BREXIT Discussion v2.0: In Stunning Decision, Britain Votes to Leave the European Union.

Status
Not open for further replies.

Arkain2K

Si vis pacem, para bellum
@Steel
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
33,409
Reaction score
5,661
Thread Index from the Brexit Discussion v1.0 for those who still needs to catch up on the Referendum action:

Counting Down to Brexit:

Thread Index:
----------------------------

In stunning decision, Britain votes to leave the E.U.

By Griff Witte, Karla Adam and Dan Balz
June 23, 2016


screen.png

LONDON — British voters have defied the will of their leaders, foreign allies, experts and much of the political establishment by opting to rupture this country’s primary connection to Europe in a stunning result that will radiate vast economic, political and security uncertainty across the globe.

The voters’ decision to abandon Britain’s decades-old membership in the European Union and its precursors is expected to jolt markets worldwide on Friday and unsettle Western capitals. When the BBC called the result at dawn in London Friday, the pound had already plummeted to its lowest level against the dollar in decades.

The result is perhaps the most dramatic to date in a wave of populist and nationalist uprisings that are seizing both sides of the Atlantic and overturning all notions of what is politically possible.

For months, political and economic elites had looked on with growing apprehension as the U.K. flirted with a choice – popularly known as Brexit -- that experts had warned could lead to global recession and a rip in the Western alliance.

But most analysts had predicted this pragmatically-minded country would ultimately back away from the abyss, and opt to keep Britain in an organization regarded as an essential pillar of the economic and political order.

Instead, a majority of British voters heeded the call of pro-Brexit campaigners to declare independence from what many here regard as an oppressive Brussels bureaucracy that enables mass migration to the country’s shores.

As results poured in through Thursday night and into the early hours of Friday, the “remain” camp was increasingly despairing, while “leave” advocates expressed a growing confidence that their side had pulled off a shocking victory.

Results from much of the country had yet to be counted as of 4 a.m. local time. But the BBC reported that "leave" had taken an insurmountable lead amid stronger-than-expected margins for those advocating a British exit.

The results came after 15 hours of voting, from the remote Scottish isles to the tip of Gibraltar. They suggest that Britain may be even more deeply polarized than was previously thought, with huge gulfs between the views in thriving metropolitan centers such as London and those in struggling, post-industrial areas in other parts of England.

As local authorities announced results, they reflected a tantalizingly close vote that sent markets swinging wildly between optimism that the country would stay in, the preferred choice of investors, and pessimism that Britain had just voted to get out.

After initially rising, the pound plunged in international trading as jittery investors prepared for a scenario that had not been priced into market calculations.

As the hours ticked by, there was a dawning realization that Britain could be on the verge of becoming the first to leave the 28-member E.U. In television interviews, “remain” supporters looked stricken as they took in the results.

The pound’s sudden fall came only hours after it had surged to a 2016 high off news that an opinion poll conducted Thursday by the research firm YouGov showed “remain” with a four-point lead.

The results of that survey coincided with comments by anti-E.U. firebrand Nigel Farage, who told Sky News that it “looks like ‘remain’ will edge it,” suggesting he was ready for a loss.

Hours after conceding defeat, Farage declared victory at 4 a.m., telling cheering supporters that June 23 would always be remembered as "our independence day."

Although Britain may not actually leave the E.U. for years, Thursday’s vote fires the starting gun on what is widely expected to be a messy divorce proceeding as Britain and E.U. officials begin untangling the vast web of connections between this island nation and the other 27 members of the bloc.

Thursday’s outcome will be a crippling blow to Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned vigorously for voters to stay in the E.U. and had cast the referendum as a choice between an insular, intolerant “little England” and an outward-looking, pluralistic Great Britain.

Having failed to convince a majority of voters on such a fundamental issue, he is expected to come under intense pressure to resign.

Cameron initially promised the referendum in 2013 in a bid to unite the country, and especially his Conservative Party, behind a common stance on an issue that has divided public opinion here for decades.

Instead of resolving the question once and for all with a vote to stay in, Cameron has been left with the raw wounds of a campaign that exposed more clearly than ever the fault lines in British society.

Those fractures run straight through the ranks of his government.

When Cameron first set a date for the vote back in February, he may have expected a relatively easy victory. But the campaign soon went off script, as Justice Secretary Michael Gove and London Mayor Boris Johnson – friends and sparring partners of Cameron’s since his days at Oxford -- both declared their intention to campaign for “out.”

The bombastic and populist-minded Johnson will now be seen as the most likely successor to Cameron if and when the prime minister is pushed from his perch at 10 Downing Street.

“I think the Boris Johnson momentum will be unstoppable,” said Steven Fielding, a professor of political history at the University of Nottingham. “Cameron will try to find a dignified exit. But it’s not clear how long the backbenchers will give him to do that.”

With his February defection from Cameron’s pro-E.U. call, Johnson instantly became the face of the “leave” campaign, and he barnstormed the country challenging voters to make June 23 the country’s independence day.

The “leave” campaign found a compelling rallying cry with its call for voters to “Take Back Control,” a slogan that resonated among an electorate ill at ease with record levels of immigration – much of it from Europe under the E.U.’s free movement policy.

Polls suggested that “leave” may have overplayed its hand with its reliance on what critics saw as increasingly nativist rhetoric. That was particularly true after the killing last week of pro-E.U. lawmaker Jo Cox, a murder that appeared to awaken a passion in “remain” supporters that had been previously lacking, as well as a backlash against xenophobic aspects of the “leave” camp.

A “leave” lead last week in the polls turned into a dead heat. Surveys released Thursday as Britons votes had shown “remain” with a clear edge, results that cheered investors and boosted markets across Europe and Asia.

But as with last year’s British general election, the polls were badly wrong, apparently unable to capture the mood of an increasingly defiant electorate

The prevailing tone of the campaign on either side was fear and loathing, with neither venturing for long into hope or aspiration.

That spirit mirrored the angry mood of voters across the Atlantic, in the United States, and surprised even close observers of a nation that sees itself as deeply pragmatic and rational.

“Notions of Britain as a deferential, consensual society at ease with itself have been thrown out the window,” Fielding said. “This campaign has revealed a very profound mistrust among a substantial segment of society toward conventional political authority. The E.U. became a lightning rod for mistrust of politics more broadly.”

The vote split the country along essential lines: Old versus young. Provincial versus metropolitan. Scotland versus England. Native-born Britons versus immigrants.

The bitter divisions between the two camps – and within the country – played out right until the very end. In the closing hours of the vote, the “Leave” campaign emailed supporters to warn them of the potential for “people in London to force you and your family to stay in the E.U.”

The plea featured a photo of voters lined up outside a polling station in “a leafy London suburb,” and urged those in “the heartlands of the country” to phone their friends and remind them to vote.

Turnout on Thursday was expected to be higher than last year’s general election, when two-thirds of eligible Britons cast ballots. They did so Thursday at thousands of polling stations nationwide – from the far Scottish isles to the tip of Gibraltar – in venues that included schools, church halls, tea rooms and laundromats.

In the small town of Birstall in West Yorkshire, voters streamed into a library where, exactly a week ago, Cox was murdered on her way to meet with constituents. A crowd of hundreds held hands during a minute of silence at 12:50 p.m. – the time of the attack – and chanted “We stand together.”

As the first votes were cast nationwide — with the often-variable British weather running the gamut from a torrential downpour in London to sunny, clear skies in Scotland — anxiety was the prevailing mood.

Hilary Clarke, a 45-year-old stay-at-home mom, was the first to vote at a southwest London polling station. She said she would use her stubby pencil to check "remain" on her ballot.

“If I had been confident, I wouldn’t be standing in the rain at 7 in the morning,” she said as she sheltered beneath a colorful umbrella. "The reason I’m first in the queue is I’m going straight to the airport to go to Barcelona, and I may not return if vote goes the wrong way.”

Clarke, who had endured a sleepless night tuned to the cracks of thunder and the cries of woken children, said she could not understand the logic of those pushing for "leave."

"I can see that sometimes it seems we are hemorrhaging money to the E.U.," she said. "But at the same time, we seem to get so much more back than we give. Even if you’re disagreeing with what’s said at the table, it’s better to have a place at it."

But for "leave" voters, Britain's four decades of membership in the European Union and its precursors have only dragged the country down.

Andreas Hajialexandrou, a 48-year-old businessman of Greek Cypriot heritage, said the country could simply not withstand the impact of record numbers of immigrants from elsewhere in Europe.

“There are pressures on local services. I speak to our local [doctors] and they are just swamped,” he said. “The question is, how long can you support that level of immigration?”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...466fb0-34a7-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html



Britain votes to leave EU in historic divorce
By Guy Faulconbridge and Alistair Smout
June 23, 2016


_90079920_80608d01-4662-4c8f-82ba-4e8f804ad6d5.jpg

Britain has voted to leave the European Union, the BBC said based on voter tallies from Thursday's referendum, an outcome that would set the country on an uncertain path and deal the largest setback to European efforts to forge greater unity since World War Two.

World financial markets dived as counting from 304 of 382 areas showed a 51.5/48.5 split for leaving. Sterling suffered its biggest one-day fall of 9.4 percent against the dollar on market fears the decision will hit investment in the world's 5th largest economy, raise questions over London's role as a global financial capital, and usher in months of political limbo.

The euro slumped nearly four percent against the dollar on concerns a ‘Brexit’ vote would do wider economic and political damage to what would become a 27-member union. Investors poured into safe haven assets including gold, and the yen surged.

In an early mark of international concern, Japan's top currency diplomat Masatsugu Asakawa said he would consult with Finance Minister Taro Aso on how to respond to the market moves, describing the foreign exchange moves as very rough.

Yet there was euphoria among Britain's eurosceptic forces, claiming a victory they styled as a protest against British political leaders, big business and foreign leaders including Barack Obama who had urged Britain to stay in the bloc.

"Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom," said Nigel Farage, leader of the eurosceptic UK Independence Party.

"If the predictions are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people...Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day."

He called the EU a "doomed project".

Asked if Prime Minister David Cameron, who called the referendum in 2013 and campaigned to stay in the bloc, should resign if Britain voted for Brexit, Farage said: "Immediately."

Quitting the EU could cost Britain access to the EU's trade barrier-free single market and mean it must seek new trade accords with countries around the world. President Barack Obama says it would be at the "back of a queue" for a U.S. pact.

The EU for its part will emerge economically and politically weakened, facing the departure not only of its most free-market proponent but also a member country that wields a U.N. Security Council veto and runs a powerful army. In one go, the bloc will lose around a sixth of its total economic output.

Cameron is expected to formally report the result to his European counterparts within days and prepare negotiations for the first exit by a member state from the EU -- an exit he has said would be irreversible.

The British leader called the referendum in 2013 in a bid to head off pressure from local eurosceptics, including within his own party. Initially billed as an easy ride, the vote has now put his political future on the line. Party ally Boris Johnson, the former London mayor who became the most recognizable face of the "leave" camp, is now widely tipped to seek his job.

Opinion polls had see-sawed throughout an acrimonious four-month campaign, but the Remain camp edged ahead last week after a pro-EU member of parliament, Jo Cox, was shot and stabbed to death. The attack shocked Britons and raised questions about whether the tone of the debate was fuelling intolerance and hatred.

In the end though, the pro-EU camp was powerless to stop a tide of anti-establishment feeling and disenchantment with a Europe that many Britons see as remote, bureaucratic and mired in permanent crises.

TORN APART

Britain, which joined the then European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973, has always been an ambivalent member. A firm supporter of free trade, tearing down internal economic barriers and expanding the EU to take in ex-communist eastern states, it opted out of joining the euro single currency or the Schengen border-free zone.

Cameron’s ruling Conservatives in particular have risked being torn apart by a slow by steady rise in euroscepticism ever since differences over Europe triggered the ousting of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1990.

World leaders including Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, NATO and Commonwealth governments had all urged a "Remain” vote, saying Britain would be stronger and more influential in the EU than outside.

Yet the four-month campaign has been among the divisive ever waged in Britain, with accusations of lying and scare-mongering on both sides and rows on immigration which critics said at times unleashed overt racism.

It also revealed deeper splits in British society, with the pro-Brexit side drawing support from millions of voters who felt left behind by globalization and believed they saw no benefits from Britain's ethnic diversity and free-market economy.

The murder last week of lawmaker Jo Cox, a former aid worker and ardent Remain campaigner, by a man shouting "Britain first" shocked the country and gave the pro-EU camp a temporary boost.

But in the end, concerns over uncontrolled immigration, loss of sovereignty, remote rule from Brussels and a protest vote from working class northern voters appear to have trumped almost unanimous warnings of the economic perils of going it alone.

"People are concerned about how they have been treated with austerity and how their wages have been frozen for about seven years," said John McDonnell, finance spokesman for the opposition Labour Party, which had favoured a Remain vote.

"A lots of people's grievances have come out and we have got to start listening to them."

Surveys on public attitudes across the EU have for years shown growing disenchantment with European integration, a project that began in the 1950s as a common market for steel and coal but which over the years offered members the chance to join up to a single currency and do away with old national borders.

Yet while it has become a feature of everyday life seen in everything from EU-sponsored student exchanges to rules on mobile telephone roaming charges, the EU lost public support over its handling of the 2009 sovereign debt crisis that inflicted painful austerity on much of the south of the continent and left many citizens in northern countries resentful at having to fund bailouts.

Right-wing British eurosceptics seized on the euro zone crisis to argue that Britain was “shackled to a corpse”.

Aside from Denmark-ruled Greenland, which left the EEC in 1985 after a row over fishing rights, Britain is the first country to leave the EU, and even EU officials say it takes the continent into uncharted territory.

EU affairs ministers and ambassadors from member states gather in Luxembourg by 10 a.m. (0800 GMT) for routine talks that will provide the first chance for many to react. A regular EU summit has been pushed back to next Tuesday and Wednesday, when Cameron may trigger Article 50 of the EU's treaty, the legal basis for a country to leave, setting in motion two years of divorce negotiations.

Even less clear at this stage is what sort of relationship Britain will seek to negotiate with the EU once it has left.

To retain access to the single market, vital for its giant financial services sector, London would have to adopt all EU regulation without having a say in its shaping, and pay a substantial contribution to Brussels coffers for market access, as Norway and Switzerland do. EU officials have said UK-based banks and financial companies would lose automatic “passport” access to sell services across Europe if Britain ceased to apply the EU principles of free movement of goods, capital, services and people.

Aside from trade, huge questions now face the millions of British expatriates who live freely elsewhere in the bloc and enjoy equal access to health and other benefits, as well as some 2 million EU citizens who live and work in Britain.

Core founding members of the EU such as France and Germany will be wary of making life too easy for Britain for fear of encouraging eurosceptics across the continent to call for referendums in their countries.

French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron said last weekend that "when you're out, you're out", insisting Britain could expect no preferential treatment. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has issued similar warnings.

Both countries, whose painful post-war reconciliation formed the basis for the future union of Europe, must now deal with buoyant anti-EU parties at home, with the Alternative fuer Deutschland in Germany and the Front National in France.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN0Z902K
 
Last edited:
Awesome. Anarchy. Lol not really.

In many ways this is bad for America and Israel and other allies. No longer can we expect to have a strong ally in the EU who influences and shut down anti American or anti Israel type legislation.

In any case. I hope Greece leaves next since they don't pull their own weight.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
But as with last year’s British general election, the polls were badly wrong, apparently unable to capture the mood of an increasingly defiant electorate

Yep. Polls were used in an attempt to diminish the popular opinion, rather than reflect it.
 
The left just got skeeted on.

All week you heard the REMAIN campaign had this in the bag and they was going to lose to racists and xenophobes....oops.


Consider the Left wing butthurt a preview for when Trump wins in the US
 
Even if all goes wrong, I have to commend the Brits for their courage to take the leap.

This is going to be an exciting summer for the EU, and an exiting summer for the UK.
 
What will happen now that Britain has voted to leave the E.U.
By Adam Taylor
June 23 at 11:55 PM


When will the final results come in?

Polls closed about 10 p.m. local time (5 p.m. Eastern) on Thursday, and no formal exit poll will be released. This means that only when the first vote counts start being released about midnight U.K. time, will we get our first picture of what the result might look like. Votes will be counted until one side reaches a number that is mathematically unbeatable, which may take a while given how close the vote is expected to be. It's thought that from early morning U.K. time, perhaps about 2 a.m. for those of us on Eastern time, the final outcome of the vote should be clear.

This is a little complicated. No country has ever voted to leave the European Union before, and it's not clear how things should proceed.

What we know is that British Prime Minister David Cameron will be expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which is the mechanism for a country to leave the European Union. We don't know exactly when he would do so, although he has suggested that he would trigger it immediately, and E.U. leaders would push him to do so quickly.

It is possible that Cameron could opt not to invoke Article 50, perhaps instead repealing the 1972 European Communities Act and withdrawing from the European Union unilaterally. However, such a move probably would anger many E.U. member states with which Britain will soon be seeking a deal and force Britain to immediately legislate to replace E.U. laws with no transition period.

How does Article 50 work?

The article sets out how Britain would negotiate its terms for leaving the European Union. Britain would not negotiate directly with member states. Instead the member states would meet among themselves as the European Council and agree on a framework. Britain would then negotiate on the technical details with the European Commission. The European Parliament also will have a say, giving consent on the deal.

Sounds complicated? It is. And it's unprecedented, so it's not clear exactly what it looks like or how long it would take. The article clearly states that a country will have two years to reach an agreement on the exit, during which time the country would still be governed by E.U. treaties and laws, although it will not be allowed in the decision-making process. However, if all E.U. member states agree, that deadline could be extended.

It's also worth noting that Article 50 does not have a provision that allows a country to back out of the process. And if Britain ever decides it wants to be in the European Union again, it will have to go through the same process as any other applicant country.

Then what?

Britain will have to strike new trade deals with Europe and amend its laws that were based on E.U. legislation. It will take a long time to sort all of that out.

For one thing, it's still unclear exactly what sort of relationship Britain will be able to strike with the European Union. As my colleague Griff Witte has reported, there are essentially four models ranging from what Norway or Iceland has – in which Britain would be a member of the European Economic Area and essentially keep access to the European common market – to simply no deal at all, falling back on its membership of the World Trade Organization to set terms of trading.

Many suspect that the European Union may try to "punish" Britain and deter other countries from making their own exit with a lousy deal. However, if the economic fallout is as bad as some have predicted, it's also possible that European leaders may seek to calm markets with a quick and easy deal.

Will Parliament agree?

The Brexit referendum isn't binding in itself; any deal will have to be approved by Britain's Parliament. This means that pro-remain MPs — i.e. the majority of Parliament — may try to block any deal that they think doesn't give the country enough access to the European Union. The pressure could in turn lead to calls for a new general election.

It does seem unlikely that British MPs would flagrantly go against the wishes of the electorate by totally blocking a Brexit, but they could well use their power to influence negotiations.

Will Cameron resign?

Cameron gambled by calling the referendum. If "remain" loses, he will have lost that gamble. Although the prime minister has said he would not resign in the wake of a vote for Brexit, many in Britain will expect him to resign. It's possible that he may not do so right away – he may set a timetable to step down or wait for a leadership challenge. If the economic fallout is particularly bad, he may argue that he needs to stay in office to help steer Britain back on course, a process that could take months.

Boris Johnson, the colorful former mayor of London, who was a loud voice in the Brexit campaign, is likely to be the favorite for new leader of the Conservative Party. However, his time in office may not last long. If a new leader of the Conservatives is selected, there will be pressure for the leader to call a general election.

What would happen to the financial markets?

This all means a lot of uncertainty for a considerable amount of time, and uncertainty is something markets do not like. Many expect the value of the pound to immediately drop on Friday if Britain votes out — investor George Soros has suggested a drop of 15 percent to 20 percent. The euro is also expected to lose some value in the short term at least.

Stocks also are expected to be hit, with British Chancellor George Osborne hinting this week that he could suspend trading on London's stock market on Friday if Britain votes out of Europe. The financial impact is likely to be global, with implications for American readers, too.

A wide variety of financial institutions have made dire predictions about the long-term economic effects of a Brexit. Of course, these are predictions. What will happen ultimately isn't certain, but short-term pain for Britain and others seems very likely.

What would happen to the European Union?

The vote will definitely shake the grand European vision. It will certainly provide fuel for anti-E.U. politicians all over the continent. Recent polls have shown that countries such as France and Italy want their own votes on E.U. membership, and populists such as the French National Front's Marine Le Pen have found Euroskepticism to be a powerful message to voters.

At the least, it will give the European Union another logistical problem at a time when it has many others already to deal with, including the refugee crisis, the economic issues across the euro zone and the continuing threat of Russian aggression.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...in-votes-to-leave-the-e-u/?tid=pm_world_pop_b
 
Last edited:
Utterly retarded. Now every business will put on hold any growth or investment plans.
 
Very proud of the UK. Imagine lacking confidence so badly in your country that you actually believe it cannot survive without the EU.
 
Should had turned all my pesos to dollars, oh well.
 
Even if all goes wrong, I have to commend the Brits for their courage to take the leap.

This is going to be an exciting summer for the EU, and an exiting summer for the UK.
exciting? the financial world and the UKs economy is crashing to record levels as we speak
 
Very proud of the UK. Imagine lacking confidence so badly in your country that you actually believe it cannot survive without the EU.

Cough cough*** most European states with declining populations and sideways economies.
 
I knew it is going to be a great day.

Saint George has smitten the Dragon.
 
the ppl have spoken. there are more important things than $ and the EU is by no means a smashing success or completely democratic. also not hard to see politicians wanting to take it a step further to federal.

fuck that.
 
exciting? the financial world and the UKs economy is crashing to record levels as we speak

The value of the GBP has plummeted but of course will rise to unforeseeable levels once the UK has started to reep the benefits of independent trade. Also low taxes to boot!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top