Compelling arguments, it would just make no sense for Conor to accept a fight with Tony when everyone thinks Khabib is the real man at LW. Beating Tony is a tall task and I don't think he's ready to then face Khabib or hear people talk about him facing Khabib. I think he is hoping and praying Tony somehow beats Khabib then he fights Tony. I don't think he beats Tony or Khabib. He doesn't have the cardio or the heart and Tony has them in spades. If you rewatch the Nate 2 fight Conor is running away in circles the entire time just to be able to breathe 5 rounds. Tony is better than Nate and trains a hell of a lot harder. At the end of the day Tony needs to make money so I believe he is once again signing up to fight Khabib (who says he's only interested in Tony, the real champ) for the 4th time. I don't think he's afraid of people I think he's sure as hell afraid of harming his brand and potential earning power. He needs one to lose and the other to be compromised after the fight either physically or by putting on a lackluster or unimpressive performance so he can duck them both and go onto to box somebody, retire, and cherry pick. Conor isn't defending, I don't see it. I could be wrong though, who knows. I haven't been yet though on this site about something like this.
Well that wasn't really an argument from me, just some things to consider which make me feel that Tony/Khabib isn't a foregone conclusion. But you make some good points so I'll respond to them.
I'm not so sure everyone does think of Khabib as the real man. Tony has the worse record but definitely the better wins and has been far, far more active the past few years. Plus, like it or not, Tony is the interim champ. I think it more likely if Conor had to fght one of them that it would be Tony.
Tony's a pretty interesting fight for Conor. Like Nate he is tall, rangy and has excellent stamina. He's much craftier than Nate and more varied in his attack, and presses forward more effectively in my opinion. At the same time, Tony is a very slow starter (he often starts sloppily and tightens up as fights go on) and has been rocked in a few fights due to his willingness to lead with his chin and his focus on offence. If Conor cracked him like Vannata did then Tony wouldn't see the end of the round. Tony has shown he can be hurt, so while his recovery is remarkable he can be finished by Conor. As I said, I think Conor knows this and believes he can do it.
Tony needs to make money, sure. And the UFC may be offering him a lot to fight Khabib. I'd hope so, since he'd make millions facing Conor. Even if he got $500k for Khabib guaranteed it wouldn't be worth it for what he'd be potentially passing up. Khabib is a big risk though I think Tony can beat him with pace and elbows over five rounds.
I really, really don't see any merit in the argument that Conor is waiting for one guy to take the other out. The fact is he'd still have to fight the winner. Right now he is in a position to choose his opponent - he should fight Tony, but if he said "I want Khabib" there's no way it wouldn't happen. That means right now he has the ability to select whomever he thinks is the more favourable matchup.
Conor has shown himself to be willing to take calculated risks. He fought a replacement when Aldo withdrew when he didn't need to. After beating Poirier he fought Siver when he already had a title shot against Aldo, so he could headline in Boston. He went after RDA for the LW belt. He rematched Nate at 170lbs after Nate rolled off the couch and embarrassed him. The big difference now is that Conor is insanely wealthy. And he knows the UFC needs him.
May I tell you what I'd do if I were in Conor's position? I'd tell the UFC I want a fight in September. Why? Because then I am guaranteed to fight only the once in the calendar year.
The UFC just had a terrific year in terms of earnings, but that's largely due to a couple of factors which wont be repeated, namely serious cost cutting by the new WME management and MayMac. The interest in their product actually declined in 2017 largely due to a lack of star power bringing in casual viewership. Conor knows the UFC needs him right now, and they really need him to fight multiple times in 2018 to have a good result this year. By acting like he will only fight once in the year Conor is much more likely to get the kind of money he wants to fight any potential opponent.
The UFC has created a monster in Conor by letting him do as he pleases and pumping him up and allowing him to make the kind of money he has. I'm not saying it's right for him to do as he is doing, holding a belt hostage and bragging like a spanner on social media. But it is understandable and from a risk/reward and negotiation perspective, very cunning.
