Bellator 194 - Nelson vs Mitrione - Connecticut

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I am really, REALLY rooting for Bader to win a boring jabfest vs King Mo in the next round where Mo makes it look more competitive than it should. Bader needs to win, not look super impressive, but take no damage. And I'm sure most of us are on the same page as to why...
     
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  2. NinjaCat456

    NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Winning small better than losing big.
     
  3. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    it will be priced in. too fresh in the memory. but yeah. hopefully above scenario helps
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I agree. Just hoping to get odds as good as they can possibly be. Esp with the hedge so clear cut.
     
  5. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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    -1.5u

    McGeary is utter gash. I hate myself for betting that clown.
     
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  6. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Lost my 2 plays on this Bellator card. I still kinda stand by the value on Julaton +275, since she was slightly better fight IQ away from winning the first 2 rounds and won the third in my book.
     
  7. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    3U at the O1.5 Nelson-Meathead have
    me up 2U.
     
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  8. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I could see a book like 5dimes fucking him on a draw in the tournament since it goes to an extra round.
     
  9. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Yeah. I was kind of wondering what a fourth round finish would count as so far as GTD/ITD is concerned.
     
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  10. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Bella 194 Net: +27.50
    nelson DEC: 30 for 159 / nelson +3.5: 120 for 100 / nelson NSC: 100 for 148 / O1.5: 75 for 77.50
    Freire -178: 445 for 250
    / freire DEC: 40 for 105.60 / O2.5: 151.50 for 153.50
    Julaton +235: 50 for 117.50
    McGeary NSC: 198.50 for 150
    / ITD: 132 for 70
    ---

    nemkov was the fuckin side here. i focused on "he might gas late" too much. dude's a beast. stupid way to bet the fight.
     
  11. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    wow, ZERO talk about the pitbull fight, haha, i think the girl fight put everyone to sleep for a half hour or so?
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Yeah was thinking that LOL. Campos just willing to exchange with a guy who hits harder and who has a better chin.
     
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  13. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    it was my biggest play by a bunch, hehe, was just shocked no one talked about it during / after the fight, too.

    love the pitbull bros, man. they've been legit for a long time. patricky is improving, too.
     
  14. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    He looked awesome

    This was the one fight I didn’t watch tape on and it was the easiest money on the card. Didn’t look like Campos has a chance
     
  15. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    I'd say Ana Julaton was a bad bet because she is terrible, however, Heather Hardy isn't much better. McGeary looked abysmal as well against Nemkov. At least Pitbull winning and the main event going the distance got me nearly back to even after a very poor start. I feel lucky to get away with only a small 0.35 unit loss.

    Bellator 194 Results


    Roy Nelson +3½ points (+100) vs Matt Mitrione $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Roy Nelson/Matt Mitrione Over 1½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Roy Nelson/Matt Mitrione Over 1½ (-167) $167.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Roy Nelson/Matt Mitrione goes 3 round distance (+135) $75.00 for $101.25= $101.25
    Roy Nelson wins by 3 round decision (+500) $40.00 for $200.00= -$40.00
    Matt Mitrione wins by 3 round decision (+278) $75.00 for $208.50= $208.50

    Patricky Freire (-178) vs Derek Campos $178.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Patricky Freire wins by 3 round decision (+234) $50.00 for $117.00= -$50.00

    Liam McGeary (-130) vs Vadim Nemkov $130.00 for $100.00= -$130.00
    Liam McGeary wins inside distance (+140) $50.00 for $70.00= -$50.00
    Liam McGeary scorecards = no action (-140) $140.00 for $100.00= -$140.00

    Ana Julaton (+290) vs Heather Hardy $200.00 for $580.00= -$200.00
    Ana Julaton +3½ points (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= -$135.00
    Ana Julaton scorecards = no action (+170) $100.00 for $170.00= Cancelled
    -----
    Total Loss= -$35.25
     
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  16. JkMMA

    JkMMA Brown Belt

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    Yep lol. I'm also new to betting so fuck betting big.
     
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  17. JkMMA

    JkMMA Brown Belt

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    Lol if u bet on Ana julaton. Her mma skills awful. Just watch her one fc fights.
     
  18. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    She was a huge dog and Hardy looked brutally bad too. Just...not as brutally bad as Julaton. I didn't bet the fight at all, but I'd have honestly felt worse laying -350 or whatever on Hardy than taking a tiny stab on Julaton.

    Mostly though, I'd just like that 17 minutes of my life back that I spent watching that slop.
     
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  19. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Hmm. Again, no bet on that fight for me so this isn't me justifying a play on Julaton. But a lot of "how that fight went" was because of Julaton's lack of any fight IQ, as opposed to a giant skill disparity between the two. Hardy was clearly better on the mat. By far, and that was easy to see. But every time the fight went to the ground, it was because Julaton initiated the clinch (and then tried to drag Hardy down on numerous occasions). Now, if someone bet Hardy because they somehow knew Julaton would be really stupid and do that (even though she's a boxer and TKD fighter) then okay. But had she kept distance and tried like hell to make it a kickboxing match, Hardy looked like she'd have obliged. And they seemed to suck equally as much at distance, with neither doing anything meaningful at all.

    Congrats on winning $ on Hardy, you cashed your bet and she easily won so you can't be criticized for that obviously.
     
  20. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Blue Belt

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    With hindsight of course the justification can't match how the fight went. "Yes, Hardy sucks too" is where your justification for the betting the big underdog should lie. The same vein of logic applied to Rose vs. JJ, for example. "Yes, Rose is good too" could be simply applied and therefore an easy gamble on the big underdog (who had paths to victory) was the correct play.
     

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