Bellator 193 - Larkin vs Gonzalez - Temecula

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 15, 2018.

  1. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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  2. chemmy Blue Belt

    chemmy
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    Fernando Gonzalez +245 o2½ -150
    Lorenz Larkin -290 u2½ +130

    JJ Ambrose +180 o2½ -125
    Saad Awad -220 u2½ +105

    AJ Matthews +150 o1½ -130
    Kendall Grove -170 u1½ +110

    Jake Smith +170 o1½ -110
    Steve Kozola -200 u1½ -110
     
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  3. chemmy Blue Belt

    chemmy
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    Not much standing out to me. Anybody have any solid leans?
     
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  4. SBJJ Red Belt

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  5. MixedMartialFarts Jiu-Shitsu and Pooey Thai

    MixedMartialFarts
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    I'm thinking of a parlay with Grove/Kozola. It's Jake Smith's first Bellator fight and he's had a couple split decision wins on the regional scene, decent ground game, Kozola is better all around and a finisher. He's 3-1 in Bellator.

    I don't like betting Grove but he's been losing to really good guys, he should be better on the feet in this matchup but definitely alot better on the ground and I think he finishes it with a submission.

    Still need to do some tape on Ambrose but maybe thinking of putting Awad in there because he only loses to the best in Bellator and he always goes for the finish, will be interesting when this one hits the ground.

    Also love betting Gonzalez as a dog, will probably put a small bet on him as some insurance if my parlay falls through. A lot of pressure on Larkin here, will be watching some interviews and checking out the weigh in before that bet.
     
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  6. lefontes Black Belt Muay Thai - Blue Belt BJJ

    lefontes
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    Im on all 4 dogs for this event.
     
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  7. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    I will take Kozola. Smith went to war in his last fight with a regional guy and ate so many shots. Kozola has legit power no way he's eating those shots from Kozola. He was also gassed from mid round 1.
     
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  8. MixedMartialFarts Jiu-Shitsu and Pooey Thai

    MixedMartialFarts
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    Ambrose and Gonzalez are the best dogs, I have a feeling the other two will be throwing money away, unless you have different info?

    EDIT: Betting against Grove is never a terrible idea and I might be taking him out of my parlay lol. But I can definitely recommend not to bet against Kozola.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 25, 2018
  9. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    Never bet bellator events
     
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  10. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    No no. Never bet on ex UFC fighters in Bellator.
     
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  11. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Took Matthews +150 and o1.5 -130

    Matthews has been really composed lately, really thought he won that decision vs fialho last fight. He's fighting patiently.

    Grove is on decline, imo. Dude is 35 but older in fight years. Think Matthews will be the stronger guy in the clinch and I think there will be a fair amount of that here. Matthews might even score some takedowns
     
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  12. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    Sounds fair
     
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  13. JkMMA Brown Belt

    JkMMA
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    U sure man? Larkins lookin pretty lean and big compare to fernando :)
     
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  14. JkMMA Brown Belt

    JkMMA
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    Grove got sub by salty in the first round in 4min 30 sec. How of those minutes, how did Kendall grove do? Was he winning? Did he get dominated the whole time?
     
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  15. SlayKatzNY White Belt

    SlayKatzNY
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    I like Saad in this spot. Seasoned, tested, well-rounded veteran. Saad is who he is at this point, but I think that blend of skills will be enough to net him a W against Ambrose. Come fight night Saad will likely be bigger than Ambrose, fought and defeated a FAR SUPERIOR caliber of fighter than Ambrose and is certainly the more devastating puncher.

    W/out delving too deep into analysis, I've been unimpressed in the limited footage I've seen of Ambrose. He didn't "wow" me in any one area, but did look competent in all facets. Overall I think Saad pieces Ambrose up for a decision or gets reckless and submitted. For my money, I like Saad to do Saad like things; strike with a mix of takedowns (if necessary) and get the job done.
     
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  16. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Salter is a killer. All wins are finishes, most very early. Fantastic grappler. Totally different fight here..

    Matthews is gonna want to bang but I think they'll inevitably clinch and think he's gonna find he's the stronger guy when they do.

    Small play, tho.
     
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  17. JkMMA Brown Belt

    JkMMA
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    But my question is, how did grove do against salter. I never actually seen the fight. Yes he got subbed, but prior to that, how did he do?
     
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  18. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

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    Some generic striking early, salter shot, took his back, pounded him and then choked him
     
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  19. JkMMA Brown Belt

    JkMMA
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    Not sure if I can change my bet but I alrdy parlay on larkins, aj, and awad.
     
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  20. MixedMartialFarts Jiu-Shitsu and Pooey Thai

    MixedMartialFarts
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    Bodog has Kozola at +195. Strange.
     
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