Britain

    Slovakia will fight hard to protect the rights of its citizens living and working in the U.K., with Prime Minister Robert Fico saying the Brexit talks must prevent the creation of “second-class citizens” from the nationals of other EU member states now in the U.K.

    Slovenia
    Key issues: Steadfast EU in Brexit talks, minimal impact on EU budget

    Slovenia is steadfast that the EU be firm in the negotiations with the U.K., fearing that allowing any “cherry-picking” could spur nationalist movements in other members of the bloc. The government in Ljubljana also wants to ensure that Britain’s exit has minimal impact on the EU’s budget.

    Spain
    Key issues: Rights of Spanish citizens in U.K., Brits in Spain

    Spain’s main priority is removing uncertainties for the more than 130,000 of its nationals living in the U.K. and about the 800,000 Britons living Spain at least part the year. Keeping trade, tourism and investment flows also is key for Spain as it battles to reduce its budget deficit. Spain is standing by its request to have co-sovereignty over Gibraltar. Any concession to Scotland would raise concerns in Spain that separatists in Catalonia could use it to build their case in the international arena.

    Sweden
    Key issues: No increase in budget contributions, unified EU in talks

    Sweden is most concerned that Britain’s exit from the EU does not lead to an increase in contributions to the bloc’s budget by the remaining member states. But the government in Stockholm says EU countries should avoid pitching individual agendas, which could risk undermining the bloc’s position in Brexit talks. The Swedes have warned that excessively aggressive corporate tax cuts on Britain’s part would complicate the divorce negotiations. At the same time, Swedish Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson argues that the EU shouldn’t try to punish the U.K. in order to deter other EU states from leaving.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/brexit-bulletin-what-the-eu-really-wants
     
    #2
  3. WhitebeltXL On a Quest for Silver Cowboy Boots

    WhitebeltXL
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245

    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...reedom-of-movement-says-eus-brexit-negotiator

    Britons should keep EU rights post-Brexit - Guy Verhofstadt

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #3
  4. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Germany demands more ambition from EU partners over post-Brexit future
    March 7, 2017

    [​IMG]


    Germany, the EU's most powerful state, said Tuesday it was dissatisfied with a declaration being prepared for a landmark Rome summit on the bloc's post-Brexit future later this month.

    The European Union leaders at 27 - minus Britain's Theresa May - say they want the March 25 summit in Rome marking the 60th anniversary of the EU's founding treaties to be a ringing reaffirmation of EU unity.

    But preparations so far have instead highlighted sharp differences.

    "I am anything but satisfied with the current state of preparation" of the Rome declaration, Michael Roth, a junior foreign office minister, told reporters in Brussels.

    EU leaders must make clear the bloc was more than just the single market but had higher ambitions reflected in shared values of democracy and rule of law, Roth said.

    This was especially so for "too many young people who risk being caught up by nationalism and populism," he said as he met with counterparts to discuss the Rome preparations.

    Stressing his views were shared by the "whole German government," Roth said the EU had to offer them a real future.

    "We have to make clear ... that we stand for growth and employment ... we have to deliver significantly more than has been the case until now."

    Germany's criticism comes after Slovak Premier Robert Fico last week slammed preparations for the Rome summit as "pathetic."

    The summit was meant to send a clear signal that as the bloc celebrates its 60th birthday it has a future despite Brexit and growing eurosceptic sentiment.

    European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker last week laid out five options for Rome to consider, ranging from doing nothing, returning some powers to member states to creating a "multi-speed" Europe to allow much faster integration for those who want to forge ahead.

    France and Germany favour Juncker's "multi-speed" option but others, such as the Visegrad group of Eastern European states - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia - fear they could be left behind.

    https://www.thelocal.de/20170307/ge...tion-from-eu-partners-over-post-brexit-future
     
    #4
  5. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Brexit may offer opportunities for Australia as Britain shifts focus to former colonies
    By James Glenday

    [​IMG]
    For some, Brexit offers a chance to right a "historic wrong", the decision to cut Commonwealth trade ties.
     
    #5
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2017
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  6. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Nicola Sturgeon's last-ditch bid to derail Brexit if Scotland is not offered special treatment in negotiations
    By Simon Johnson & Gordon Rayner
    12 March 2017
    [​IMG]
    Nicola Sturgeon has suggested Autumn 2018 would be a good time for another independence referendum

     
    #6
  7. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Theresa May rules out Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a new Scottish independence referendum before Brexit, as Lords pass landmark Brexit bill following MP's vote
    13 Mar 2017

    [​IMG]

     
    #7
  8. PolishHeadlock Putin Belt

    PolishHeadlock
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    Only like 4 of those 27 are actual countries imo.
     
    #8
  9. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Some are the size of cities and wield much less economic/business/military strength than their neighbors, but a vote is a vote, and all deals must be unanimously approved by all members.

    Now that it clears who wants what, the Brexit team would be wise to pick up the phone to address the little guys' concern and shores up their supports right now before the official negotiation begins.
     
    #9
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  10. snakedafunky Brown Belt

    snakedafunky
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    I would assume Germany had the same idea already. We have strongarmed the EU pretty good the last 5 years or so. There is a lot of concession Germany could make to those countries.
    Specially, the ones that have a hard time under the budget rules. Outside of a renegade Belgium region I can't see them not falling in line.

    The only real issue I could see is with countries like Poland that have a lot of people working in the UK. And Spain probably want's to keep all those UK Expat.
     
    #10
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  11. MayhemMonkey ... Im kind of a big deal!

    MayhemMonkey
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    bring on #indyref2

    Scotland should be free to decide its own future
     
    #11
  12. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    There is one other important thing that the U.K can still provide to Eastern Europe that the Germans and their crumbling equipment could not: Security.

    Of course, this could change quickly if the British government continue their cost-cutting rampage after they finish with stripping the Royal Navy to the bone.
     
    #12
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  13. WhitebeltXL On a Quest for Silver Cowboy Boots

    WhitebeltXL
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    It's sad to see the Guardian has gone full retard with what they'll allow published on their site.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/14/wales-independence-leave-uk-scotland

    It’s time for Wales to start talking about independence

    Rah Rah Rah! Let's leave England, MAKE WALES GREAT (again?)....until you find out that England is subsidising your entire fucking country. Good plan, moron. Christ knows how this person is qualified to write pieces for a national newspaper.
     
    #13
  14. Metusalemi Brown Belt

    Metusalemi
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    Finland

    Crumpets.
     
    #14
  15. Armbars Red Belt

    Armbars
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    That little porridge goblin sturgeon is like that annoying spoilt cousin that never shuts the fuck up.
     
    #15
  16. purist White Belt

    purist
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    lol at Leanne Wood. Has she already forgotten the Tories got more than double the amount of Welsh votes than PC in the last election?
     
    #16
  17. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    I say give everybody what they ask for, then let them deal with the end result.

    ----

    Scotland’s independence vote will complicate Brexit in some very interesting ways
    By Alison Johnston | March 15, 2017

    [​IMG]

    On Monday, Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon delivered the political bombshell that Westminster elites were expecting, albeit much sooner than anticipated. She announced that she is introducing a vote to the Scottish Parliament for a second Scottish Independence referendum. Sturgeon anticipates holding the vote sometime between autumn 2018 and spring of 2019. Here’s what you need to know.

    The vote is tied to Brexit

    The European Union has poured cold water on Scotland’s ambitions

    However, Scottish membership could have benefits for Europe

    The Scottish referendum may shape the negotiations

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...very-interesting-ways/?utm_term=.c15c76121c7b
     
    #17
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
  18. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    European Commission 'agrees £48bn Brexit divorce bill'
    Negotiations for a potential trade deal will only start after Brexit agreement struck, concludes bloc

    [​IMG]
    Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for the preparation and conduct of the talks with the UK

    Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc.


    The figure was purportedly agreed at a meeting of member states, although Sky News reported that France and Germany called for the UK to be charged at least €70bn.

    Britain is committed to tens of billions in spending on EU-wide projects up until 2020, as well as the pensions of officials.

    Negotiations for a potential trade agreement would only start when the final Brexit bill is reached, the meeting concluded.

    It has been the firm position of several senior EU figures that trade talks can only happen after an exit deal is struck and a divorce payment agreed.

    Theresa May had held out hope that separate talks and trade negotiations could be held simultaneously.

    Mr Barnier announced in December that the UK would be charged £50bn for “outstanding liabilities” upon triggering Article 50, which will begin formal talks with EU leaders over the terms of Brexit.

    He told colleagues at the time the that UK must continue to pay “tens of billions” every year into the EU budget until 2020.

    The bill includes the UK’s share of contributions to EU pensions, loan guarantees and cost of UK-based projects.

    MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour to pass a Brexit bill earlier this week, keeping Ms May on track to meet her March deadline for triggering Article 50.

    During the meeting it was also decided that talks for agreeing reciprocal rights for EU citizens would have to start from “ground zero”.

    Ms May has come under pressure from within her own party to secure the rights of EU citizens at an early stage of the Brexit talks and has offered assurances it was a priority.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html
     
    #18
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
  19. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

    Arkain2K
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    Brexit: Three key things to watch as article 50 is triggered
    Theresa May will pull the trigger on March 29th but real action won’t start until late May
    By Cliff Taylor | March 20, 2017

    [​IMG]

    It is not quite accurate to say nothing much is going to happen after article 50 is triggered next week, but the huge excitement built up around “the date” is likely to prove misplaced. All that is happening is that Britain is following the terms set down in the Lisbon Treaty to trigger formal exit talks. The EU will then take some time to finalise its negotiating position.

    Expect the real action to start in late May or early June, when the two sides sit down to start the talks. The first potentially contentious issue on the agenda will be the price Britain must pay to “buy itself out” of existing EU commitments. Suggestions from the EU side that this bill could reach €60 billion will be strongly resisted by Britain.

    This will be a “long game”. Britain will not actually leave the EU until early 2019, ideally having tied up a mutually acceptable exit deal. It is then likely to be some years thereafter before it has finalised a trade deal with the EU, if indeed it is able to do so.

    Up to early 2019, Britain will remain a full EU member and nothing will change beyond the exclusion of its representatives from some EU meetings where the approach of the remaining 27 to Brexit is discussed.

    So what do we look out for as article 50 is triggered and in the immediate aftermath?

    1. What hints does it give on the British negotiating position?

    2. What indications are there of the EU negotiating stance?

    3. How will markets react?

    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...to-watch-as-article-50-is-triggered-1.3017343
     
    #19
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  20. JDragon War Room Patriot

    JDragon
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    #20

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