Bellator 189 - Budd vs Blencowe - Oklahoma

Another vote for Lovato. I wouldn't touch his line near even money since he is still pretty unproven at this point, but it seems like a decent stylistic matchup that he could potentially win in any realm.
 
When he can't get the takedown and wants them, he looks tired, desperate, and fairly vulnerable. It's similar to what you used to see with Maia. As long as he isn't taking damage though, he's a huge threat still as that all changes when he gets it to the ground. I still think he's the clear play at current odds, but I could definitely see Honeycutt cruising with a good gameplan.
 
Against a much better striker who is his size Lovato might be awkward on the feet, but I believe Lovato's diverse striking is actually going to be as good as Honeycutt's here. Chris has decent boxing and a fair amount of power but Rafael can probably kick with impunity and likely win the clinch on the feet as well. I can't find the info online, but I'm curious how long 6' 3" Lovato's arms are compared to 73" for Honeycutt.
 
I thought hed open a favorite but I cap him maybe around pick em, slight dog ish odds. So this is a god send. He doesn't even need to take Honeycutt down, if he can just grab him he can work from the clinch or pull guard. And Honeycutt is soooo used to preferring working in the pocket since he wrestles everyone, so it'll be interesting to see if he can't break that habit.

Plus I have confirmed something I said earlier. Lovato does have a jeet kune do background, his father was a jeet kune do instructor. Explains his understanding of range which is the thing thats stood out to me on the feet when he fights.

I agree with all of this. Really hard to watch Lovato and listen to him speak and not think he's awesome. Probably correct to just smash him at these odds and ask questions later.
 
joining the Lovato train :) he looks at least a weight class bigger then Honeycutt
 
Against a much better striker who is his size Lovato might be awkward on the feet, but I believe Lovato's diverse striking is actually going to be as good as Honeycutt's here. Chris has decent boxing and a fair amount of power but Rafael can probably kick with impunity and likely win the clinch on the feet as well. I can't find the info online, but I'm curious how long 6' 3" Lovato's arms are compared to 73" for Honeycutt.

His fight vs Rhodes listed his reach at 77.5"
 
I jumped on the +210 as a potential free roll with your buddy going to be hitting Lovato then dug into tape to see how much I wanted to keep on. Lovato good at keeping it long range on the feet, spamming kicks mainly to head and body probably inviting guys to take him down. As JB noted it will be interesting to see how Honeycut strikes at range. Just read an interview that he won't be looking for the TD, but his whole game revolves around it from what ive seen. Will probably only leave 1-2u on Lovato at a good price (depending how much lines continue to shift) as this could be an awkward striking match. Lovato obviously a beast on the mat and would be happy if Honeycut obliged him there.
 
i FREAKED out when twitter alert said piccolotti was +155 or whatever last night, haha. it was -180. and i should've taken it. but it's still just -185, so i'm glad i didn't, cause i can bet more at this line now.

piccolotti is just better. he's faster. he's the better technical striker and the better grappler. AND rickels is taking this on short notice.

large bet on piccolotti done at -185.
 
so fucking salty i missed +225. i was ready to bet it and got greedy / stopped paying attention at the same time. i hope it goes back to +200ish

ehhh fuck it. small play for me on lovato +150, really salty i missed out on that movement

 
American BJJ black belt and world champion Rafael Lovato Jr. towers over former welterweight wrestler Chris Honeycutt in this middleweight matchup. Huge size difference and Honeycutt is mostly a wrestler & grinder with decent boxing. Lovato is one of the very best BJJ & submission artists from the U.S. ever to compete in MMA and has much improved striking as well. 2 units on Lovato at +225. He can win this by KO, sub or maybe even decision.

Props to JimGunn for being on the lead on this. At the very least we all have a nice arb opportunity.
 
What do you think about Sam Sicilia making his Bellator debut vs Marcos Galvao at featherweight? Not sure why Galvao moved up to 145 pounds. Sam is clearly bigger than Galvao and has more power, although Galvao definitely has the submission advantage.
 
Blencowe +350 .25u

Lovato Jr +225 5u

Piccolotti -185 1u


Playing the line movement on Lovato, planning to leave 1-2u on him
 


hoooooooooooooooly shit lovato vs honeycutt staredown, omfg, look two weight classes apart. and what's honeycutt gonna do if he doesn't like the standup? wrestle? idk if he wants to.. i think his main gameplan will be to strike...

ok, full unit lovato +150. i wish to hell i got that +2xx. oh well.
 
hoooooooooooooooly shit lovato vs honeycutt staredown, omfg, look two weight classes apart. and what's honeycutt gonna do if he doesn't like the standup? wrestle? idk if he wants to.. i think his main gameplan will be to strike...

ok, full unit lovato +150. i wish to hell i got that +2xx. oh well.
Jesus Christ
 
hoooooooooooooooly shit lovato vs honeycutt staredown, omfg, look two weight classes apart. and what's honeycutt gonna do if he doesn't like the standup? wrestle? idk if he wants to.. i think his main gameplan will be to strike...

ok, full unit lovato +150. i wish to hell i got that +2xx. oh well.

Jesus, Jim mentioned a big size difference but wasn't expecting it to be that big. Fuckin jacked to shit too.
 
Jesus, Jim mentioned a big size difference but wasn't expecting it to be that big. Fuckin jacked to shit too.

Seriously. Lovato is Ja-ja-ja-ja-jaaacked and should be even heavier come tomorrow night whereas Honeycutt looks like he's already filled out. Lovato takes trips to Brazil. What's Bellator's drug testing like?
 
3.7u piccolotti -185

1u lovato +150

i might leave it at that, unless i see some movement and/or props on the other two fights.
 


No surprise. Zane GOATmon and Eddie MerGOATo predict Lovato #Respectthevivi
 
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