Boxing Discussion VIII

Half more unit on draw @ 21

Jack is not winning shit in Canada
 
Managed to even get some on Jack @ 4.50 towards the end...... obviously just a tiny cover which would still leave me in the red if it happens, just a little less. Praying for Adonis DEC.
 
Meh, Adonis dec would have been better.
This got me 11u only, lol.
 
Can't complain at all at that, money back from the ML bets on Adonis and the Draw @ 21.00 lands, only £15 but profit for the night. Great fight and fair call, after that battle you'd have to take Badou in the rematch but Adonis was gutsy for 40.
 
Short write up and bet since it appears people are unhappy that I don't post breakdowns for fights when nobody has asked for it.............

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First let me just say that if this was Stevenson from 3 years ago I'd pick him by KO 90% of the time, but it's not so we are left wondering if he has aged overnight at 40? Will his gas tank hold up? Is his counter left still as fast, are the fast, explosive reflexes still there? Of course being largely inactive brings a lot of questions like the above but it also means that Adonis hasn't taken a lot of damage for being 40 years old, he hasn't had to endure punishing wars and he is without doubt well rested in between fights. You can definitely look at it from both sides, Adonis who is known to be a notorious cherrypicker has taken this fight against the younger Jack, which suggests he does believe this is a very winnable fight for him, and in all honesty it could end up being his last, especially if it's an emphatic win.

Jack needs to be at the top of his game here, stick to a strict game plan of circling away from the left, mixing his shots up and not staying in the pocket too long. The battle of the lead foot will be huge here, Jack has shown to be very slick when he wins this and keeps his opponent chasing whilst he lands stabbing shots. His ring generalship is very good, he often dictates the tempo of the bout. If Jack can mix his shots well he can negate that left hand of Adonis, we've seen Adonis shell up at times when his body is being worked, which has left his feet out of place and looking a bit sloppy. The danger with this is that although Jack used this same kind of tactic well against Bute, Bute eventually started to time Jack and crack him with some solid lefts to the head and body, although a decent enough puncher; Bute's power is nothing compared to Stevenson's and if Stevenson lands one of them of Jack it could well be game over. Jack's inside game is decent, he's crafty with his forearm to create space and work the body but he can get carried away and stay in there too long which he has been punished for before.

Although 40, power is the last thing to go, so even an Adonis that looks slower explosively is a big danger with his power and timing. Stevenson is a fantastic counter puncher but can operate on the front foot too, if the Bellew fight Bellew actually had some success early on in making Stevenson miss with the left hand, he pivoted well and left Adonis searching. Adonis began to change it up, using his lead right to feint and hook in order to set up the left which then began to find it's home on the chin of Bellew. Although the right hand of 'Superman' isn't near as much a threat as his left, he's crafty with it and uses it well to set up his shots. Adonis being a southpaw also makes this interesting due to the fact we have seen Jack have a hard time against southpaws in the past, DeGale and Bute, both of who although fantastic boxers didn't carry this kind of power. Jack's best win's have all been majority decisions, splits or draw, not slating him by any means, I love watching him but although he ran through Cleverly we have to remember this was the ghost of Cleverly and I expect a majority of the top guys would have done the same.

I really hope there isn't but stylistically there is a high chance we seen a clash of heads here so even a little on the draw could be worth a shout. Southpaw vs Orthodox and both guys love to leap in with shots to the body and that is a recipe for disaster here. Stevenson can't afford to be so lazy with his low guard in this fight, he's gotten away with it against others and he does use it well when he's concentrating, his high shoulder block and roll make him a very elusive target for anyone to land a right hand on. However, we've seen him get complacent with it and get caught clean, Fonfara managed it a good few times.

For me there are a few key factors here; Adonis being the naturally bigger guy with Jack's only fight at the weight being against a shot Cleverly. Adonis' killswitch power, he's hurt much bigger guys than Jack with that textbook straight left which pierces through the guard. The southpaw stance we've seen cause Jack trouble and the his chin. Now I don't but into the whole "he's got a glass chin" crap but I do think it's questionable, which I think is a fare statement.

If Badou comes in on the top of his game and can do it up until round 8 and avoid the big shots then it's totally possible he wins by late stoppage or DEC but that's a huge IF. He could just look to young and fast for Adonis who could look very old and slow, but I just don't see that happening at this point in time. There are a few guys at Light Heavy I think beat Stevenson but Jack isn't one of them yet and it being in Canada and being promoted by Yvon Michel is a bonus for Adonis too if it does end up close on the cards.

I'm taking Stevenson @ 1.75 (I was expecting him to be around 1.50) and will wait until props are released before possibly making another play.
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Pointed out the draw, albeit for head clash reasons for than anything but it lands anyway, before anyone says I didn't tip the draw pre fight.
 
I got saved at the end suddenly the draw shot up from 8 to 21. I was trying to get something in at good odds for so long and it wasnt working because of the odds shortening
 
i had Stevenson DEC +2000 in R10 i think it was on my local bookie :eek: sucked it did not cash but still made like 4u with the draw +2000 in the 10th too
 
i had Stevenson DEC +2000 in R10 i think it was on my local bookie :eek: sucked it did not cash but still made like 4u with the draw +2000 in the 10th too
Yeah I got draw +2000 in the last round, it's crazy. It suddenly jumped from +700 to +2000 for a second and I was lucky to get something in.

Hit Stevenson DEC around +800 in round 9 or 10 but I saw it was +2000 also but I was to late haha
 
What do you guys think about this fight and these odds?

Jamie McDonnell +500 vs Naoya Inoue -700:

McDonnell is going to Japan this Friday to defend his WBA BW title against the Japanese Inoue. McDonnell at 5'10" is crazy tall for the division and he is taking on the Japanese 5'5" Inoue who is coming up from Super Flyweight and who has won 13 out of his 15 bouts inside the distance. He's a really talented boxer and has a mean left hook.

McDonnell hasn't lost since 2008 and has never lost by KO, although he didn't look good in his last couple fights and I think he should've lost to Liborio Solis.

I'm going to watch some more tape on this in the coming days, but every bit of help you guys got is welcome.
 
What do you guys think about this fight and these odds?

Jamie McDonnell +500 vs Naoya Inoue -700:

McDonnell is going to Japan this Friday to defend his WBA BW title against the Japanese Inoue. McDonnell at 5'10" is crazy tall for the division and he is taking on the Japanese 5'5" Inoue who is coming up from Super Flyweight and who has won 13 out of his 15 bouts inside the distance. He's a really talented boxer and has a mean left hook.

McDonnell hasn't lost since 2008 and has never lost by KO, although he didn't look good in his last couple fights and I think he should've lost to Liborio Solis.

I'm going to watch some more tape on this in the coming days, but every bit of help you guys got is welcome.

ime, japanese judges are excellent in both mma and boxing, a possibe robbery should not factor in your decision. UK money is also pretty strong, crow would have more of an idea on how he thinks the mcdonnell line movement might go
 
What do you guys think about this fight and these odds?

Jamie McDonnell +500 vs Naoya Inoue -700:

McDonnell is going to Japan this Friday to defend his WBA BW title against the Japanese Inoue. McDonnell at 5'10" is crazy tall for the division and he is taking on the Japanese 5'5" Inoue who is coming up from Super Flyweight and who has won 13 out of his 15 bouts inside the distance. He's a really talented boxer and has a mean left hook.

McDonnell hasn't lost since 2008 and has never lost by KO, although he didn't look good in his last couple fights and I think he should've lost to Liborio Solis.

I'm going to watch some more tape on this in the coming days, but every bit of help you guys got is welcome.


Inoue is going to put a hurting on McDonnell, going to try and look to play mid round stoppage depending on the odds.
 
By the way for last night, Diaz lost against Russell. Wider decision than I saw it. Great fight nonetheless, Russell threw almost 1000 punches, most of them jabs, Diaz more power shots, in total they were pretty close on what landed.
 
Inoue is going to put a hurting on McDonnell, going to try and look to play mid round stoppage depending on the odds.
Mid rounds sounds good to me. I can see him getting worked and getting finished with a liver shot or something. Looks like some money is coming in on McDonnell though.

And man Naoya Inoue is exciting to watch! Beats the hell out of watching tape for WMMA fights, although I didn't mind watching Macedo - Lee yesterday.
 
ime, japanese judges are excellent in both mma and boxing, a possibe robbery should not factor in your decision. UK money is also pretty strong, crow would have more of an idea on how he thinks the mcdonnell line movement might go
Yeah it looks like money is coming in on McDonnell
 
Yeah it looks like money is coming in on McDonnell

the UK money is strong, they bet with their heart. ricky hatton/floyd mayweather was probably the best example. hatton struggled badly against 147 callozo in his only attempt at ww, luis was then completely shut out by mosely, yet mayweather inexplicably ended up getting down to around -150 on fight night after all the UK guys came into vegas
 
the UK money is strong, they bet with their heart. ricky hatton/floyd mayweather was probably the best example. hatton struggled badly against 147 callozo in his only attempt at ww, luis was then completely shut out by mosely, yet mayweather inexplicably ended up getting down to around -150 on fight night after all the UK guys came into vegas
That was one of those mega fights where you've got all the pissed up casuals getting involved making large bets based on emotion. Jamie McDonnell Vs Naoya Inoue is unlikely to evoke the same passions amongst the British public, albeit it will take a lot less money to move the line.
 
That was one of those mega fights where you've got all the pissed up casuals getting involved making large bets based on emotion. Jamie McDonnell Vs Naoya Inoue is unlikely to evoke the same passions amongst the British public, albeit it will take a lot less money to move the line.

and thats why i referred the line movement question to crow who is an expert with UK boxers. i have absolutely zero idea how much the UK public likes jamie mcdonnell.
 
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