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Im all for playing big dogs but loma is something else
Boxing Discussion IV
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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I know fuck all about both guys admittedly. I just saw +1400 and bet that shit.. i guess I am riding this one solo.
Most significant fight of the coming weekend is Marco Huck vs undefeated Mairis Briedis for the WBC interim cruiserweight title, and it has a pretty close line with Briedis currently ranging between -150 to -200 and the comeback on Huck between +120 and +170. I saw Huck's incredible fight vs Glowacki in 2015 and he's come back with two wins since that TKO loss. Haven't watched Briedis at all, but he's supposedly a pretty devastating finisher. Anyone have an opinion on this? Any value in the dog, or is there a decent enough price on the favorite this time?
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Looking to Cr0w on your post Jim. Really interested in his opinion.
Looks like a big step up for Breides and he hasn't gone many rounds too often but he hits hard.
Looks like a big step up for Breides and he hasn't gone many rounds too often but he hits hard.
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Hey guys not at home at the moment but will be later on and will get a write up done. I doubted the strength of Huck's chin / defence before and thought Kucher may be able to land the heavy power shots and Huck pleasingly proved me wrong. I'll try get a full write up later with more detail.
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Let me first just start by saying this is about as great a match up that can be made in the very exciting Cruiserweight division; both rankings-wise and stylistically. The gritty, tough and relentless Huck vs the murderous punch power and less shop-worn Briedis, this has fireworks written all over it. A Huck win cements him as one of the great Cruiserweights and a win for Briedis pushes him to the top for a potential showdown with Usyk to crown the king of the division.
These 2 have sparred together back in 2009, apparently Briedis got the better of the sparring but is well aware it was only sparring and several years have past since then. Since then Huck has gone on to become a long reigning champion whilst Briedis has slowly worked his way through the pro ranks and gained a reputation as a sparring killer despite being relatively unknown on the world scene until recently. Briedis has sparred with the likes of Huck, Kovalev, Włodarczyk and and Wladmir Klitschko and is known to many pros as a very dangerous opponent that not many want to fight. He is still currently a policeman and has stated even if he won this fight he is unsure whether he'd ever give his full time job up, potential red flag in my eyes but he certainly can't be knocked as he stands 21-0 with 18 knockouts.
Technically proficient, Briedis true strength lies in his knockout power which is evident by his record and by watching the way he boxes. He loves the looping overhand right which is definitely his most dangerous punch. Most of the time he lands it right behind the ear when he drops his opponents as opposed to flush on the jaw. He also has a nice left hook to the liver which was very evident when he stopped Angermann (part of an 8 man tournament on Eurosport, not shown on Boxrec). He likes to use a trick that I love to see which is slapping your opponents guard down with your lead hand and then landing the rear hook or straight to the head, punishing Lubos Suda with this in their fight. We've seen quite a few boxers use this, Lomachenko, Gvozdyk, Rigo, Mayweather and GGG just off the top of my head.
Briedis hasn't faced a who's who of opponents yet and this will definitely be his hardest fight to date but Manuel Charr in 2015, a fight in which a lot of Boxing fans thought he would lose against the veteran showed Briedis' ability as he stunningly knocked out the German in the 5th round. In his fight with Vallily, the Englishman did manage to land some clean early strikes on Briedis, nothing that wobbled him etc but did show there was openings to be found, the jab and overhand in particular. That being said, the lead uppercut, right hand he landed on Vallily in round 2 was absolutely beautiful. In that fight we again seen the lovely left hook to the body from Briedis that buckled Vallily badly and in the end lead to the finish.
There is one thing that is an almost certainty about Marco Huck, he is never in a boring fight. He's an all action boxer who loves to come forward in flurries, get into a dog fight and outwork his opponent. He currently holds the IBO Cruiserweight Title, has held the European Cruiserweight Title twice and held the WBO Cruiserweight Title from 2009 to 2015 making 13 consecutive successful defenses, which is a joint division record. He's been an elite Cruiserweight for years now and has plenty of experience and skill to give anyone a challenge.
Huck has decent technical skill but his game revolves around flurries, coming forward and outworking and outlasting his opponent. He has a nasty straight right that packs some good power behind it, he also loves the lead left hook in close often following it up with the straight right after. Huck has a massive experience edge here in the number of fights he has as well as the quality of opponents he has fought, facing some great opponents such as; Steve Cunningham, Ola Afolabi (x4), Denis Lebedev, Alexander Povetkin, Krzysztof Glowacki and Dmytro Kucher. He has only lost twice in the last 9 years, once a close majority decision to Povetkin in 2012 in which there is no shame and a knockout loss to Glowacki, a fight in which he had already knocked Glowacki down and was up on the scorecards before getting caught clean, finding his way to his feet and getting caught again and finished. Huck made the mistake of getting too confident against Glowacki due to having already knocking the Pole down earlier in the fight, stayed trading in the pocket too long and paid the price, I'm sure he's learned his lesson from the defeat though.
There's no two ways about this, Huck's style is dangerous for both him and his opponent. He has the ability to outwork his opponents and even finish them but that in turn gives his opponent the opportunity to catch him flush. For me this is about a 50/50 fight as you can get. Seeing Briedis knock out Huck and taking his place in the top 3 wouldn't shock me but seeing Huck go through some sticky situations and coming out on top through his toughness, grit and experience wouldn't shock me at all either. So going by that and the fact Huck is an underdog, there is definitely value in Huck here, especially if he can avoid the early danger from the Latvian. Huck can't afford to box as reckless as he usually does though, he needs to tighten up a bit and be more selective with his flurries, which he is capable of doing it's just a case of whether he will. If he does box reckless and charge Briedis down continually he will inevitably get caught eventually. Establishing the jab early and trying to stick to straight punches, not letting Briedis bully his way inside will be his keys to getting it done.
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There is definitely value in;
Huck ML [2.50]
Huck on Points [3.00]
Briedis 4-6 [9.50]
My main play will be Huck ML, some on Huck on points and smaller on Briedis 4-6 as I think if he does get a finish it will be in the early to mid rounds all depending on Huck's gameplan. If Huck can ware on him early on and push the pace I think Briedis will struggle to get the finish in the later rounds despite his KO power, facing a tough, gritty veteran when he's never gone 12 rounds and in Germany it'll be a big step up for him.
Hope this helps anyone looking to place a bet. Just my take on things, might not always be right and people may not agree with it but more than happy to help if I can.
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Let me first just start by saying this is about as great a match up that can be made in the very exciting Cruiserweight division; both rankings-wise and stylistically. The gritty, tough and relentless Huck vs the murderous punch power and less shop-worn Briedis, this has fireworks written all over it. A Huck win cements him as one of the great Cruiserweights and a win for Briedis pushes him to the top for a potential showdown with Usyk to crown the king of the division.
These 2 have sparred together back in 2009, apparently Briedis got the better of the sparring but is well aware it was only sparring and several years have past since then. Since then Huck has gone on to become a long reigning champion whilst Briedis has slowly worked his way through the pro ranks and gained a reputation as a sparring killer despite being relatively unknown on the world scene until recently. Briedis has sparred with the likes of Huck, Kovalev, Włodarczyk and and Wladmir Klitschko and is known to many pros as a very dangerous opponent that not many want to fight. He is still currently a policeman and has stated even if he won this fight he is unsure whether he'd ever give his full time job up, potential red flag in my eyes but he certainly can't be knocked as he stands 21-0 with 18 knockouts.
Technically proficient, Briedis true strength lies in his knockout power which is evident by his record and by watching the way he boxes. He loves the looping overhand right which is definitely his most dangerous punch. Most of the time he lands it right behind the ear when he drops his opponents as opposed to flush on the jaw. He also has a nice left hook to the liver which was very evident when he stopped Angermann (part of an 8 man tournament on Eurosport, not shown on Boxrec). He likes to use a trick that I love to see which is slapping your opponents guard down with your lead hand and then landing the rear hook or straight to the head, punishing Lubos Suda with this in their fight. We've seen quite a few boxers use this, Lomachenko, Gvozdyk, Rigo, Mayweather and GGG just off the top of my head.
Briedis hasn't faced a who's who of opponents yet and this will definitely be his hardest fight to date but Manuel Charr in 2015, a fight in which a lot of Boxing fans thought he would lose against the veteran showed Briedis' ability as he stunningly knocked out the German in the 5th round. In his fight with Vallily, the Englishman did manage to land some clean early strikes on Briedis, nothing that wobbled him etc but did show there was openings to be found, the jab and overhand in particular. That being said, the lead uppercut, right hand he landed on Vallily in round 2 was absolutely beautiful. In that fight we again seen the lovely left hook to the body from Briedis that buckled Vallily badly and in the end lead to the finish.
There is one thing that is an almost certainty about Marco Huck, he is never in a boring fight. He's an all action boxer who loves to come forward in flurries, get into a dog fight and outwork his opponent. He currently holds the IBO Cruiserweight Title, has held the European Cruiserweight Title twice and held the WBO Cruiserweight Title from 2009 to 2015 making 13 consecutive successful defenses, which is a joint division record. He's been an elite Cruiserweight for years now and has plenty of experience and skill to give anyone a challenge.
Huck has decent technical skill but his game revolves around flurries, coming forward and outworking and outlasting his opponent. He has a nasty straight right that packs some good power behind it, he also loves the lead left hook in close often following it up with the straight right after. Huck has a massive experience edge here in the number of fights he has as well as the quality of opponents he has fought, facing some great opponents such as; Steve Cunningham, Ola Afolabi (x4), Denis Lebedev, Alexander Povetkin, Krzysztof Glowacki and Dmytro Kucher. He has only lost twice in the last 9 years, once a close majority decision to Povetkin in 2012 in which there is no shame and a knockout loss to Glowacki, a fight in which he had already knocked Glowacki down and was up on the scorecards before getting caught clean, finding his way to his feet and getting caught again and finished. Huck made the mistake of getting too confident against Glowacki due to having already knocking the Pole down earlier in the fight, stayed trading in the pocket too long and paid the price, I'm sure he's learned his lesson from the defeat though.
There's no two ways about this, Huck's style is dangerous for both him and his opponent. He has the ability to outwork his opponents and even finish them but that in turn gives his opponent the opportunity to catch him flush. For me this is about a 50/50 fight as you can get. Seeing Briedis knock out Huck and taking his place in the top 3 wouldn't shock me but seeing Huck go through some sticky situations and coming out on top through his toughness, grit and experience wouldn't shock me at all either. So going by that and the fact Huck is an underdog, there is definitely value in Huck here, especially if he can avoid the early danger from the Latvian. Huck can't afford to box as reckless as he usually does though, he needs to tighten up a bit and be more selective with his flurries, which he is capable of doing it's just a case of whether he will. If he does box reckless and charge Briedis down continually he will inevitably get caught eventually. Establishing the jab early and trying to stick to straight punches, not letting Briedis bully his way inside will be his keys to getting it done.
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There is definitely value in;
Huck ML [2.50]
Huck on Points [3.00]
Briedis 4-6 [9.50]
My main play will be Huck ML, some on Huck on points and smaller on Briedis 4-6 as I think if he does get a finish it will be in the early to mid rounds all depending on Huck's gameplan. If Huck can ware on him early on and push the pace I think Briedis will struggle to get the finish in the later rounds despite his KO power, facing a tough, gritty veteran when he's never gone 12 rounds and in Germany it'll be a big step up for him.
Hope this helps anyone looking to place a bet. Just my take on things, might not always be right and people may not agree with it but more than happy to help if I can.
Awesome stuff i will take Huck. Not sure if i've ever lost tailing you on a dog who's around +200 or less. Willing to take my chances again. Won't go massive tho as it sounds like we could get a better price on Huck on live betting in the first half of the fight.
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i probably going to wait as well for a live bet opportunity
i was able to get amfield at +150 on saturday and he actually got as high as +225
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Yep i won big on Arnfield too on lb and you are right, i think Breides will come on strong early so we could get a great price.
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lol i didn't notice that! Gonna google Kelly now not seen her for ages!
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Are the elite bettors here on Spence? I know the fight isn't till May but that Spence money coming in now, he's gonna end up being -200 at least. I think he will destroy Brook and I rate Brook quite highly, Spence is something else though. Brook will have a tough cut back down to 147 and he got his orbital broken by GGG.
Don't like how Dominic Ingle threw in the towel either, sure GGG was gaining momentum but Ingle was so easy to just hand over Brook's 0 to GGG. At least give your guy a bit more of a chance, I know he's trying to protect him but cmon it's a fight.
Don't like how Dominic Ingle threw in the towel either, sure GGG was gaining momentum but Ingle was so easy to just hand over Brook's 0 to GGG. At least give your guy a bit more of a chance, I know he's trying to protect him but cmon it's a fight.
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There will be value in Brook, most will be on Spence. Brook is a lot more talented and skilled than people give him credit for and certainly has a chance here, albeit people think it'll be a relative cakewalk for Spence for some reason.
I'm not a huge fan on Ingle but he done the right thing 100% throwing in the towel, he suffered a broken eye socket which required almost immediate surgery, he potentially would never box again if they let him keep eating shots from GGG, toughness wouldn't have gotten him anything there apart from potential retirement, he gained a lot of credibility and respect for that fight regardless. No doubt the defeat hurt more than the injury would have for Brook but there was no reason at all to continue.
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Yes in hindsight it was the right thing to do, especially regarding the orbital injury, but I don't think Ingle knew that it was broken at the time.
I think Brook is super talented, IMO it's him, Thurman and Spence at the top of 147. I think Spence is the best, even though he's still a bit unproven, he doesn't have any big wins yet, Brook is a big step up.
I just don't like Brook's current circumstances, he's coming off a loss, significant injury and surgery. And he's fighting his biggest test at 147. I have to favour Spence, I think he will finish Brook too, he's just so damn impressive. He's the best athlete at 147 and he's the best pure boxer but he can punch as well.
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I think Spence is the future, but not sure I can favour him against Brook in Sheffield at this point in his career. He's largely unproven despite the sparring tales, his best wins are Algieri and Bunda, who are both respectable but still nothing that proves anything to me yet, but like I said, I do believe he is the future.
I'd still have Pacman as king of 147, definitely Thurman next but Spence, Brook, Garcia etc all up there.
His current circumstances aren't great but he's certainly capable of bouncing back. He carries big power at 147 and is a great counter puncher, GGG couldn't put him to the canvas 2 weight classes up so I don't see Spence of being able to flatten Brook or run through him. Plus the scorecards were even at that point (I did have GGG up though). What I will say though is if anyone is going to back Spence I'd do it now while you can still get him at a good price because that line will likely drop heavily come closer to the fight.
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The fight being at home is good for Brook, Spence has only fought outside the US once and that was in Canada. While I don't like this for Spence, I can't say that it will play much of a factor in the fight. Already taken the shot on Spence at -110, great price for the future of boxing, although he won't be the future if he loses, don't see it happening though.
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So you on brook in that one Cr0w?
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