Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 15, 2018.
Fernando Gonzalez +245 o2½ -150
Lorenz Larkin -290 u2½ +130
JJ Ambrose +180 o2½ -125
Saad Awad -220 u2½ +105
AJ Matthews +150 o1½ -130
Kendall Grove -170 u1½ +110
Jake Smith +170 o1½ -110
Steve Kozola -200 u1½ -110
Not much standing out to me. Anybody have any solid leans?
I'm thinking of a parlay with Grove/Kozola. It's Jake Smith's first Bellator fight and he's had a couple split decision wins on the regional scene, decent ground game, Kozola is better all around and a finisher. He's 3-1 in Bellator.
I don't like betting Grove but he's been losing to really good guys, he should be better on the feet in this matchup but definitely alot better on the ground and I think he finishes it with a submission.
Still need to do some tape on Ambrose but maybe thinking of putting Awad in there because he only loses to the best in Bellator and he always goes for the finish, will be interesting when this one hits the ground.
Also love betting Gonzalez as a dog, will probably put a small bet on him as some insurance if my parlay falls through. A lot of pressure on Larkin here, will be watching some interviews and checking out the weigh in before that bet.
Im on all 4 dogs for this event.
I will take Kozola. Smith went to war in his last fight with a regional guy and ate so many shots. Kozola has legit power no way he's eating those shots from Kozola. He was also gassed from mid round 1.
Ambrose and Gonzalez are the best dogs, I have a feeling the other two will be throwing money away, unless you have different info?
EDIT: Betting against Grove is never a terrible idea and I might be taking him out of my parlay lol. But I can definitely recommend not to bet against Kozola.
Never bet bellator events
No no. Never bet on ex UFC fighters in Bellator.
Took Matthews +150 and o1.5 -130
Matthews has been really composed lately, really thought he won that decision vs fialho last fight. He's fighting patiently.
Grove is on decline, imo. Dude is 35 but older in fight years. Think Matthews will be the stronger guy in the clinch and I think there will be a fair amount of that here. Matthews might even score some takedowns
U sure man? Larkins lookin pretty lean and big compare to fernando
Grove got sub by salty in the first round in 4min 30 sec. How of those minutes, how did Kendall grove do? Was he winning? Did he get dominated the whole time?
I like Saad in this spot. Seasoned, tested, well-rounded veteran. Saad is who he is at this point, but I think that blend of skills will be enough to net him a W against Ambrose. Come fight night Saad will likely be bigger than Ambrose, fought and defeated a FAR SUPERIOR caliber of fighter than Ambrose and is certainly the more devastating puncher.
W/out delving too deep into analysis, I've been unimpressed in the limited footage I've seen of Ambrose. He didn't "wow" me in any one area, but did look competent in all facets. Overall I think Saad pieces Ambrose up for a decision or gets reckless and submitted. For my money, I like Saad to do Saad like things; strike with a mix of takedowns (if necessary) and get the job done.
Salter is a killer. All wins are finishes, most very early. Fantastic grappler. Totally different fight here..
Matthews is gonna want to bang but I think they'll inevitably clinch and think he's gonna find he's the stronger guy when they do.
Small play, tho.
But my question is, how did grove do against salter. I never actually seen the fight. Yes he got subbed, but prior to that, how did he do?
Some generic striking early, salter shot, took his back, pounded him and then choked him
Not sure if I can change my bet but I alrdy parlay on larkins, aj, and awad.
Bodog has Kozola at +195. Strange.
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