Bellator 198 - Fedor vs Mir - Rosemont Illinois
- Thread starter Naught2Sixty
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These Bellator odds lol.
The Matador has been around forever it feels like. He deserves a title shot after this I think. He should style his way to a Unan dec. Sam isn't hard to figure out. Danis haha what a character, pass though. I don't think Torres is a chump or anything but he very likely will get choked by Gracie here. Gerald Harris though...Man is a step up from Salter imo. There's a lot working against him here but he stands a shot. HUGE experience advantage for him. Might be worth a shot.
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I know Harris is tough, but this is super short notice, Lovato is much taller and has improved striking and Harris' main game is wrestling, which is probably going to end up with him in Lovato's guard, a dangerous position against a BJJ master like Lovato. If Harris stands with Lovato, I think he gets picked apart by Lovato's long reach. Lovato can kick with impunity if he is not afraid to get taken down and his jab has proven dangerous as well. Would not be surprised if Lovato can get a TKO on the feet. Initially thought Harris could be a tougher fight than Salter, but after thinking about it more, I bet Lovato at -300 to win 1u.
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Harris said in an interview that he had been looking for a fight even in other leagues (Mentioned a PFL negotiation in an interview) and stated he’s been training about six weeks. Granted it was a bit of training but not a camp. He’s literally coming off the couch whereas Lovato has had a full camp. Red flag anyone? Coming out of retirement as well(October of 2017) but his wrestling style could give Lovato problems imo mainly takedowns against the fence. Even a crafty guarder like Lovato will have trouble creating space and getting a submission off when he’s pinned on his back in an awkward position against the fence. Harris demonstrated this in that Dave Branch fight (8 years ago) where Branch was touted as a Gracie black belt on the broadcast but yeah that's a black belt not a master. Lovato's bjj is awesome to watch. I watched a few of his gi and nogi matches. I just can't eat the -300 chalk for Lovato but Harris becomes a small play for me heading into the +3xx’s. I can see a bit of value in Harris there. Maybe I’m crazy.
Side question: Do you think Lovato was going to open as a similar favorite against Salter?
I was expecting a closer line against Salter with Lovato probably still favored, -175 maybe.
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For fun? Bc it’s more exciting when you have action on it? Granted, those remarks could be taken directly from a textbook about gambling addiction lol
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These fights are depressing. Bellator has really devolved into pro wrestling... not even PPV pro wrestling, but those Saturday morning cards where the Brooklyn Brawler is already in the ring while the guy they are trying to push makes a dramatic entrance.
I guess the market is such that there is only room for one legit major fight promotion.
I guess the market is such that there is only room for one legit major fight promotion.
Fedor vs Mir could easily have been in the UFC not long ago before Mir fought out his contact if Fedor had come over. The UFC has Vitor vs Machida coming up at their next PPV which isn't far off from a Legends fight. The rest of the main card has some legit talent, mostly grapplers turned MMA fighters in Neiman Gracie, Dillon Danis and Rafael Lovato Jr. The UFC also has CM Punk booked in Chicago soon.
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I Keep hearing from ppl how fat mir is leading up to this but had not seen any proof of this at all, he looks in decent shape here, lack of usada maybe but definitely a positive if like me you've alreayd taken his ML 1.8 seems to good to be true, worst case i expect i can freeroll at 1.6-1.65
EDIT: I'm more concerned about that goofy face in the first pic, he looks like he has the IQ of gaethje and diego's love child
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Ok who's betting Manny at -700. Ridiculous price.
Are you liking anything on the Cage Warriors card?
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Love me some CW's betting but this card is a complete pass based on the lines I've seen at Betsafe. Bak Jacobsen is a good fight but i don't really have a lean. Bak will tap him if he can get him down but Bak's striking is atrocious and Jacobsen has one hitter quitter power.
Yeah there is that much that i like on the card either. I’m somewhat intrigued by Dakaev at 3.05 and Foss at 1.95. You reckon we will get props for the Bak/Jacobsen fight?
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Yes, but it's not 80% of their main card. The implication of my criticism is that there are 4 fights where the favorite is > 4 to 1, i.e. four fights where Coker is more of less picking the winner. Machida vs. Belfort is at least a reasonably close fight.
It'll be entertaining... it just sucks for betting.
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Betsafe normally offer props for main card but im limited to shit but Jacobsen KO and Bak sub will be interesting.
Mason is probably shot but i can't bet Foss he sucks. Dakaev could be interesting but his last fights not available.
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Mir was fat back in January. There really wasn't any question he'd get back in reasonable shape for the fight (he's been around long enough to know his body).
He's always made goofy faces through his career. Nothing new LOL.
I think you are being optimistic about $ coming in on him enough to move the line a whole lot though. Less casuals bet Bellator than UFC. So it's more sharps and hardcore fans betting Bellator. My guess is that most sharps are passing on a side here (maybe they bet the o/u if they see value like I do?) given how much a crapshoot this fight is. Which leaves hardcores and there's still plenty of them that want to believe in mythical Fedor and that he has one more run left. Dog odds gives them more reason to take a shot.
I honestly don't see the line moving much. I could be wrong of course, but I think it hovers about where it is.
There are quite a lot of Dakaev’s earlier fights on YouTube. It’s difficult to get a good read on him though since French MMA allows only limited ground game (no ground and pound so they have to go for quick subs or get stood up). He has shown good takedowns though and decent cardio. He kind of reminds me of Medan with the way he looks for takedowns. His ground control is a complete unknown though. I believe he is coming in on short notice and will be undersized against Grant.
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For sure sounds like a pass especially as Grant's just been getting quick wins over scrubs! Lots of unknowns it seems.
Hopefully Betsafe give me ridiculous prop odds again like Molly McCann by KO in her last fight!
https://mma-today.com/bellator-198s...ice-fight-almost-like-youre-bar-someone-jumps
Harris doesn't seem too happy that the fight is at 188lbs instead of the originally proposed 190lbs. He doesn't think that it should be too much of an issue though.
Harris doesn't seem too happy that the fight is at 188lbs instead of the originally proposed 190lbs. He doesn't think that it should be too much of an issue though.
